The Big Picture

Financial Planning
Take any hundred people at the start of their working careers and follow them for 40 years until they reach retirement age, and here's what you'll find, according to the Social Security Administration:
1 will be wealthy, 4 will be financially secure, 5 will continue to work because they need to, 36 will have already died, and 54 will be broke living off Social Security and help from family. 5% are successful while 95% are unsuccessful. Care to guess which group had financial planning?
Clients pay thousands of dollars a year to have a financial plan run for them at my investment bank, we include this benefit to you for no cost. If you would like us to put a plan together for you and your family so you can get closer to being in the 5%, shoot me a message on GroupMe saying "planning" and we will show you the simple steps to get you to your first your first million.
Broad Market Outlook
The rally continues as this easy, easy market drifts higher and higher. It gives people the chance to trade without much effort or thought, looking back at most of my own trades recently, nothing really has failed. That is not because you or I are market wizards, its simply because everything is going up. We have seen this a few times, when the market is this easy, most except it to be easy forever, and when the market gets tough, most thing the market will be impossible for even longer then forever, if that is even possible. 
This last week, I started to see some lazy trading from a few in the chat pop up, the "hey I did absolutely no research, can someone tell me something to buy?" or "you should buy this stock (insert dumb idea) its up 70% in 3 days". These are the red flags that I tend to look at and take notice us, same when we see traders quit when the market gets tough (green circles on chart below) and that's when we want to load up. 
Right now we are trading almost exactly how we were going into the start of 2018, see charts below:
Going into 2018, we were (at the time) hitting new all time highs day after day, in a slow and steady grind higher, then it got parabolic as the moves started to get more vertical and euphoria was everywhere. What followed was the first correction that we had in years. We have not gotten too parabolic, yet the rug pull comes when everyone is green with greed. Just be prepared and do not try to buy the first red day or 2nd that we get after a 3 month to new all time highs. 
                                                                                              From Ben G



Macro Rotation Outlook

Dow Jones
282 stop 
Enjoy this uptrend as it seems to be starting to get near an end, we could easily still see another week or two of the easy drift higher, just enjoy it and don't start bitching and moaning when we see some red days. 
9000 stop as we are starting to get a bit parabolic 
MDY Mid Cap Stocks
370 stop is as clear as day
IWM Small Caps
Small caps continue to run up back to the prior highs from 2018, only a matter of time before we are back to that level. 
If you have a friend that can benefit from what you have learned from Trading Experts, shoot me there contact info and we will see if we can help!
Sector Rotation
Sensitive -  sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions. 
VGT Tech
Weekly low stop at 253 
VDE Energy
82 DCA
VIS Industrial
152 stop
VOX Telecom
Finally this telecom is breaking out and ripping back to that prior high much faster that I could have ever imagined, still sitting on the ole hands in this sector. 
Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
VAW Materials
127 stop, as VAW continues to inch its way out of this prior resistance area and grind back to the prior high.
VCR Consumer Discretionary
188 stop 
VFH Financials
75 stop 
REIT's running back int that prior high, we did a great job grabbing stock up off support. 
Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.

VDC Consumer Staples
158 stop 
VHT Healthcare
188 stop vs that weekly low and let it breakout higher. 
IBB Bio Tech
Bio's ran into this previous pivot high and has started to flag, in time we should expect a breakout through this $124 area back to the prior high. 
VPU Utilities
New highs tend to be met with new highs, keep upping that stop and let it ride higher. 

The New Big Picture Set Up
This VMW has been basing out in a tight range that as been a battle ground for this stock for quite some time now. I will be looking to buy above $155. In the short term we could expect a move to the $170 area and if we give it enough time, we can see a retest of those prior highs down the road. 
Target $205
Entry $155.05
Stop $144.89


Leave a comment