Are we having fun yet?! I personally love the challenge of trying to figure out these types of markets. There is so much action everyday.
This week, we saw stocks complete their perfect bounce into resistance 1 of the market downtrend which began on March 23rd when the market bottomed (for now...?). The move from March 23rd lows to Tuesday's high was a 20.6% move from lows into a previous support-turned-resistance level, which is where we began to fail Tuesday and reverse lower. Wednesday we saw some more selling then Thursday and Friday were virtually inside days where the market went sideways.
Will we see a continuation move lower this week, or are stocks ready to pivot higher from here?
I believe this micro-support 1 (pictured below) will be a key area to watch this week. If we take that area out quickly, and we see volume pressure increasing through those lows, then it would make sense to test the March 23rd lows sooner rather than later. I will likely look to short some names if I see that area sharply break, which is $244-245 in the SPY. If that area holds we could definitely see another move higher for stocks. There is a ton of overhead resistance in that area though, so we will see how its handled. Will remain flexible in this tricky environment.
Still personally think we have some more downside ahead. If we retest those March 23rd lows, that's the first spot I'll begin looking for an upside reversal in stocks.
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