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Financial Planning
Take any hundred people at the start of their working careers and follow them for 40 years until they reach retirement age, and here's what you'll find, according to the Social Security Administration:
1 will be wealthy, 4 will be financially secure, 5 will continue to work because they need to, 36 will have already died, and 54 will be broke living off Social Security and help from family. 5% are successful while 95% are unsuccessful. Care to guess which group had financial planning?
Clients pay thousands of dollars a year to have a financial plan run for them at my investment bank, we include this benefit to you for no cost. If you would like us to put a plan together for you and your family so you can get closer to being in the 5%, shoot me a message on GroupMe saying "planning" and we will show you the simple steps to get you to your first your first million.
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Broad Market Outlook
We saw our first pull back in over 2 months and it lasted a crazy 2 days! It was a earth shattering 3% pull back, if you stepped away from your computer for a moment you would have missed it.
From how quick that dip got bought up, really showed us how many people are on the side lines just waiting to jump in on any dip. Frankly, I would have liked to see more downside, however the market will do what it wants. Really anything above 300 in the SPY is fair game and healthy action.
Going into the end of the year, the volume will lighten up as most will be away from there trading desk, I comically showed up to our prop desk on Christmas eve, years back and was the only one of two people there, normally 300+ people would be there (Shake was not the other, if your wondering, he was smart enough to know, not to come in). Volume will be light, so don't be shocked if we don't catch a monster breakout on December 20th.
Use these last few weeks to recap your trading for 2019, how much you made, what were your best trades, what were your worst trades, lessons learned, and things you will focus more on in 2020. Set dollar targets for the year, if you made $5,000 this year, aim for $20k next year, if you made $20k this year aim for $60k next year.
Often times, I see traders get lost because that do not know what they are aiming for. Get specific on what you are aiming for and go after it!
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Next Trading Experts Meet Ups!
January 9th to the 12th Killington Vermont
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FA story
I got fired!
A client fired me this week, now this does not happen too often, and actually in the last year, this has only been the 2nd time a client has fired me. Now the ironic part is tomorrow, is his son's 2nd birthday, information that I made sure to remember when he told me a year ago.
Now why did he fire me?
Was it performance? It was not performance as I made him a shit load this year relative to what he could have done on his own.
Was it cost? For his account, he was up $6,000 and it only cost him about $200 for me to manage said account. Now that retail trading is free, he thinks he can pocket the small difference in the cost for me to run his money. The problem with that is......
He hasn't traded a single share this year!
Being cheap, is often a much costlier route.
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Macro Rotation Outlook
Dow Jones
272 resistance turning into support, 272 stop.
SPY
That first little dip got bought right back up, showing us all the people on the side lines waiting for any 1 day dip. 304 stop.
Nasdaq
The first pull back got bought back up, which is a good sign, still same 8,000 stop.
MDY Mid Cap Stocks
As we said last week, the Mid caps seem to be a month ahead of the small caps, if the mid caps continue to inch higher, small caps should follow in time.
IWM Small Caps
Small caps are finally starting to turn that 160 resistance into a support area.
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We are looking to bring on one more mentor to help with sales, if you are interested please shoot me a PM!
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Sector Rotation
Key points
- Best suited in a taxable account
- We are willing to hold positions against us as overall sectors and markets are much less volatile than individual names.
- We are buying or adding (dollar cost averaging) when there are actionable set ups.
- We are selling for either profit or getting out for break even if better opportunities arise elsewhere in other sectors.
- If you have more than $50k, we can set this model up for you
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Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
VGT Tech
First pull back after the new highs got bought back up, for now a 224 stop.
VDE Energy
We are starting to see buyers stepping up the support levels, it can easily still take out this low, however my money is still on energy being one of the better performing sectors in 2020.
VIS Industrial
Seems the industrial's still want to hang over in this 152 area before any real push to new highs.
VOX Telecom
Telecom finally turning 90 which was resistance for almost two years into support, by end of year we could easily see a retest of the prior highs.
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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
VAW Materials
128 resistance is now becoming support in this VAW as it continues to work its way back to highs.
VCR Consumer Discretionary
VCR continues to wedge tighter and tighter with a clear out vs 180.
VFH Financials
Finally retesting the prior high going back to 2017!
VNQ REIT
Starting to flag out, above 94 would be the spot I would look to add.
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Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
VDC Consumer Staples
For now a stop vs 154 is a decent spot, we have to expect this 158 to retest pretty soon.
VHT Healthcare
180 stop and let VHT work its way higher!
IBB Bio Tech
Once it can clear 124, the next stop is a retest of the prior highs, for now a 116 stop should give you enough room to stay in.
VPU Utilities
Would not be too surprised if we at some point "h" down through 136 in 2020.
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The New Big Picture Set Up
OKE
Going into 2020, I believe one of the best performing sectors will be energy, as we have seen in the past, last years laggards (sector wise) tend to be this years leaders as they present better risk reward trades in the bigger scheme of things.
OKE is an energy name, however its in the transport business, regardless of the price of oil, they still need to get the oil from A to B, which is why this stock is flagging at all time highs, while most energy stocks are bear flagging near lows.
Regardless of the fundamental jazz, we care about the chart, we took it for a quick 3rd times a charm trade and made a few bucks, then took it again on a support buy play and also made a few dollars.
OKE has been good to us so far, and its currently showing us a tight flag under this $72 for what seems to be the 8th time, on only $2 risk, this should be good enough for at least a retest of the prior high.
Big Picture Target $100
Short Term Target $77
Entry $72
Stop $70
