Take any hundred people at the start of their working careers and follow them for 40 years until they reach retirement age, and here's what you'll find, according to the Social Security Administration:
1 will be wealthy, 4 will be financially secure, 5 will continue to work because they need to, 36 will have already died, and 54 will be broke living off Social Security and help from family. 5% are successful while 95% are unsuccessful. Care to guess which group had financial planning?
Clients pay thousands of dollars a year to have a financial plan run for them at my investment bank, we include this benefit to you for no cost. If you would like us to put a plan together for you and your family so you can get closer to being in the 5%, shoot me a message on Group Me saying "planning" and we will show you the simple steps to get you to your first your first million.
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Broad Market Outlook
This week was a sea of new highs across the board with the Dow 30 leading the charge higher. New highs after often met with new highs, while new lows are often met with new lows, as you are aware of. A week, month, quarter from now we could and should expect to see new highs however that does not mean to blindly buy anything and get sloppy or expect a straight line higher.
All year it has been a combination of Groundhog Day (6 more weeks of winter (gains) and Christmas wrapped into one (gifts upon gifts), since the start of 2018, we have seen 4 steep uptrend, followed by corrections and one even technically being a bear market even if it was only for an hour. Now I am not trying to scare you out of your positions, more to keep you aware that we will see some downside at some point, when? Your guess as good as mine, our stops will tell us when.
We can see the last 3 parties lasted 9 weeks, 13 weeks and 18 weeks. What followed was a 11 week, 14 week and a 5 week hangover. We are only 6 weeks into this party!
Its still early in the night so there is no reason to head to coat check or get your valet tickets ready, just realize that the bar does close at some point and the cleaning crew has to come in before they can open back up again.
There is so much opportunity out there during a time (summer) when the market is usually slow and boring, lets continue to ring the register so we can go hang out at the dinner while everyone else rushes to grab the last drink at last call.
From Ben G
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Goals Exceeded
Mike Higgins $5,000 sold on Amazon!
Goals on the Radar
Valentino's 10th client
D Wood $1,000 Day
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Macro Rotation Outlook
Dow Jones
Bullish engulfing on the weekly through all time highs, the large caps are leading this market.
SPY
Below 295 close your tab, and below 290 head to a different bar, for now let the good times roll!
Nasdaq
New highs tend to be met with new highs in time, to play some defense, under 7700 I will be leaving the party.
MDY Mid Cap Stocks
Will be adding above 360.
IWM Small Caps
Will be adding above 158.
BND Bond Market
Bonds starting to lose a bit of steam after the 10 year started to hold up at 2%.
10 Year TreasuryNote Yielding 2.11%
Back near the 2% level which has been an area of prior support and resistance, we could see it hold here and bounce, however bigger picture seems like were touching lows before we retest highs.
Full stop major red flag, will be if the 10 year yields more than the 30 year and as you can see there is still a .50% difference between the two.
10 Year Treasury 2.11%
30 Year Treasury 2.63%
OIL
Oil below 59, look out below!
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International Rotation
China
China still needs some time to set up in this wide base.
Japan
Japan continuing to flag under this 56.
Europe
Europe like the Emerging Markets are setting up with some higher lows under this 56, that too will be a spot to add in time.
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets putting in a nice higher low as it continues to base under this 44, in time that will be the spot to add.
India
The elections are behind India and we can still set how 36 is a solid level.
Russia
Russia on its way to retest those prior highs, we all know what tends to happen there.
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If you have a friend that can benefit from what you have learned from Trading Experts, shoot me there contact info and we will see if we can help!
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Sector Rotation
Key points
- Best suited in a taxable account
- We are willing to hold positions against us as overall sectors and markets are much less volatile than individual names.
- We are buying or adding (dollar cost averaging) when there are actionable set ups.
- We are selling for either profit or getting out for break even if better opportunities arise elsewhere in other sectors.
- If you have more than $50k, we can set this model up for you
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Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
VGT Tech
Tech to new highs, up that stop to 212 if it turns.
VDE Energy
Energy still looking to be "h" over.
VIS Industrial
VIS setting up with a tight entry under 148.
VOX Telecom
After a year and a half of breaking down and basing under 90, telecom is finally starting to join the party, now I am really talking to myself here, need to sit on my hands and hold at least to $104.
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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
VAW Materials
Will be looking to add to VAW above 130.
VCR Consumer Discretionary
Discretionary's are cooking as they broke out to new all time highs, 182 or 180 stop.
VFH Financials
71.05 buy stop vs 69.
VNQ REIT
85.89 stop.
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Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
VDC Consumer Staples
Staples are off to the races after taking out 3rd times a charm through the 152 highs, for now a hold vs 148.
VHT Healthcare
Flagging in a new 8 point range after breaking the wedge to the upside, can look to add above 178 vs 170 for now.
VPU Utilities
129.89 stop and let this sector work.
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Sub Sector Rotation
IBB Bio Tech
Holding vs $100, will look to add above $112.
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The New BigPicture Set Up
The BigPicture KMB $180+ 12 Month Target
KMB has been setting up under $139 for 3 years now and attempting 4th times a charm at this level. I will be buying $139 vs $132 for a move to $180 in time.
BigPicture Target $180+
BigPicture Entry $139.05
Stop $131.89
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The BigPicture's Updated
The BigPicture SRPT $175+ 12 Month Target
Let your winners run, $139.89 stop for now!
BigPicture Target $175+
BigPicture Entry $125.05
Stop $139.89
The BigPicture VOYA $75+ 12 Month Target
Break even stop and let it work!
BigPicture Target $75+
BigPicture Entry $55.05
Stop $54.89
The BigPicture FMX $126+ 12 Month Target
$100.05 buy stop for when its ready!
BigPicture Target $126+
BigPicture Entry $100.05
Stop $95.89
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Trading Experts Brooklyn Meet Up
Such a great time last night getting to catch up with all the Alpha's! We had the whole team out, Braden our app developer made an appearance, Dennis who has been helping us from a podcasting stand point came through, Sam and his editor were on deck as well, who helped us film our new intro so we can continue to put out more videos. Higgins smuggled in a bottle of Henny along with dozens of Power Caps that we were handing out like hot cakes! Got to hear more about Valentino's new coaching business, and Phil Niemans wild nights (that he never invites us too) while he parties with Paris Hilton. Sam P and Kevin made the long haul from south jersey to have a few beers with the crew. Yeno (Big Papi) who has been helping the Alphas get jobs stopped by as well, had some accounting experts Yousef and Alejandro stop by as well! Brooklyn native Yosnel showed Andy, Yeno and myself around into the wee hours of the night!
We really appreciate everyone who made it out and it was amazing to see the progression from the last big meet up back in November at Beauty in Essex where most of the conversation revolved around future business ideas, fast forward 7 months later, pretty much everyone in the picture above is running some type of business that they started, from soccer coaching to sleeping pills to podcasting to accounting to video editing, selling on amazon and real estate!
Trading Experts NYC Meet Up
Such a great time and thanks to all the Alpha's that made it out to this weekends meet up in NYC! Shake and myself will be planning another NYC meet up next month!
Trading Experts Miami/Bimini Bahamas
All in all, the trip was a great success and having a smaller group it was much easier to move around, explore and share real experiences. As much fun as the huge group trips are, its hard to get those 1 on 1 connections with some much going on. I have not even began to think of the next trip however it will most likely be some time in the end of July. If you are interested in coming, let me know, as I would like to keep it like this trip of half a dozen members.
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When everyone is high fiving, what should we be doing?
