The Shakedown 5-11-25

Happy Mother's Day to all the moms apart of TE!

We continue to see strong action internally within stocks. While broad markets slowly rise and chop into the 200sma, we are seeing an amazing earnings season under the hood with tons of names breaking out on their reports. The general consensus was that we would have an ugly earnings season with the negative economic backdrop but it's been anything but that. The underlying action in stocks leads me to believe we can continue to gain through the 200sma and continue a healthy bull run. We are climbing the ultimate wall of worry and stocks have been responding in a big way. We are extended on the daily charts in the SPY and QQQ, especially given we'll be gapping up 1% tomorrow on some sort of China trade deal news. The most recent support test was the 10ema on Fed day Wednesday which lead to a big market pivot and strong move higher. I would very much welcome broad market chop as it will setup so many of the best earnings winners.

Speaking of gapping up, we got breadcrumbs signifying some sort of China-US deal over the weekend. We will hear details tomorrow but I have a sneaking suspicion it's a reset to 10% tariffs for a negotiating time period. While the gap up likely makes tomorrows action difficult, we should be focusing on individual stocks and how they respond. The 20ema in both SPY and QQQ is this market's line in the sand. Support tests should be bought until they stop working. I am thinking this market is more looking like the 2018 comparison which I'll show below.

Another huge week of earnings on deck. We have lots of data this week with CPI Tuesday being the biggest and PPI Thursday. There are Fed speakers all week.

Let's get into the report.

Economic Data This Week

Upcoming Earnings

Another big week of earnings on tap. RGTI ASTS JD OKLO CYBR KRMN CRWV GRAL BABA WMT CAVA some of the names I'm most looking forward to. HUGE Earnings Watchlist that must be 100-200 names at this point below.

Tons of charts out there setting up with such a strong earnings season. Split this section up into two parts -- "actionable" and "waiting on daily for setup"

Actionable Setups

Waiting on a setup for these names whos weekly charts point to higher prices but daily charts lack a great entry location from risk/reward standpoint

BROS Long

BROS had a great beat on earnings with a strong response out of the stock. Weekly chart setup is A+ here which makes this my favorite setup heading into the week. Inside day Friday, if triggers Monday would likely tier stops between Fridays low ($62) and earnings day lows ($58). Would love to see this go sideways a few days and tighten up that entry location. Watching $65 for the entry.

Trigger: $65

Stop: $57.89 / 61.89

Target: $88+

Hope to see you in the chat Monday!

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The Shakedown 5-11-25

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