Broad Market Outlook
Who would have thought, at the start of this month with the major markets showing us bearing engulfing candles all over the place, the writing on the wall seemed obvious, that we were going to roll over and have a correction.
Mr Market always elusive and keeping us on our toes, went with the opposite as the major markets snapped right back towards there respective highs.
If the market wants to push higher, that's great but as traders buying up here near the retest often is a more costly route then buying near support (which always seems so obvious and easy after the fact).
As tricky as this market has been lately, these can be better times when having more then one overall approach to the market can help smooth out the dips and rips.
I was having a trade review with an Alpha member on Friday and we hit on this topic on the benefit of different approaches. Recently on the active trading side, opportunities have been slim, yet if you have a longer term model (M1) or a 401k working for you, those accounts have continued to benefit from the minor drops and run ups right back to highs.
When you are able to separate your active approaches from your long term ones, knowing there strengths and weaknesses while following those rules for each when the going gets tough, we are often rewarded in time.
This week for myself, I was reminded of this when at first I felt foolish. When looking to rebalance, we have to look to sell our best name and add to our worst. Yet there are times when those winners will continue higher leaving us feeling a bit foolish.
I felt somewhat foolish about taking profits in Apple as it continued to trade higher, while immediately not caring that I sold ETSY at a point that was 10% higher then where it ended the week.
Yet when I looked at where the money went to, which was Bumble, I still was up the same percentage amount that Apple had increased.
Bumble increased by the same percent as Apple, while I was able to lock in a solid percentage return in Apple tax free and improve my cost basis in Bumble knowing that I will not look to take profits in this name until its back near its IPO highs.
The initial foolish thought, does not feel as foolish right now, but it is still too early to tell.
I personally am starting to dip my toes back into names from an active trading standpoint focusing on the same as always, names that are bull flagging near all time highs (ZBRA) and names that are trading in very tight ranges near there major support levels. Hope you too, can continue to scan the market and find some opportunities to take advantage of as well!
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EBAY for now is holding up vs its prior pivot low, down through 65 could just as well be a decent short, for now, looking to buy up through 68.
Still flagging in this range and was not ready just yet to breakout, keeping the stop vs 36 for now and will look to add above 42 if given the chance.
After reversing the post earnings run up, PAYC is looking vert similar to how NKE traded after its post earnings run up, after shaking out the earnings low, it eventually made a run back up to the all time high. Keeping an eye on this PAYC to see if something similar is in store.
We can see how WDC was in a Stage 4 Breakdown from June till November and the Stage 1 Base has overlapped starting in September until now. We can see the clear out vs 55 and this horizontal level of resistance at 60 still setting up.
We have a few exciting experiences planned for the year ahead. We hope you find a trip that sparks your interest to come enjoy and network with other like minded members!
4th Annual Vermont Snowboarding Trip Jan 20th-23rd
2nd Annual Blue Ridge Rally May 13th-15th
2nd Annual Long Beach Island June 15th to 19th
4th Annual Vermont Trip
Video from the last snowboarding trip!
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2nd Annual Blue Ridge Rally
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2nd Annual Long Beach Island
Video from the last beach week vacation!
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