The trend is your friend until it bends -- and this week we finally saw a slight bend. With indexes posting a fifth consecutive loss Friday, this was the first week without a single positive close since September. The market sent out a huge warning shot Monday with a massive gap up that viciously sold off in the morning, albeit recovering some of those gains later in the day. That action was what we needed to see to peel back the heavy risk on the long side, as the market internals were pretty disastrous. The majority of the market weakness came later in the week, signaling a major change from the grind-up mode the market had seen the previous 10 weeks.
While we saw a relief rally Friday, this week's action created some decent overhead resistance, with more and more names appearing "heavy." I would suspect we're going to enter a pretty choppy period for weeks to come, selectivity will be more key than ever. This information tells me to cut down the watchlist and be much stingier with where I use my risk.
We're seeing money rapidly rotate and the best looking stocks are mostly REITs and Utilities -- signaling more of a risk-off environment for our favorite high beta and tech stocks.
After the market has big runs and cools out like we're seeing now, there is generally discovery mode in solidifying new support and resistance levels. These are usually quieter weeks for me as you tend to get different action day by day, strong as ever one day and utterly weak the next. So I'm anticipating a more difficult trading environment, seeing as the probabilities aren't on my side as much in these environments, I decrease my overall risk levels. Account management is always the top concern.
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