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Financial Planning
Take any hundred people at the start of their working careers and follow them for 40 years until they reach retirement age, and here's what you'll find, according to the Social Security Administration:
1 will be wealthy, 4 will be financially secure, 5 will continue to work because they need to, 36 will have already died, and 54 will be broke living off Social Security and help from family. 5% are successful while 95% are unsuccessful. Care to guess which group had financial planning?
Clients pay thousands of dollars a year to have a financial plan run for them at my investment bank, we include this benefit to you for no cost. If you would like us to put a plan together for you and your family so you can get closer to being in the 5%, shoot me a message on GroupMe saying "planning" and we will show you the simple steps to get you to your first your first million.
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Broad Market Outlook
New all time highs! Or is it new all time highs?
Who would have guessed, when a few months ago most were talking recession. We have seen some crazy earning reactions, with more being good then bad. The major markets hitting new highs and no resistance in sight, most have no clue when it will top out. The crowd will spend months wishing for new highs, than once we get it, they spend the rest of the time worrying when it will top out and crash and burn by dropping a few percent.
We are getting out of the choppy waters and trading should start to flow a bit better, this is a time where you really want to be able to squeeze as much juice out of your winners as possible. Try to avoid selling winners just to book profit and have a reason why you sold after the fact.
There were guys buying AMD at 29 and selling it at 30 to book profits, then wanting to buy it back at 34, if you grab great stock try your best to hold on and get paid for the smart buy.
Right now sector wise, REIT's, Utilities and Consumer Staples, seem like they are on their last legs, while Telecom, Financials and Industrial's are trying to break out of major bases, the one big laggard has been Energy and there still could be some downside in store in the short term, however if you really have some patience there are some deals in that space if you can give it time to turn around.
Let's get back into the groove of locking in those 5,10,15,20,25%+ chops! We have this huge box of new Comma Day shirt's that we are just itching to send out!
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Next Trading Experts Meet Ups!
November 16th Boston
November 26th Denver
January 9th Vermont
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Itchy IRA Fingers
The rush to pull from the IRA......
This week, I was working with a prospect that was referred to me, she was looking to buy a home and wanted to use her IRA that her parents set up for her as the down payment.
Looking over her statement, I noticed that she was up over 1000% on her investment, dug a little deeper and her parents bought her 100 shares of Apple and Disney almost 20 years ago! Go parents!
The parents mere $5,000 investment many years ago, was worth over $50,000 today tax deferred, on top of that, she was earning about $500 a year in dividends, about 10% of the original investment each and every year!
Now she only needed $30k for her down payment, and both her and her lender were itching to use this money. I on the other hand, was heart broken that they wanted to cut this gift in half. When there was an easy and better solution right in front of her.
Her 401k......
She had saved up $70k during her working career in her 401k and her 401k had a loan option where she could pull out up to 50% of her 401k without creating a taxable event, keeping the money invested and slowly paying herself back.
Vs selling those gifts of a stock position, and paying taxes plus a 10% penalty on the money.
The smart play was the 401k loan, the dumb play was cashing out the IRA, one was a slam dunk and the other was a punch in the ribs.
Before you look to get those itchy fingers on your IRA, talk to an financial adviser before you end of having a chat with someone from the IRS!
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Macro Rotation Outlook
Nasdaq
8,000 stop and let it work higher!
SPY
300 stop and let it work higher!
Dow Jones
Dow is lagging behind the S+P and Nasdaq, when you look under the hood of this sector some of the names look a bit extended and tired recently.
MDY Mid Cap Stocks
Mid caps finally poking its head above that 360 area!
IWM Small Caps
12th times a charm for this 160?
10 Year Treasury Note Yielding 1.73%
Sounding like a broken record however debt is cheap these days.
10 Year Treasury 1.73%
30 Year Treasury 2.19%
OIL
Oil still playing in this wide range!
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If you have a friend that can benefit from what you have learned from Trading Experts, shoot me there contact info and we will see if we can help!
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Sector Rotation
Key points
- Best suited in a taxable account
- We are willing to hold positions against us as overall sectors and markets are much less volatile than individual names.
- We are buying or adding (dollar cost averaging) when there are actionable set ups.
- We are selling for either profit or getting out for break even if better opportunities arise elsewhere in other sectors.
- If you have more than $50k, we can set this model up for you
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Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
VGT Tech
New highs, tend to get met with new highs, up those stops and let them run!
VDE Energy
Energy has been the weakest sector of the bunch, just like REITs were at the beginning of the year starting at new 52 week lows and ending at new 52 week highs, with all the other sectors near highs, this is a sector that could yield some upside if you are looking months and months down the road, short term, we could easily see a flush of support.
VIS Industrial
Industrial's are running into the major resistance level for the 3rd time, the real out is 10+ points lower however you could add light if you already have some.
VOX Telecom
This base has been forming for almost 2 years and the measure move of this pattern puts it right back at the prior highs above $100, this is a very slow sector, so you need to be patient not perfect with your entry.
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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
VAW Materials
Materials are working there way back to breaking this 130 area, with a clear line of resistance and solid higher lows, its only a matter of time before it does.
VCR Consumer Discretionary
We can see this wedge forming in the discretionary's.
VFH Financials
Financials finally broke that level of resistance that has been holding them down for almost 2 years! The next real magnet will be the prior highs, long way from support so we should expect a straight ride back to highs.
VNQ REIT
The REIT sector has been on a monster run with low interest rates this year, however we can see the flags getting tighter and tighter which usually means the start of the end of an overall run, time to tighten up those stops.
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Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
VDC Consumer Staples
The Consumer Staples are flagging near highs, which have came a long way this year, if they were to shake some weak hands and pull back a bit, would be much healthier for a breakout down the road, if we continue to inch back to highs, would not expect a hard break.
VHT Healthcare
Healthcare has gone on a straight up run off lows back into resistance, with this doji at highs, they might need to step off the gas pedal and consolidate before taking out this area to retest prior highs.
IBB Bio Tech
Bio's are cooking, drop a 106 stop in and let it run!
VPU Utilities
This VPU is flagging at highs, if the market continues to hit new highs, I would suspect this sector to start rolling over and continue to test recent support instead of recent resistance.
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The New Big Picture Set Up
GWW
You might remember when we were hawking the 280 buy and unfortunately missed the base break up off support that worked out great. Now we are being given another chance to grab this 320 breakout to start that move back to the prior highs of 370! Remember this move back to highs can take months, not weeks, buy light and be patient.
Target $370
Entry $320
Stop $310
