Broad Market Outlook
Last week was simply one of those weeks where had you done less, you often ended up with more. It has been frustrating from an active standpoint as most ideas looked promising only to fall flat on there faces last week.
We saw the uptrend that the broad market was respecting since October finally break to the downside that has taken some confidence out of our sails. As the next key area of 375 could keep the overall market more range bound inside a new flag.
Yet often, when we want the next pivot low to hold, more often it needs to push further. The real important area would be the 52 week low retest of 350. As the market has trended higher since October, the thought of a retest of the recent lows or putting in new lows were somewhat out of the question, seem to be back in style now.
As the market pulled in somewhat more aggressive then we have seen all year, the SVB bank collapse did not do anything to help anyone's fears as the "first bank failure since 08" narrative made its way across all the major news outlets.
Now just like most thought when the SBF scam was going to take down the crypto markets and it would unravel into ours. It didnt and after a day or two, other then the victims of the scam. The markets shrugged off the news and kept it moving.
As much as they try to push this bank run and helicopter FDIC stepped in to shut down SVB, they will just be sold off to another bank on the cheap.
As the market closed the week looking quite down beat, there may be a bounce or suckers rally that could follow next week, yet the overall theme seems to be lower prices in the short term.
From an active standpoint being patient while the dust settles and the macro and micro fears subside. Then we can spot those support buy backs and take advantage when the timing is better.
Macro Rotation Outlook
Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
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Defensive - sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
Big Picture Set Up
As much as I wanted to put sitting in cash for the best idea for the week ahead. This LRCX is still setting up for a move up through $500, it more then likely will shake out this mini pivot low area of $470 first. But after that, a move back up through $500 in time could be a solid set up.
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