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Broad Market Outlook
The rally continues as this easy, easy market drifts higher and higher. It gives people the chance to trade without much effort or thought, looking back at most of my own trades recently, nothing really has failed. That is not because you or I are market wizards, its simply because everything is going up. We have seen this a few times, when the market is this easy, most except it to be easy forever, and when the market gets tough, most thing the market will be impossible for even longer then forever, if that is even possible.
This last week, I started to see some lazy trading from a few in the chat pop up, the "hey I did absolutely no research, can someone tell me something to buy?" or "you should buy this stock (insert dumb idea) its up 70% in 3 days". These are the red flags that I tend to look at and take notice us, same when we see traders quit when the market gets tough (green circles on chart below) and that's when we want to load up.
Right now we are trading almost exactly how we were going into the start of 2018, see charts below:
Going into 2018, we were (at the time) hitting new all time highs day after day, in a slow and steady grind higher, then it got parabolic as the moves started to get more vertical and euphoria was everywhere. What followed was the first correction that we had in years. We have not gotten too parabolic, yet the rug pull comes when everyone is green with greed. Just be prepared and do not try to buy the first red day or 2nd that we get after a 3 month to new all time highs.
Macro Rotation Outlook
Enjoy this uptrend as it seems to be starting to get near an end, we could easily still see another week or two of the easy drift higher, just enjoy it and don't start bitching and moaning when we see some red days.
9000 stop as we are starting to get a bit parabolic
MDY Mid Cap Stocks
370 stop is as clear as day
IWM Small Caps
Small caps continue to run up back to the prior highs from 2018, only a matter of time before we are back to that level.
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Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
Weekly low stop at 253
Finally this telecom is breaking out and ripping back to that prior high much faster that I could have ever imagined, still sitting on the ole hands in this sector.
Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
127 stop, as VAW continues to inch its way out of this prior resistance area and grind back to the prior high.
VCR Consumer Discretionary
REIT's running back int that prior high, we did a great job grabbing stock up off support.
Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
VDC Consumer Staples
188 stop vs that weekly low and let it breakout higher.
IBB Bio Tech
Bio's ran into this previous pivot high and has started to flag, in time we should expect a breakout through this $124 area back to the prior high.
New highs tend to be met with new highs, keep upping that stop and let it ride higher.
The New Big Picture Set Up
This VMW has been basing out in a tight range that as been a battle ground for this stock for quite some time now. I will be looking to buy above $155. In the short term we could expect a move to the $170 area and if we give it enough time, we can see a retest of those prior highs down the road.