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Broad Market Outlook
All that time we spent worrying about a trade deal and it ended with a fizzle, we ordered a Rum and Coke at the bar and got a Shirley Temple for $29, plus tip.
Frankly, if you went out and asked 100 people, I would be shocked if even 5 knew there was a partial deal done at all. As we saw in the late day pull back on Friday, the market cared for a matter of hours that we spent almost the entire year worrying about.
It's really hard to expect much upside coming into Monday. Most thought that a trade deal was a guarantee "new 52 week high" outcome however like usual, the market will serve us the drink no one wants.
Hopefully with this Shirley Temple deal behind us, we can move back to trading that is focused on finding the best charts and less worrying about a tweet!
From Ben G
Macro Rotation Outlook
We can see the 274 resistance level in the large caps however we can also clearly see higher lows forming, eventually one of these will have to break.
SPY 300 is still acting as resistance however we continue to get higher lows, so eventually one of those will have to break.
8,000 is the new resistance level and once we clear that, expect to start seeing the Nasdaq 10,000 articles.
MDY Mid Cap Stocks
We can see how 360 has been the key level of resistance in the mid caps recently.
IWM Small Caps
We can see how many times IWM tried to break this 160! No 3rd times a charm here!
BND Bond Market
Lower highs in the Bond Market!
10 Year Treasury Note Yielding 1.%
Congrats to Mr Moon for the refin and Val for locking in his rate before the 10 year popped a bit!
10 Year Treasury 1.75%
30 Year Treasury 2.19%
From highs to lows quick, holding that prior pivot low to the penny, still seems more downside is in store.
China trading in the tightest range among the international major players.
Europe just trading in a tight range.
VWO Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets like India, hanging in this range.
India still in this few dollar range.
Forming some higher lows as it trys to head back to the recent resistance level.
If you have a friend that can benefit from what you have learned from Trading Experts, shoot me there contact info and we will see if we can help!
- Best suited in a taxable account
- We are willing to hold positions against us as overall sectors and markets are much less volatile than individual names.
- We are buying or adding (dollar cost averaging) when there are actionable set ups.
- We are selling for either profit or getting out for break even if better opportunities arise elsewhere in other sectors.
- If you have more than $50k, we can set this model up for you
Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
Retesting a prior pivot high, has not really set up long enough to form a real level of resistance, maybe we could see a new high however I would not expect fire works.
Picked some up off support, however this overall pattern, screams a break down of lows at some point, if we can a weak bounce (lower high) we should expect that break down sooner than later. If we can get a new higher higher, than maybe the past in behind us in this sector as its been in the woodshed all year.
Macro level of resistance forming at this 150 level.
This 88 has acted as a resistance level forming this base for almost a year now, eventually when it can break out and clear 88, we should see the overall base changing into an overall up trend. The overall downtrend was almost 2 years and the overall base has been almost a year, so when the uptrend starts, it will be a slow longer term one.
Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
VAW is now in a 10 point range between 120 to 130, eventually the 130 level will be a spot to buy on the break.
VCR Consumer Discretionary
182.50 would be the spot to add with the trend.
Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
VDC Consumer Staples
Seems like in time we will see a shakeout down through 162.
Sub Sector Rotation
IBB Bio Tech
The New Big Picture Set Up
This PPG has been setting up for almost half a decade under this 118/120 level, now its still a bit wide as the real out is vs 112. If it can settle out and pull back under this 120, we should have a solid chance to grab some stock for this major breakout when it wants to go!
Trading Experts Vegas Meet Up
Let me start off by saying, one Cedric is the man, and two if you are ever in Vegas @DreamRacing is a must. It is an expensive day however its worth every penny, this is up there next to heli skiing, an epic day you wont forget!
We preach that learning from a professional speeds up the learning curve, which is true however we are on the other side of the conversation, being the student is very humbling and really shows how much you can improve with the proper guidance. Learning from Cedric just in those laps around the track from my first to last lap was a 25% improvement in time, lets forget about spinning off the track lol. Having him in the passenger seat saying full throttle, brake hard, coast, full throttle, punch it! Was a wild experience that had me shopping for spec racing Ferrari's all night.
Trading Experts Brooklyn Meet Up
Such a great time last night getting to catch up with all the Alpha's! We had the whole team out, Braden our app developer made an appearance, Dennis who has been helping us from a podcasting stand point came through, Sam and his editor were on deck as well, who helped us film our new intro so we can continue to put out more videos. Higgins smuggled in a bottle of Henny along with dozens of Power Caps that we were handing out like hot cakes! Got to hear more about Valentino's new coaching business, and Phil Niemans wild nights (that he never invites us too) while he parties with Paris Hilton. Sam P and Kevin made the long haul from south jersey to have a few beers with the crew. Yeno (Big Papi) who has been helping the Alphas get jobs stopped by as well, had some accounting experts Yousef and Alejandro stop by as well! Brooklyn native Yosnel showed Andy, Yeno and myself around into the wee hours of the night!
We really appreciate everyone who made it out and it was amazing to see the progression from the last big meet up back in November at Beauty in Essex where most of the conversation revolved around future business ideas, fast forward 7 months later, pretty much everyone in the picture above is running some type of business that they started, from soccer coaching to sleeping pills to podcasting to accounting to video editing, selling on amazon and real estate!
Trading Experts NYC Meet Up
Such a great time and thanks to all the Alpha's that made it out to this weekends meet up in NYC! Shake and myself will be planning another NYC meet up next month!
Trading Experts Miami/Bimini Bahamas
All in all, the trip was a great success and having a smaller group it was much easier to move around, explore and share real experiences. As much fun as the huge group trips are, its hard to get those 1 on 1 connections with some much going on. I have not even began to think of the next trip however it will most likely be some time in the end of July. If you are interested in coming, let me know, as I would like to keep it like this trip of half a dozen members.
The deal is done, now what?