Broad Market Outlook
The start of the week felt as if a break of the major area of support seemed somewhat obvious or expected as we saw the 10 year flagging at resistance and starting to break out towards the 4% that has acted as resistance for the last quarter.
Yet with that fakeout breakout in the 10 year as it started to fade, which is a good sign for the equity markets. The broad market caught a bid and for now has respected the trend line that has been putting in successful higher lows since the October lows in 2022.
For now it seems the most likely sceniro would be 390 to continue to act as support and 420 to continue to act as resistance. Leaving the market in a nearly 8% range for us to trade within for the time being.
As the overall up and down swings start to tighten up inside this macro base pattern, we will have to continue to focus on more support buy back set ups and looking to sell more into resistance then buying breakouts.
Sector wise we are seeing Financials setting up right under there base break area, along with Healthcare that are finally starting to wake up after being out of favor the last few months. The Consumer Discretionary is also setting up near its base breakout area and Amazon is also setting up with a similiar set up around the recent base its been forming.
For the week ahead, I will be focusing on AME to see if it can make its way back towards the 148 Blue Sky Breakout area. GL if it can somehow still hold this 120 level of support and if so, will add above $121 and eventually $124 for its Blue Sky Breakout. FTV will be on the radar as it works its way back to the $70 base break area and lastly QSR to see if the support of the flag its in continues to hold above $63 for a support buy back up through $64.50
Macro Rotation Outlook
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Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
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Defensive - sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
Big Picture Set Up
Started a feeler position in AME and will keep the stop vs 135 for now to see if it can work its way back to the 148 blue sky breakout area.
Started a feeler position in FTV with a stop vs 66 as it works it way back towards the 70 base break area.
Started a feeler position in GL with a stop vs $120 that has held to the penny two days in a row, another attempt at support and this trade is bound to fail, but if it can hold this area, I will add above $121 and then look to buy the new all time highs through $124.
We have been trying this 68 breakout with no luck but recently, QSR has came into support and for now has been respecting the 63 level, will look to start a position back up through 64.50 to see if sneaking in off support gives a better chance of being in for the 68 breakout down the road to new highs.
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