________________________________
Financial Planning
Take any hundred people at the start of their working careers and follow them for 40 years until they reach retirement age, and here's what you'll find, according to the Social Security Administration:
1 will be wealthy, 4 will be financially secure, 5 will continue to work because they need to, 36 will have already died, and 54 will be broke living off Social Security and help from family. 5% are successful while 95% are unsuccessful. Care to guess which group had financial planning?
Clients pay thousands of dollars a year to have a financial plan run for them at my investment bank, we include this benefit to you for no cost. If you would like us to put a plan together for you and your family so you can get closer to being in the 5%, shoot me a message on GroupMe saying "planning" and we will show you the simple steps to get you to your first your first million.
________________________________
Broad Market Outlook
2 weeks ago we retested highs and we did a great job, tightening up as a pull back was in the cards. Which is exactly what we are getting, a slow orderly pull back, I still expect to see 270 in the SPY short term as well as a retest of the 2019 lows at some point in the next 12 months.
We 2 sectors flagging at highs, REIT's and Utilities, an obvious red flag that there is some fear in the market.
This past week we've had the tweets and the headlines that gets most on edge and ready to complain, however when the markets rip higher on headlines, we are all gods, yet when the market doesn't give us the Christmas gift we want, most want to pout and stomp their feet.
The market will always have news, news we like, news we hate, and there is nothing we can do about it, complaining about it will not put the dollars back into your pocket.
What will put more dollars into your account, is accepting that there are things that we cannot control and there are things that we can control. Having patience, you can control, your work ethic, you can control, the stocks you do or don't buy, you can control.
Focus more on what you can control and less of what you cannot.
From Ben G
________________________________
Macro Rotation Outlook
Dow Jones
As we said last week, after the retest we should expect to see a pull back, exactly what we are getting.
SPY
As we said last week, after the retest we should expect to see a pull back, exactly what we are getting.
Nasdaq
As we said last week, after the retest we should expect to see a pull back, exactly what we are getting.
MDY Mid Cap Stocks
3rd times a charm was no dice, took some gains trading the range.
IWM Small Caps
4th times a charm was no dice for the small caps, locked in some gains trading the range.
BND Bond Market
Remember bonds prices are inverse to the overall yield.
10 Year Treasury Note Yielding 1.68%
We can see how the market priced in the rate cut as it run up off lows prior to the cut.
10 Year Treasury 1.68%
30 Year Treasury 2.13%
OIL
Oil faded that news quick, we did a great job milked this new for all it was worth.
________________________________
GXC China
Expect to see new lows in China after the recent action.
VGK Europe
After a failed attempt at $55, lower prices seem in store in the short term.
VWO Emerging Markets
We should not be surprised if we see new lows in the emerging markets.
INDA India
$34 and $36 still setting up, needs some time!
RSX Russia
4th times a charm (zoom out more) and Russia still cannot break this $24 level.
________________________________
If you have a friend that can benefit from what you have learned from Trading Experts, shoot me there contact info and we will see if we can help!
______________________________
Sector Rotation
Key points
- Best suited in a taxable account
- We are willing to hold positions against us as overall sectors and markets are much less volatile than individual names.
- We are buying or adding (dollar cost averaging) when there are actionable set ups.
- We are selling for either profit or getting out for break even if better opportunities arise elsewhere in other sectors.
- If you have more than $50k, we can set this model up for you
_________________________________
Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
VGT Tech
We can see how the steep uptrend recently started to break, we should expect to see some lower prices this week.
VDE Energy
We did a great job selling the news in Energy as it continues to pull back.
VIS Industrial
144 Stop
VOX Telecom
As telecom ran back into resistance, it was not ready to push out the base that has been forming for quite some time, free'd up some cash.
________________________________
Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
VAW Materials
3rd times a charm through $130 didn't work as we mentioned that sections and major markets take much more attempts at major levels than individual stocks.
VCR Consumer Discretionary
Retest failed and continues to pull back as we expected.
VFH Financials
Financials retested that prior pivot high and we took some profits, time to let it pull back and set back up.
VNQ REIT
REIT's and Utilities are both flagging near highs which is a red flag.
_________________________________
Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
VDC Consumer Staples
Little mickey mouse flag, tight stop vs that 154.
VHT Healthcare
Along with the Bio's, Healthcare has gotten beat up this week and ran back into support, however after the 5th time into support, smells like we should expect a move lower.
VPU Utilities
Utility sector continues to breakout, which should be a red flag.
________________________________
Sub Sector Rotation
IBB Bio Tech
The Bio's finally broke this $100 level of support, time to give this sector some space as it looks like it could retest the 2019 lows.
______________________________
The New Big Picture Set Up
PPG
This PPG has been setting up for almost 5 years now through the $120 and $122, in time we could expect a move into the $150 area in time.
Target $150
Entry $120
Stop $114
________________________________
Trading Experts Vegas Meet Up
Let me start off by saying, one Cedric is the man, and two if you are ever in Vegas @DreamRacing is a must. It is an expensive day however its worth every penny, this is up there next to heli skiing, an epic day you wont forget!
We preach that learning from a professional speeds up the learning curve, which is true however we are on the other side of the conversation, being the student is very humbling and really shows how much you can improve with the proper guidance. Learning from Cedric just in those laps around the track from my first to last lap was a 25% improvement in time, lets forget about spinning off the track lol. Having him in the passenger seat saying full throttle, brake hard, coast, full throttle, punch it! Was a wild experience that had me shopping for spec racing Ferrari's all night.
Trading Experts Brooklyn Meet Up
Such a great time last night getting to catch up with all the Alpha's! We had the whole team out, Braden our app developer made an appearance, Dennis who has been helping us from a podcasting stand point came through, Sam and his editor were on deck as well, who helped us film our new intro so we can continue to put out more videos. Higgins smuggled in a bottle of Henny along with dozens of Power Caps that we were handing out like hot cakes! Got to hear more about Valentino's new coaching business, and Phil Niemans wild nights (that he never invites us too) while he parties with Paris Hilton. Sam P and Kevin made the long haul from south jersey to have a few beers with the crew. Yeno (Big Papi) who has been helping the Alphas get jobs stopped by as well, had some accounting experts Yousef and Alejandro stop by as well! Brooklyn native Yosnel showed Andy, Yeno and myself around into the wee hours of the night!
We really appreciate everyone who made it out and it was amazing to see the progression from the last big meet up back in November at Beauty in Essex where most of the conversation revolved around future business ideas, fast forward 7 months later, pretty much everyone in the picture above is running some type of business that they started, from soccer coaching to sleeping pills to podcasting to accounting to video editing, selling on amazon and real estate!
Trading Experts NYC Meet Up
Such a great time and thanks to all the Alpha's that made it out to this weekends meet up in NYC! Shake and myself will be planning another NYC meet up next month!
Trading Experts Miami/Bimini Bahamas
All in all, the trip was a great success and having a smaller group it was much easier to move around, explore and share real experiences. As much fun as the huge group trips are, its hard to get those 1 on 1 connections with some much going on. I have not even began to think of the next trip however it will most likely be some time in the end of July. If you are interested in coming, let me know, as I would like to keep it like this trip of half a dozen members.
________________________________
яша