Broad Market Outlook
We are back into full swing trading mode, if that has not already been pretty obvious from the $100k plus week the Alpha chat had! We made it through the choppy waters and now it should get a bit easier to see follow through in our set ups.
Let's continue to shift away from the faster kicks and focus more on really stretching these winners out. Was great to see members this week putting up 30,40,50%+ chops.
Now when the market tends to get easier, its very easy to get a bit lazier, and that's what we don't want to happen. Still be picky with your set ups, know when to pass on B or C set up, and when you really find a great set up, be ready to put more money into them.
There is nothing worse then chasing a bunch of 5's when you could focus on that one 10. There are a ton of set ups out there, let's just try to avoid those mickey's and focus on the macro's!
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Financial Planning
Take any hundred people at the start of their working careers and follow them for 40 years until they reach retirement age, and here's what you'll find, according to the Social Security Administration:
1 will be wealthy, 4 will be financially secure, 5 will continue to work because they need to, 36 will have already died, and 54 will be broke living off Social Security and help from family. 5% are successful while 95% are unsuccessful. Care to guess which group had financial planning?
Clients pay thousands of dollars a year to have a financial plan run for them at my investment bank, we include this benefit to you for no cost. If you would like us to put a plan together for you and your family so you can get closer to being in the 5%, shoot me a message on Group Me saying "planning" and we will show you the simple steps to get you to your first your first million.
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Next Trading Experts Meet Ups!
November 16th Boston
November 26th Denver
January 9th Vermont
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Macro Rotation Outlook
Dow Jones
272 Stop
SPY
300 Stop
Nasdaq
8000 Stop
MDY Mid Cap Stocks
Mid caps finally broke out above that 360 level of resistance, we should see some higher prices.
IWM Small Caps
Small caps still having trouble breaking this 160, just a matter of time before it does.
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If you have a friend that can benefit from what you have learned from Trading Experts, shoot me there contact info and we will see if we can help!
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Sector Rotation
Key points
- Best suited in a taxable account
- We are willing to hold positions against us as overall sectors and markets are much less volatile than individual names.
- We are buying or adding (dollar cost averaging) when there are actionable set ups.
- We are selling for either profit or getting out for break even, if better opportunities arise elsewhere in other sectors.
- If you have more than $50k, we can set this model up for you!
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Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
VGT Tech
New highs tend to get met with new highs, set a 220 stop and let it work.
VDE Energy
The Energy sector has been one of the worst sectors this year however it might just be ready to break this down trend and start a run back to those prior highs, it could just as easily flush those lows before starting its leg higher.
VIS Industrial
150 stop and let it work its way higher.
VOX Telecom
Telecom like energy has been lagging the rest of the sectors however going into 2020, those 2 laggards might been the best deal we will find among the major sectors.
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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
VAW Materials
Materials finally breaking out from the 130 level that we have waited a half year to come to fruition.
VCR Consumer Discretionary
We can see this wedge forming that might need some more time before its really ready.
VFH Financials
Bank names finally getting some love in these streets, set a 72 stop and let it work its way higher.
VNQ REIT
Like the utilities, REIT's are starting to lose some steam after the monster run they went on this year, from the worst sector of 2018 to one of the best in 2019.
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Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
VDC Consumer Staples
Staples seem to be following suit with what VPU is currently doing (breaking down), would not be all that surprised to see this sector roll over after the crazy 2019 run it has been on.
VHT Healthcare
This VHT is finally trying to poke its head out from under this 178, and after it does that, it will be a lay up move back to the retest.
IBB Bio Tech
IBB has been on an absolute tear, hard to buy up here however if your holding, you just have to hang on!
VPU Utilities
VPU is breaking down, showing us that indeed sectors can do things other than run up to new highs day after day.
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The New Big Picture Set Up
ATVI
This ATVI has spent over a year basing under this 57, and its started to get more clearly defined, this will be a slow trade, I repeat this will be a slow grind back to highs. With earnings out of the way, there is no major catalyst to gap the stock up or down until next quarter. Hence the slow trade, if you can buy light, set a proper stop and let this stock do the work without trying to micro manage it, we should be able to sell this stock $20 higher down the road.
Target $85
Entry $57
Stop $52
