The Shakedown 6/30/19

G20 in Focus

All eyes on the G20 Summit and what will come about when Trump and Xi meet, and whether or not trade talks will progress or regress. More tariffs or no tariffs? Same stuff we've been hearing for months, just another episode. If trade talks progress, it should be good for the market, if we hear talks regressed and there will be another series of tariffs, you would expect that to be bad for the market in the short term. Regardless, we're focused on the price action, just good to know what's going on.

From a technical standpoint the market had a sell off Tuesday that was pretty nasty, right after we broke all time high resistance in the days prior. After seeing that action, I was expecting much more downside action than we got the rest of the week. Wednesday through Friday were very healthy "nothing" type consolidation days, with the internals showing a lot of strength. Friday we saw great action, and if there wasn't this meeting over the weekend, I would have gone out very long. There are a ton of charts out there really setting up. But, in this headline driven market, anything can change at the drop of a tweet, so have to remain cautious. 

We're officially halfway through the year and the S&P is up 17.3% in that time, but just 3.7% in Q2. However, I've seen much "easier" trading environments in the first halves when the S&P was only up low single digits --- so I take that number with a grain of salt. It doesn't paint the full picture of the geo-political risk story we've been dealt all year.

Regardless, let's blow this second half out of the water.

DRI Long

This DRI had earnings on June 20th, gapped down huge, only to be ferociously bought up all day, which landed it on our radar. We have been staring at this name closely since that huge earnings day, hoping it would give us an entry. Well Thursday and Friday's tight consolidation looks like the best we're going to get. We've gotten a few days of rest and I have a feeling the volume will come back next week through 122, with a bigtime macro level at 124. 

Trigger: $122

Stop: 119.69

Target: $132+

Hope to see you in the chat Monday!

Weekly Watchlist coming in the following email.

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