The Shakedown 5-25-25

Firstly before I get into the report -- trying something new this Monday with the extra day off. We will go over this newsletter as a team over discord video tomorrow. Come to the alpha chat at 4pm East Coast time, 1pm West Coast Time, or 9pm European time. If you want to discuss any charts not in this newsletter, be prepared with your gameplan (entry/stop/target). Looking forward to seeing everybody! Hopefully it goes well and it becomes a regular weekly call as a team.

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The broad market moved sideways all week until President Trump surprised markets with a 50% tariff on the EU. This caused the market to gap down just over 1% to close the day down 0.68%. The market was experiencing another shock from the Trump administration -- but if it truly believed Trump wanted to keep a 50% tariff on the EU, we would be down a whole lot more than 0.68%. We just got news over the weekend that after positive discussions - we struck a deal with the EU to delay those 50% tariffs a month to further negotiate them. This tells us Friday's gap down / weakness is a big ol "nothing burger."

This news has markets gapping up 0.70% on its first reaction -- completely negating Friday's down day.

**Remember we'll be walking into a big Monday (Tuesday i know, same premise) gap up and patience/waiting for that gap to fill is typically most prudent when looking for entries during big gap ups

Here is the current structure of the SPY daily chart. I deleted all moving avg's except 20ema and 200sma because they are the most important right now. If you look at the 20ema in purple, you will notice it closely guided the action lower on the way down. Once we reclaimed the 20ema, that's what lead to the face ripping rally. Now, we are retesting the 20ema for the 1st time as support since we ripped through and caused the rally. I am looking at this as the first real buyable dip. There are tons of charts setting up and strong themes playing out which tells me I want to be long.

Here is the current structure of the SPY weekly chart. We had a huge run off lows and popped through the 30 week moving avg. The 30 week moving avg was support the entire bull market the past 3 years. When we broke it downward, it lead to a huge selloff. Now that we've reclaimed it, the ideal scenario is to hold this area and build off the 30 week support. Many will quickly call this a 'bearish shooting star' but when lookibng deeper into the context, we gain a better perspective. We had a 20+% move off lows, Trump has done a complete 180 Trump on tariffs, along with the 180 this administration has done in regards to cutting government spending (i.e. --- they're not). This could spell trouble over the long term - say, years down the line. But in the context of the next few weeks/months in the market, we can remain in this strong cycle. The current weekly chart could be setting up a lot like 2020 below.

2020 Comparison

News wise - prepare yourself for a busy shortened week. There are Fed speakers galore along with PMI Thursday morning, an inflationary measure. Along with all that, we have a monster week of earnings on tap specifically with NVDA reporting after the close Wednesday. There are a ton of tech favorites reporting this week including OKTA, VEEV, ZS and so many more.

Let's get into the report.

Economic Data This Week

Upcoming Earnings

With Elon going back to his intense hyper-focused work schedule and leaving politics behind, I anticipate this to be a big boost to TSLA stock. This is a robotics company and will trade on the future prospects of huge revenue based on its humanoid robots. This will be in focus for me Tuesday morning.

Nuclear Theme

On Friday, Trump signed 4 executive orders aimed at revitalizing the US nuclear energy sector, with the goal of QUADRUPLING nuclear power capacity by 2050. These orders streamline the permit process, boost nuclear fuel supplies & authorize reactor construction on federal lands, particularly for military and AI data center use. This is a HUGE bill that had the sector breakout on its highest volume ever. The stocks are too stretched to look for immediate entries. But with consolidation, these should be a focus to get into with calculated entries in the coming weeks.

GRAL Long

GRAL is an explosive name that is trying to break out of a 5 week base within a tight consolidation. The stock moved 14% higher the week off its earnings and had a relatively tight inside week last week giving us a great trigger entry. Over 41.25/42 resistance area, this one looks like it will explode higher and potentially retest its recent highs.

Trigger: $41.25/42

Stop: $36.89

Target: $57-62+

The Shakedown 5-25-25

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