What a year that was 2024. Looking back on the year, I am overjoyed at the thought of how much this group has grown as traders this year. We saw a ton of huge development within our small community, and it could not make me more proud and thrilled at the thought of what the future has to offer for us. I hope you all enjoyed Christmas week and recharged the batteries a bit.
Heading into the week, anticipating light volume Monday/Tuesday with markets closed for New Years Wednesday. Hoping volume comes back Thursday/Friday, but could wait until next week. We recently sold off hard on the Fed after a big run. We pivoted, rallied higher the next few days before retesting the selling area Friday, leading to another move lower. Friday's turn lower creates the first lower high after the selloff. In the broader trend, we still have higher lows begetting higher lows, so I am remaining flexible in my thought process in regards to the markets direction the first month of the year. The question remains - can the bears push the market lower or is this another consolidation before the uptrend resumes again?
Individual stock action is what leads my inner compass as always. This week's scan was only decent, not a ton of charts I'm looking to buy heading into the week. With the market chopping in a wide range, I think it's best to remain extremely selective and stick to the best of the best setup-wise.
Rates continue to soar and it's definitely something I'm concerned about. The 10 Year treasury has risen from 3.6% to 4.6% in the past 3 months. If we remember back to the end of October '23, rates went on a punishing run and finally topped at 5%. While they were on said punishing run, it was a huge overhand on equities causing broad market weakness. Once they topped, this allowed the huge equity run of the past 14 months to begin. If rates continue to run to that 5% level from 2023, I would expect this to spell trouble for equities. We will see, something to keep in the back of the mind.
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