The Big Picture

by Ben G
    
   
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Financial Planning
Take any hundred people at the start of their working careers and follow them for 40 years until they reach retirement age, and here's what you'll find, according to the Social Security Administration:
1 will be wealthy, 4 will be financially secure, 5 will continue to work because they need to, 36 will have already died, and 54 will be broke living off Social Security and help from family. 5% are successful while 95% are unsuccessful. Care to guess which group had financial planning?
Clients pay thousands of dollars a year to have a financial plan run for them at my investment bank, we include this benefit to you for no cost. If you would like us to put a plan together for you and your family so you can get closer to being in the 5%, shoot me a message on GroupMe saying "planning" and we will show you the simple steps to get you to your first your first million.
   
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Broad Market Outlook
We are a mere 3% away from all time highs, however the overall mode in the market are as if we are in a great depression, even from a chart reading stand point as much as we aim to be opportunists, it is a very selective market. Now we are near one of the slowest times of the year (end of summer), in two weeks when all the rugrats are back in school and everyone is back from vacation, we will see the volume start to come back. This will be the end of year rush as before we know it, we will be seeing Christmas trees up and we will be wondering where the year went. 
At the end of each month, the mentors and myself review what goals we exceeded, where we failed and how we can improve. We find it very helpful and gives us a simple road map for the month ahead, what we want to focus on and what goals we want to exceed. I am going to open this up to you by sending the questionnaire out first thing tomorrow morning.
If you would like to answer the questions and send them back to me, we will review and than recap at the end of this month and continue the trend month after month. If you do not want to do it, that is completely ok as well, just something that I feel can help rid some of the fomo or head down antics when the market is not performing how we want it, so you can keep your head up and focus on the bigger goals at hand that you are focusing on.
Back to the market, we are in this tight range and eventually we will push one of two directions, higher or lower, if we push higher, realistically we are 3% away from all time highs, and below were walking into a correction which would be completely healthy. We could careless which happens, we just want to continue to focus on what's strong and avoid what isn't. Tends to be much easier when we drown out the noise. 
                                                                                              From Ben G

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Goals Exceeded

  Alpha Chat as a whole locked in $401,000+ in gains this month!

Val closing a $4900 contract with a soccer team!

Tom Ramsay exceeding his summer savings goals!

Ryan Stroh with a $800 day!

Capt Joe having his best month so far! 

 

 

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Macro Rotation Outlook
Dow Jones
266 DCA 256 Stop
SPY
296 DCA 284 Stop
 
Nasdaq
7800 DCA 7400 Stop
 
MDY Mid Cap Stocks
350 DCA 330 Stop
 
IWM Small Caps
152 DCA 144 Stop
BND Bond Market
84.45 Stop
 
10 Year Treasury Note Yielding 1.51%
Refin time! 

 

10 Year Treasury 1.51% 
30 Year Treasury 1.96%
 
 
OIL 
58 DCA 52 Stop
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International Rotation
 
GXC China
92 DCA 82 Stop
  
VGK Europe
53 DCA 51 Stop
VWO Emerging Markets
40.55 DCA 39 Stop
INDA India 
33 DCA 31 Stop
  
RSX Russia
22.55 DCA 21.45 Stop
 
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If you have a friend that can benefit from what you have learned from Trading Experts, shoot me there contact info and we will see if we can help!
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Sector Rotation
Key points
- Best suited in a taxable account
- We are willing to hold positions against us as overall sectors and markets are much less volatile than individual names.
- We are buying or adding (dollar cost averaging) when there are actionable set ups. 
- We are selling for either profit or getting out for break even if better opportunities arise elsewhere in other sectors.
- If you have more than $50k, we can set this model up for you
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Sensitive -  sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions. 
VGT Tech
216 DCA 204 Stop
VDE Energy
78 DCA 72 Stop
 
 
VIS Industrial
144 DCA 134 Stop
 
 
VOX Telecom
88 DCA 84 Stop
 
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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
 
VAW Materials
124 DCA 118 Stop
 
VCR Consumer Discretionary
180 DCA 172 Stop
 
VFH Financials
68 DCA 65 Stop
VNQ REIT
90 Stop
 
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Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.

VDC Consumer Staples
156 DCA 150 Stop
VHT Healthcare
172 DCA 165 Stop
VPU Utilities
136 Stop
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Sub Sector Rotation
IBB Bio Tech
100 Stop
 
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The New Big Picture Set Up

 

The Big Picture WDC $105+ 12 Month Target

Been battling with this WDC since 2018 and had some cute trades here and there however we can start to see the clear down trend that was all of 2018 and how basically all of 2019 was the year of it to base out, next is the grind back to those prior highs. We can see a clear flag forming under this level, it might still need some time however its starting to look better to change the over trend that it has been in. 

 

Big Picture Target $105+
Big Picture Entry $58.05
Stop $49.89

 

 
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The Big Picture's Updated

 

The Big Picture KMB $175+ 12 Month Target

Been battling break even losses in this KMB, still does not seem just quite ready, for now a break even stop at $140. 
Big Picture Target $175+
Big Picture Entry $140.05
Stop $139.89
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Trading Experts Vegas Meet Up

Let me start off by saying, one Cedric is the man, and two if you are ever in Vegas @DreamRacing is a must. It is an expensive day however its worth every penny, this is up there next to heli skiing, an epic day you wont forget! 

We preach that learning from a professional speeds up the learning curve, which is true however we are on the other side of the conversation, being the student is very humbling and really shows how much you can improve with the proper guidance. Learning from Cedric just in those laps around the track from my first to last lap was a 25% improvement in time, lets forget about spinning off the track lol. Having him in the passenger seat saying full throttle, brake hard, coast, full throttle, punch it! Was a wild experience that had me shopping for spec racing Ferrari's all night. 

  

Trading Experts Brooklyn Meet Up

 Such a great time last night getting to catch up with all the Alpha's! We had the whole team out, Braden our app developer made an appearance, Dennis who has been helping us from a podcasting stand point came through, Sam and his editor were on deck as well, who helped us film our new intro so we can continue to put out more videos. Higgins smuggled in a bottle of Henny along with dozens of Power Caps that we were handing out like hot cakes! Got to hear more about Valentino's new coaching business, and Phil Niemans wild nights (that he never invites us too) while he parties with Paris Hilton. Sam P and Kevin made the long haul from south jersey to have a few beers with the crew. Yeno (Big Papi) who has been helping the Alphas get jobs stopped by as well, had some accounting experts Yousef and Alejandro stop by as well! Brooklyn native Yosnel showed Andy, Yeno and myself around into the wee hours of the night!

We really appreciate everyone who made it out and it was amazing to see the progression from the last big meet up back in November at Beauty in Essex where most of the conversation revolved around future business ideas, fast forward 7 months later, pretty much everyone in the picture above is running some type of business that they started, from soccer coaching to sleeping pills to podcasting to accounting to video editing, selling on amazon and real estate! 

Trading Experts NYC Meet Up

Such a great time and thanks to all the Alpha's that made it out to this weekends meet up in NYC! Shake and myself will be planning another NYC meet up next month!

Trading Experts Miami/Bimini Bahamas
All in all, the trip was a great success and having a smaller group it was much easier to move around, explore and share real experiences. As much fun as the huge group trips are, its hard to get those 1 on 1 connections with some much going on. I have not even began to think of the next trip however it will most likely be some time in the end of July. If you are interested in coming, let me know, as I would like to keep it like this trip of half a dozen members.
 
 
  
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Much easier to hit the target, when we know what we are aiming for

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