The Big Picture

 
The Big Picture starts with the Broad Market Outlook, than we dive into Sector Rotation in the order of the sectors most extended (up stops / take profits) to the sectors setting up (look for entries) to the most out of play (avoid for now), than we get into the new Big Picture Idea of the week as well as an update to each prior Big Picture Idea that are setting up. To view a bigger version of each chart just click on the image.
 
Broad Market Outlook
 
The global rally continues, where virtually everything has been trading higher except the bit coin mafia. Remember that markets move as a unit, when you have US, European, Emerging, and even Japan trading higher in tandem that is a good fucking sign.
Chart wise and even writing this it sounds euphoric however from talking with market participants (professional and none) there are still soo many people who are watching from the side lines saying "the market is too high, I am waiting for a pull back".
In the past week most of all of the non professionals I have spoke with are still wrapped  up in the coin bubble. My jewelry asked about them, only to sheepishly admit he picked up some. A good buddy of mine fessed up with his tail between his legs that he is getting light up in them. As well as the suicide hot lines posted on all major social networking sites as people are losing there life's saving. Along with the ponzi schemes getting exposed as the coin's tank. Until those people start to brag about there gains from stocks, or start to tell us what to buy we should be ok. 
That does not mean just blindly buying the market or your favorite stock, we are in a breakout market, and we will continue to do what has been paying us. Finding major weekly levels and buying them as they break.
SPY 300+ 12 Month Price Target 
The magnet to SPY 3,000 continues, as we post in the chat earlier this week with virtually every major bank touting the SPY 3,000 and an optimistic outlook for the year ahead, we should be seeing it soon. 
Remember we trade stocks not the SPY, as the market continues its run, this is the time to clean up, take your trades and don't let the markets high keep you out of an A+ set up.
Just when everyone is in the rug gets pulled and the Wall of Worry talk will quickly turn to the Slope of Hope talk, as you have seen in other stocks and sectors. There are still plenty of people on the side lines missing this rally, its when they get in that the run is over.
 
Nasdaq 8400+ 12 Month Target
The Nasdaq is still flirting with this upper range any move above 6850 we should see higher prices, however take note that this is the 3rd week up on a major move so a little consolation never hurt no body.
 
MDY Mid Cap Stocks 400+ 12 Month Target
Mid Cap stocks punching up through new highs, anything vs $340 is fair game.
 
IWM Small Caps 200+ 12 Month Target
Small caps showing just a little bit of indecision up here, anything vs $152 is fair game.
VGK Europe ETF  $82+ 12 Month Target
Europe has finally started to show its face and has been cooking lately, it might look tough to be adding after the run its been on, we should see a retest of the 2008 highs down the road. If you think US markets are extended VGK is yelling out pick me.
VWO Emerging Markets +$58 12 Month Target
The Emerging Markets and Europe were left for dead after 2008 and are finally started to join the party, if you have any emerging market etf's or mutual funds in your 401k this past year they were your best performers and you might want to take some profits, dont. This is the time to be patient and up your (mental stops). 
EWJ Japan +$85 12 Month Target
Japan has been dead money for almost 20 years, however the chart is showing its hand at $66. Last time our market was getting near a similar major level you can see what followed.
 
 
Sector Rotation
VCR Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary's have been on a major run, for now anything vs $164 we should see higher prices, however this is where you want to be upping stops, not putting risk on after the run it has been on.
VIS Industrial Sector
VIS starting to show its hand that its getting a little tired, stop vs $148 keep your profits and avoid the pull back.
VHT Healthcare Sector 
Healthcare still ready to rock, we had a great entry in this sector three weeks ago, stops are moved up vs $162.
 
 VGT Tech Sector
Tech and Healthcare should pick up the steam as money starts to rotate out of Consumer Discretionary's and Industrial's, stop upped vs $172 if you want to keep it tight.
VFH Financial Sector 
We have seen this time and time again, as the sector or name trades higher, it becomes more popular and the flags get smaller and smaller however the moves tend to get less feasty when your buying the 3rd, 4th or 5th, major flag. We should see higher prices however just take note that tight stops are essential here.
 VDE Energy Sector
Energy names have been on a tear the last month however these vertical moves can only last so long, would like to see VDE hold above $100. For now Energy will need some time so be patient, not a time to rush back into them after the run its been on.
VOX Telcom
Telcom is setting up near a major inflection point as you can see $92 has been a level for quite some time, as well as the overall lower lowers and lower highs in this sector. Most recently we saw the hardest sell off (capitulation) think that VZ $44 buy back before the monster run it went on. This one will be a little trickier since the sector in general is a lower beta more value/income play. This is a sector where your paid to buy into pain not necessarily buying the breakout. For now the major players T $39 and $41 major resistance, $35-$33 are support areas. VZ $53-$54 major resistance, $43-$45 major support. TMUS pays no dividend so if the sector does decide to breakout TMUS should have the meatiest move of them all through $68.
VDC Consumer Staples
Great close for the consumer staples sector this week that we have been focusing on, WMT had a great move and if you are still in, stop vs $100 and let it keep grinding toward $110, KO started to go as well as this etf, for VDC stop vs $144 and let it work.
 
