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Financial Planning
Take any hundred people at the start of their working careers and follow them for 40 years until they reach retirement age, and here's what you'll find, according to the Social Security Administration:
1 will be wealthy, 4 will be financially secure, 5 will continue to work because they need to, 36 will have already died, and 54 will be broke living off Social Security and help from family. 5% are successful while 95% are unsuccessful. Care to guess which group had financial planning?
Clients pay thousands of dollars a year to have a financial plan run for them at my investment bank, we include this benefit to you for no cost. If you would like us to put a plan together for you and your family so you can get closer to being in the 5%, shoot me a message on GroupMe saying "planning" and we will show you the simple steps to get you to your first your first million.
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Broad Market Outlook
Santa brought coal for everyone last year and this year he brought extreme greed.
Last Christmas the market sold off 20% and everyone thought the world was ending.
This Christmas the market is up 39% and everyone thinks the market will continue doing the same in 2020.
Just like the crowd was dead wrong last year, I would suspect the same follows suit (broadly).
This week I started to see some of the cockiness come out from complete novice traders, one who found a fool proof 10 minute day trading strategy that has worked for him the last 2/3 months that as he claims will always work. Yet he has only tested it in a market that has been up 34 of the last 50 days.
Can we see SPY 350 in 2020? Of course and it will probably end higher in 2020, however the market does not move in a straight line. We need breakdowns, so we can breakout. We have been gifted a very very easy 3 months of trading.
Just when market participants start to get conformable (lazy), that's when the market pulls the rug over everyone and wipes out months of gains in a few days.
Continue to find the best set ups, avoid the B's and C's, set your goals for the month and year ahead. And be prepared, don't start boo'ing when we start seeing some 1% down days.
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Next Trading Experts Meet Ups!
January 9th Vermont
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Macro Rotation Outlook
Dow Jones
272 stop as the new highs continue.
SPY
306 stop as we continue this Santa Claus rally.
Nasdaq
8400 seems to be the new line in the sand as we continue to grind to new highs.
MDY Mid Cap Stocks
Midcaps are in second to last as they have finally retested the prior high as the larger cap spaces have already taken out those prior highs.
IWM Small Caps
The small caps are still in last place major wise however they are trying there best to retest the prior high.
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If you have a friend that can benefit from what you have learned from Trading Experts, shoot me there contact info and we will see if we can help!
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Sector Rotation
Key points
- Best suited in a taxable account
- We are willing to hold positions against us as overall sectors and markets are much less volatile than individual names.
- We are buying or adding (dollar cost averaging) when there are actionable set ups.
- We are selling for either profit or getting out for break even if better opportunities arise elsewhere in other sectors.
- If you have more than $50k, we can set this model up for you
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Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
VGT Tech
Keep upping those stops, for now 230 seems to be a safe spot to limit the downside.
VDE Energy
Energy which has been lagging all year, continue to battle with this $80 area, still has a long road ahead, however if you are patient, could be one of the better performing holds sector wise is 2020.
VIS Industrial
150 resistance is now becoming support, if we start to break below 150, it could be time to lighten up.
VOX Telecom
After 2 long years writing the Big Picture Telecom is finally turning around and we should see a retest of that prior high in 2020.
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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
VAW Materials
Materials are finally inching back towards the next battle ground at 138, after that we should see a retest of the prior high at 145.
VCR Consumer Discretionary
180 is the real out for this sector as it takes out new all time highs.
VFH Financials
The financials have came a long way recently, starting to tighten up the stop vs 75 for now.
VNQ REIT
We can see a new range forming in the REIT sector between 89 and 96, for now the out will be below 89.
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Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
VDC Consumer Staples
158 stop in the staples as it ends the week at a new all time high.
VHT Healthcare
In 2018 we saw an almost 5 month run in the healthcare sector, so far we are on a 3 month run, will keep a tighter stop at 188.
IBB Bio Tech
IBB working back to retest and should break that 124 as it continues its vertical assent to the $132 retest, for now a 117 stop should keep you in the game.
VPU Utilities
The real line in the sand is 136 as it works back to the 145 retest, we should expect to see this become the new range in this sector for the time being.
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The New Big Picture Set Up
XLNX
This XLNX, we thought it might have been a short down through $88 however it showed us the opposite was true, as we can see there's a base forming under this $100 level and above that and then $108 down the road it should be able to make its way back in the high $120's, low $130's.
Target $132
Entry $100
Stop $95
