Take any hundred people at the start of their working careers and follow them for 40 years until they reach retirement age, and here's what you'll find, according to the Social Security Administration:
1 will be wealthy, 4 will be financially secure, 5 will continue to work because they need to, 36 will have already died, and 54 will be broke living off Social Security and help from family. 5% are successful while 95% are unsuccessful. Care to guess which group had financial planning?
Clients pay thousands of dollars a year to have a financial plan run for them at my investment bank, we include this benefit to you for no cost. If you would like us to put a plan together for you and your family so you can get closer to being in the 5%, shoot me a message on GroupMe saying "planning" and we will show you the simple steps to get you to your first your first million.
Broad Market Outlook
We started the year at dead lows and the outlook was bleak for most. 11 months later, we've had one of the best markets in the last decade. Now currently we are at highs and in the short term, will most likely continue that trend, until the market is ready to correct. Recently we saw Healthcare and Tech breakout on a retest of the prior high, which is showing us the markets impatience to settle out and set up. We see this in regular stocks all the time, the base off lows takes a year to set up, then it flags for a few months, then breakouts out and the consolations get tighter and shorter as people chase the highs and then it all comes back down in a snap. We are seeing some of this action broadly, so we need to be cautiously optimistic. Take your trades and respect your stops, just when we get cocky and confident the market unloads that nasty sucker punch to the gut.
In the beginning of this year we set a goal as a team to make $5 million dollars in profits, I will admit this was an ambitious goal and we have got almost to the 50% market, as of yesterday from the PnL's posted over the last 11 months, there has been over $2,200,000 in profits posted! Sure we might not check off this $5 million goal this year, however you bet your ass that we will make $6 million next year!
It has been great to see the Alpha members who have started to pick up on the monthly goal setting and as more of you start to build that into your monthly routine, I know we will check that goal off in 2020.
A big thing that I have noticed is the lack of a specific dollar amount most are looking to make in a given month or year. To keep it simple, set a $10,000 goal for the year, if you have already done that, add up where you are at and set the goal 25% higher!
This is a great time to reflect on the lesson's learned and get those goal's set for the year ahead!
Next Trading Experts Meet Ups!
January 9th Vermont!
Macro Rotation Outlook
276 or 272 would be decent spots for stops as the large caps put in a new all time high.
Blue skys up here and it is still grinding, nothing really parabolic yet, just be ready once it does, that a correction tends to follow very soon after.
New highs tend to be met with new highs, 8,000 stop
MDY Mid Cap Stocks
Mid Caps seem to be a few weeks ahead of the small caps, we can see how they broke 360 and are now respecting 360 as support that was once resistance.
IWM Small Caps
Small caps finally joined the party breaking the 160 level that has been resistance for the entire year, a good sign!
If you have a friend that can benefit from what you have learned from Trading Experts, shoot me there contact info and we will see if we can help!
- Best suited in a taxable account
- We are willing to hold positions against us as overall sectors and markets are much less volatile than individual names.
- We are buying or adding (dollar cost averaging) when there are actionable set ups.
- We are selling for either profit or getting out for break even if better opportunities arise elsewhere in other sectors.
- If you have more than $50k, we can set this model up for you
Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
Tech like healthcare, broke out on the retest of the prior high, the market is showing us its impatience to wait for resistance to form, 224 stop.
This sector was left for dead in 2019 and still feel it can be one of the best performers in 2020, will be adding up through 80.
Industrial's seem to be a tad extended, a 152 stop might not be such a bad idea.
Telecom is finally breakout out of this 2 year long base, time to get patience, 90 tight stop, 84 real stop.
Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
Materials finally working there way above the 128 level that has acted as resistance all year, next battle ground will be 137, 128 stop.
VCR Consumer Discretionary
VCR started to break this wedge, we can see clear as day 180 is the line in the sand for now.
A point away from the retest of the prior high, time will tell if it will blow through it like healthcare did, or if it will act as a resistance level, 73 stop.
REIT's like Utilities seem to be losing some steam after the year they had, 90 stop to protect profits!
Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
VDC Consumer Staples
VDC just started to tickle that 158 breakout level, 154 stop and hold on!
We do not see this too often however every once and a while the retest of the prior high breaks and does not look back, for now 181 stop.
IBB Bio Tech
Bio's are working there way to retest those prior highs, after the crazy run its been on, I have a stop for some under 118 after this 20 point plus move in a month!
As we start to see more lower lowers then higher highs, could be time to look to lock in any gains on bounces, with a 136 stop.
The New Big Picture Set Up
This $180 level has been setting up for some time, and most recently it has the tightest out possible vs $172. When this one goes, we cannot miss this one!