VPU Utility Sector
Utilities continue to sell off which we have mentions happens as markets rally, since they are looked at as a risk off sector, will be keeping an eye on $112 as its major inflection point, for now the lower this sector goes, the better it is for us.
VNQ REIT Sector
REIT's have not been able to catch a bid as this wedge pattern continues to play out, will look to see if $77 can act as support in this sector.
 
The New Big Picture Set Up
  WDAY $200+ 12 Month Price Target
WDAY is setting up for a 3rd attempt at $116 that has been setting up since 2014, so far it has show us that it wants to hold the line above $100 which is a great sign. For now that is the real out, however were not in the game of risking $16 points on an entry in a $100 stock that's bad lands. For now to trade it right we will have to give it time to set up since this name is a dirty one, even keeping it tight vs the prior lows is around $8 risk.
Entry $116.01
Stop $107.89
Big Picture Target $200+
Updated Big Picture Set Up's
  CYOU $60+ 12 Month Price Target
CYOU was a name we were watching through $41 however the buyers just were not ready to break that level in it just yet. Currently we have been seeing this $37 area become somewhat of a battle ground and getting extremely tight. The real out is vs $35 and a tighter out is around $1 risk vs $36. This is a very thin name that has been in this range for almost a year, up through $37 can give us a low risk entry for higher prices if the buyers are ready.
CYOU triggered late Friday as most of the chat was in on the break that had a quick pop into its next resistance area. We can see how $36 has been holding so if we are wrong that would be the area to look to get out, could give it to the real out however in this thin name rather keep it tight for now.
Triggered $37.01
Stop $35.89
Big Picture Target $60+
  KO $60+ 12 Month Price Target
KO has been flagging for quite some time around this $46.50/$47 area with consumer staples like KO flagging near highs other than WMT $100, this is probably one of the best places to be in this space. KO took out its major $44 level that was its high for 20 god damn years. Big picture wise through this area vs $44 is showing us it is risk worth putting on. Remember it took this name 20 god damn years to get back to this price, this name will require zen like patience, put the risk on, set your stop and let it work.
KO triggered this week as consumer staples started to break out, upping the stop by $1 to $45.89, once we can get above $47.50 we are at new all time highs so that is the next line in the sand to keep an eye on.
Triggered $46.51
Stop $45.89
Big Picture Target $60+
  ALNY $280+ 12 Month Price Target
 ALNY has been setting up for this $140 level for quite some time now, which looks somewhat similar to ENTA a prior Big Picture Idea that's up 15% in two weeks. Now will it trade exactly like ENTA? Probably not, however chart wise we know $140 is the level that we need to be in for. For now we want to keep an eye on $120 support, to see if it can hold or if it needs to shake the tree first (what ENTA had to do).
ENTA took around 2 months near highs before going, ALNY is around 8 weeks into a very similar patter.
ALNY looking as if it wants to retest this $120 level of support, will see how it reacts, $140 still the big picture entry.
Entry 140.01
Stop $119.89
Big Picture Target $280+
  PFE $50+ 12 Month Price Target
PFE is more in the value camp in the healthcare sector than the fast bio's were use to, however we are starting to see some rotation to these value names near major level like INTC that was good for a 26% move in a month through $38. PFE is setting up around this $37.50 area it recently made an attempt for it however didnt have the juice. For now will be keeping an eye as it pulls in vs $35. Given its a slow name and each penny counts. I will be looking to buy $37 vs $35.
PFE triggered this week however still showing us $37.40 is the key level that needs to break, took a minor paper cut in it for a few cent loss. Will buy back through $37.40
 
Entry $37.41
Stop $35.89
Big Picture Target $50+ 
 
 The Big Picture WVE $80+ 12 Month Price Target
WVE is a recent new issue biotech, as we have seen this name has been a beast this past month and showing its hand that $40 is still the major level (2nd time retesting it) where we can expect the sellers who were trapped from the first go around to take stock off for as close to break even as possible.
 
These new issues are sneaky and so are the bios. How tough was the ENTA (bio) buy was or even ROKU on Friday how tough it would have been to buy $52 instead of up through $48.50.
 
Ideally we would like to see it pull into the low $30s than turn back up through $40 however Santa doesn't always bring us our favorite setups. For now we will have to keep an eye on $40 and be ready to click the button if it wants to go sooner.
WVE is going to be zero fun buying $40 on $8 risk however its the hardest buys that tend to yield the best rewards.
 
