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Financial Planning
Take any hundred people at the start of their working careers and follow them for 40 years until they reach retirement age, and here's what you'll find, according to the Social Security Administration:
1 will be wealthy, 4 will be financially secure, 5 will continue to work because they need to, 36 will have already died, and 54 will be broke living off Social Security and help from family. 5% are successful while 95% are unsuccessful. Care to guess which group had financial planning?
Clients pay thousands of dollars a year to have a financial plan run for them at my investment bank, we include this benefit to you for no cost. If you would like us to put a plan together for you and your family so you can get closer to being in the 5%, shoot me a message on GroupMe saying "planning" and we will show you the simple steps to get you to your first your first million.
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Broad Market Outlook
I learned something very interesting about the recruiting market this weekend and let's ask ourselves why have they been getting smoked recently? Peep two of the biggest players in the game below!
Robert Half (RHI) had a great 2018 and recently has been taken to the wood shed as its about to break $52 to the downside any one of these days! Now lets look at Korn Kerry (KFY) another big player in the space below.
Similar chart, great 2018 and since its been a shit show!
Who is entering this space that is about to eat these two players lunch?
UBER, yes the ride sharing, fast food delivering company will be jumping into the recruiting space and when you really think about it, its fucking genius!
Now they will not be recruiting for doctors or lawyers or any white collar jobs. They set there sites on the manual labor and part time workers will be their bread and butter such as factor workers. Think about it, they have millions of part time workers already, they have all there information, they know where they live, where they drive, how much they drive and how much they make. All at there finger tips, so when a factory in NJ is short staffed, or an Amazon warehouse needs more workers for a few weeks during the holidays. UBER will have a pipeline of ready workers to fulfill that need at the snap of a finger.
Anyone can lie on a resume, hard to lie about driving 80 to 100 hours a week on UBER's app.
Now most on the street are unaware of this, as we can tell from the share price and most wont know about this until 2020.
Now UBER is dead in the water at the moment, as most do not know that UBER is about to enter the recruiting space and most will not hear about it until 2020. AKA there is still plenty of downside on the table for UBER, just think of how smoked SNAP got for a second. It went from $30 to $5 before finally turning around and are still far from out of the woodshed.
Now we are traders, we care about the chart, however some times its good to know about the 3rd and 4th move up the companies sleeve before the 1st move starts. Could UBER turn it around, of course however this could easily take years, not days or weeks.
I am not saying go bet the farm on UBER, however for a name that hasn't been on our radar since that failed $45 breakout, might be worth a second glance every week or so!
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Macro Rotation Outlook
Dow Jones
Major markets take many more attempts at a major level than an individual stock, please remember that!
SPY
Remember 3rd times a charm in the major market means nada, wake me up when we get to 12th times a charm, better yet 15th times!
Nasdaq
The psychological 8,000 level continues to hold up, we see this all the time like DOW 10k and 20k, its just a made up whole number that people create as resistance, after we break this in time the next real battle will be Nasdaq 10k!
MDY Mid Cap Stocks
Mid caps still playing in this solid range with resistance being 360.
IWM Small Caps
One, two, three, four, five, six times so far 160 has acted as resistance, please make note of this, so when the SPY retests a prior high you can remember how long this major markets take before breaking out.
10 Year Treasury Note Yielding 1.%
Still seeing lower pivot highs, so we should be back into refin time area soon.
10 Year Treasury 1.75%
30 Year Treasury 2.24%
OIL
We can see how Oil is holding that level of support to the penny, however a few more attempts at it and we should see a break lower.
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If you have a friend that can benefit from what you have learned from Trading Experts, shoot me there contact info and we will see if we can help!
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Sector Rotation
Key points
- Best suited in a taxable account
- We are willing to hold positions against us as overall sectors and markets are much less volatile than individual names.
- We are buying or adding (dollar cost averaging) when there are actionable set ups.
- We are selling for either profit or getting out for break even if better opportunities arise elsewhere in other sectors.
- If you have more than $50k, we can set this model up for you
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Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
VGT Tech
We can see people taking profits into the retest of that prior high.
VDE Energy
Baby bounce, we should expect to see a breakdown to new 52 week lows soon in this space. After that though, that could be what we need to change the overall down trend, max pessimism!
VIS Industrial
148/150 has been an area of macro resistance, for now the move still seems to be to sell into it. Now watch that they break out and never look back!
VOX Telecom
This $90 eventually will be a sick base break, if you zoom out more you will see what I am talking about!
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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
VAW Materials
$10 range in this VAW, right dead smack, if your in, hold, if your not in, a pass.
VCR Consumer Discretionary
3rd times a charm in a major sector usually doesn't mean much as we have seen IWM hold its level almost a dozen times, will still look to be a seller of resistance in this sector.
VFH Financials
We can see this clear range, 66 to 72, so far we have been paid to buy up off support and sell into resistance, for now we are still holding out.
VNQ REIT
$94 DCA working nice so far! $92 Stop if your still in from a while ago.
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Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
VDC Consumer Staples
152 Stop
VHT Healthcare
As we have noticed buying up off support and selling into resistance of this range, has been the move, however once the range bound trade becomes that obvious, usually means the near end of the obvious trade.
VPU Utilities
140 Stop
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Sub Sector Rotation
IBB Bio Tech
Next spot to keep an eye on would be this 106 level.
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The New Big Picture Set Up
EXPD
We tried this $78 breakout back in April and it didn't have the legs to really push higher, since than it has continued to flag nicely in a solid box, we could grab a feeler above 76 to be ready to buy 78 when the time comes!
Target $100
Entry $78
Feeler $76
Stop $68
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Trading Experts Vegas Meet Up
Let me start off by saying, one Cedric is the man, and two if you are ever in Vegas @DreamRacing is a must. It is an expensive day however its worth every penny, this is up there next to heli skiing, an epic day you wont forget!
We preach that learning from a professional speeds up the learning curve, which is true however we are on the other side of the conversation, being the student is very humbling and really shows how much you can improve with the proper guidance. Learning from Cedric just in those laps around the track from my first to last lap was a 25% improvement in time, lets forget about spinning off the track lol. Having him in the passenger seat saying full throttle, brake hard, coast, full throttle, punch it! Was a wild experience that had me shopping for spec racing Ferrari's all night.
Trading Experts Brooklyn Meet Up
We really appreciate everyone who made it out and it was amazing to see the progression from the last big meet up back in November at Beauty in Essex where most of the conversation revolved around future business ideas, fast forward 7 months later, pretty much everyone in the picture above is running some type of business that they started, from soccer coaching to sleeping pills to podcasting to accounting to video editing, selling on amazon and real estate!
Trading Experts NYC Meet Up
Such a great time and thanks to all the Alpha's that made it out to this weekends meet up in NYC! Shake and myself will be planning another NYC meet up next month!
Trading Experts Miami/Bimini Bahamas
All in all, the trip was a great success and having a smaller group it was much easier to move around, explore and share real experiences. As much fun as the huge group trips are, its hard to get those 1 on 1 connections with some much going on. I have not even began to think of the next trip however it will most likely be some time in the end of July. If you are interested in coming, let me know, as I would like to keep it like this trip of half a dozen members.
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