The Shakedown 12/1/19

Same Same? Or Something Different?

This market has continued to grind higher this week, though we saw some fatigue out of stocks Friday. This uptrend is firmly in tact and has held the 8sma the entire way up. The SPY is currently trading about $2 above that moving average, so if we pulled back to that area, $312.50, I would look to see whether the buying is still there, or whether we're due for a bigger pullback. The other cues I will be watching is the IWM, which we saw finally break above is year long resistance last Thursday. This indices is a bit extended as well and could use a healthy retest of that previous resistance level, which we will see if it turns into new support.

Trump signed a US backed Hong Kong Human Rights and Decency bill, siding with Hong Kong over China which China has promised to retaliate if the US meddled in their affairs as such. The reaction to this bill has been pretty muted thus far. We'll watch to see if the trade war ramps up this week, or the strong market continues to shrug off this news in this hyper uptrend.

We have a bunch of technology and software stocks reporting earnings this week that are always action packed. I'm keeping my eyes closest on COUP and CRM for positive reactions. Others on the radar will be ZS, OKTA, ESTC, ZM, and DOCU. 

Click the Pic for Detailed Look

MSI Long

MSI is coming off a very tight inside week, working its way up to an inflection point. Price is beginning to get very coiled and contracted between a bunch of moving averages, telling us the stock may be ready for an expansion soon in the form of a breakout.

We want to see this blast through the 168 problem area on huge volume to confirm our thesis. The past 3 days it has been holding 166 very nicely and I will look to use that area for a stop for some momentum stock, with 164 being the proper stop location.  

An added layer of probability is the weekly chart's 30 week moving average hugging the price, which it has exploded off of since the macro uptrend began in late 2017. 

Trigger: $168

Stop: $165.89/163.89

Target: $178-188+

Hope to see you in the chat Monday!

Watchlist coming in the following email.


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