Broad Market Outlook
Another flip flop action week where things were looking a bit bleak going into the end of the week only for the market to snap back higher to keep us bull flagging between 400 and 420 in the S&P.
With a full year offically in the books on this stage 1 base, we are starting to see more individual names breaking out of there major bases as they start to enter there stage 2 breakouts.
We saw this with SHOP last week that was a name left for dead in 2022 that is just strating to wake back up.
We saw the same with SHAK, I know alot of stocks with S's, but you get the picture, after a year of both of these names and countless others. Some of these names are finally pushing out of there bases as they start to form new flags as they start the climb back to highs. Its a slow climb at the start as there are so much overhead resistance above, but still a great sign for us bulls.
As more and more names start to push out of there stage 1 bases and enter there stage 2 breakouts in time eventually the broader markets will follow suit.
As we saw on Wednesday the FED has shown us the pivot away from aggressive rate rising is over. As they start to turn that dial back down and adjust course, just be prepared for the new headlines that are going to spin rate cuts into a bad thing for the market. As people continue to grab at straws for this recession to come. When in reality we will be back at highs as most still look out for the recession that never came.
With the regional banks still getting smoked and they appear to be deals, those deals will continue to get cheaper. It seems that sector really needs to see new lows below the panedmic lows to reach its max pain area. Still seems too soon to jump in, let these names continue to get smoked and steer clear. Just remember how long it has taken the overall market to base out. These sector is still in a clear breakdown stage. Avoid avoid avoid.
It will be much easier to shift the focus to the sectors that have been doing well lately.
The Consumer Discretionary sector has been flagging out nicely and names like AMZN have started to come back into play as that is another name still trying to work its way out of its major base.
Healthcare, Tech and even Telecom are all looking solid for potential moves higher. While sectors such as the Financals, Energy names and the Small Caps seem best to be avoided in the short term.
Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
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Defensive - sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
Big Picture Set Up's
We spoke last week how we did not want to chase CRM 4th day up into $200 and it seems buyers felt the same as a doji at highs formed at resistance in the flag. As it continues to flag between $190 and $200, it looks poised for a $10 move high once it can clear this $200 area.
DHI continues to form this earning flag, we did not want to chase the $110 area last week as it was still too soon. Earnings flags often need 4-6 weeks to set up. Good to see it pull back into the range of the tight flag it has been in. Keeping an eye on it for that move through $110 in time.
Got ticked in early in the week through $32, it pulled back and held the $30 area for now. Added on Friday above the prior HOD as it continues to flag. It may need to shake the $30 area first before it really gets going. If it does not get some follow through on Monday or Tuesday will look for a better spot risk wise to get out of the trade until its ready to breakout.
The support buy back in TSLA is off to a solid start, the short term move would be to this gap gill area around $6 higher from where it closed on Friday. The bigger target area would be in the $200s if it can climb back into the broader range its been trading in. Current stop $160 and if we get nice day 2 action will move up to PLOD.
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