Entry $40.01
Stop $31.89
Big Picture Target $80+ 
The Big Picture ENTA $84+ 12 Month Price Target
ENTA  is a biotech and somewhat of a newer issue that has only been trading for around 4 years. The later part makes it even more appealing, this chart reminds me of NBIX $56, ONCE $66 and KITE $95. All of those charts from the Big Picture  levels were good for $20+, $30+ and $50+respectively. ENTA is still just chopping around and can easily still shakeout its current short term support around $45. For now we just have to keep alerts and our eyes on that $52.
Hold your winners, stop upped to $61 if you are still in.

 Triggered $52.01
Stop $60.89
Big Picture Target $84+ 
 
The Big Picture TIF $132+ 12 Month Price Target
 
This $97 level in TIF has been resistance for over 16 months now, recently this name has been more emotional than your ex when she finds out that you are dating someone new. $10+/- weekly swings are showing a clear sign that the emotions are high in this one. Just when all the weak hands puke $96ish is when we want to start eyeing it much closer. 
 
TIF back to prior highs of $110 should see some sellers come in this area as a pull back seems in the cards. We should in time get an entry through $110 for a move to new all time highs.
 
Triggered $96.01
Stop $103.89
Big Picture Target $132+ 
The Big Picture SHAK $70+ 12 Month Price Target
 
A year or two ago we could never bring up a base like this because its what? Bottom right? Which is correct, however there are always exceptions to the rule and for SHAK we are willing to make such an exception. Why an exception? There are 3 main ones.
 
-Basing for 2 years
-Defined Big Picture Entry
-Defined Big Picture Out
 
Looking at this chart its a screaming bear flag and if $30 wants to break, I will be the first one to buy $20 puts however those $30 buyers flexed there muscle and held that line in the sand which is no surprise that it was able to get right back up to this level and start to flag. In the last year $40 has been attempted 4 times and failed, 5th time is a charm? Time will tell. 
 
There is plenty of overhead resistance so the first line in the sand we will want to see a quick move to $45, than the next area will be $50, than pretty much ever $5 increment on the way up. At the end of the day this is still just a burger company and as we are starting to see from CMG that wild growth story is starting to stall and it seems the market is started to realize that a place that makes $8 tacos probably isn't in the same realm of companies like Amazon and Google. That's why the target is much more swallow able. For now we will let the chart doing the talking.
 
Still quiet over in SHAK as it slowly pulls in, showing a cute $44 buy however nothing A+, patience.

Triggered $40.01
Stop $39.89
Big Picture Target $70+ 
 
The Big Picture ESPR $100+ 12 Month Price Target
ESPR has been a name we have been trading all year from Shakes first call through $36, when it wants to go you better strap on your fucking seat belts because it goes with no mercy ($30 to $50 in 2 weeks) however if you want the upside you have to expect the downside as well. Cant have your cake and eat it too. Recently this week we had a nice swing in it from $50 to $54 only to watch it continue to rage.
 
Going back to 2015 we can see this $57ish area has been a level for the stock, $56.73 $57.38, $56.55, $57.40, and $57.67 have all be the highest this name has been able to get since 2015. 
 
A break through $58 on strong volume could see this name back to the $100-$110 area within a year. Now this is a wide name, currently $42 is the real out, and given how dirty its been its really vs $40. However we don't want to give a name $17 of room. So for now its an "On The Radar Big Picture" idea because we will need a tighter stop than $17 lower.
 

It tends to be the hard ones that yield the $20 moves, stop upped vs $70

 
Triggered $58.01
Stop $69.89
Big Picture Target $100+
 
The Big Picture PCTY $70+ 12 Month Price Target 
 
PCTY is a somewhat new issue (pep how it traded when it first came out, same can be said for a majority of new issues) They need time to set up, and with thousands of stocks out there we can let them set up for years until there ripe for our picking. 
 
 
PCTY finally started to show its ready, was not an easy one however now that its holding above $49 a good sign, upping the stop by $1 vs $48.
Triggered $49.01
Stop $47.89
Big Picture Target $70+
 
The Big Picture LJPC  $50+ 12 Month Price Target
At this point most of us are at odds with LJPC trying to cat this move through $36 and has been wearing the gang out as a whole, which reminds me of COUP which also wore us all out until there was only one member left, Inside George whom caught the easy move as we all sat there with our dicks in our hands, case in point below.
 
 
As we can see in COUP, we tried $31, $3 pull in, we try it again $2 pull in, we try it again $1.50 pull in, ahh fuck it, pulls in a $1 and goes and Inside George catches the the 15% move with ease.
LJPC showing us a classic double bottom vs $28, $33 is the next level to keep an eye on with the real level being $36.
Entry $36.01
Stop $27.89
Big Picture Target $50+

 

I've never met a confident gambler, nor have I ever met a profitable one either



 

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