The Big Picture Outline
- Financial Planning
- Broad Market Outlook
- Macro Rotation
- Sector Rotation
- Sub Sector Rotation
- New Big Picture Idea
- Updated Big Picture Idea's
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Financial Planning
Take any hundred people at the start of their working careers and follow them for 40 years until they reach retirement age, and here's what you'll find, according to the Social Security Administration:
1 will be wealthy, 4 will be financially secure, 5 will continue to work because they need to, 36 will have already died, and 54 will be broke living off Social Security and help from family. 5% are successful while 95% are unsuccessful. Care to guess which group had financial planning?
Clients pay thousands of dollars a year to have a financial plan run for them at my investment bank, we include this benefit to you for no cost. If you would like us to put a plan together for you and your family so you can get closer to being in the 5%, shoot me a message on GroupMe saying "planning" and we will show you the simple steps to get you to your first your first million.
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Broad Market Outlook
Usually the shorten weeks are a snooze fest however there were quite the amount of fireworks going off if you stuck to the game plan. Going into this week the large caps (DIA) continues to look the best with the most room to run before running into any major psychological levels, be ready for the DOW 30k headlines soon. While the SPY is very close to its 300 magnet that 9/10 money managers have been touting for 18 months now (not as much upside) while the laggard in this 3 man race, Nasdaq is retesting its prior high, sure we can poke through however we know what usually comes after a retest.
Sector wise Financials and Materials are showing the best risk reward set ups among the other sectors with tight risk entries near macro levels of resistance.
Ton of opportunities going into next week, HI 40, CMA 74, DRI 124, TIF 96, BA 360, GWPH 180, GDI 36, MNST 66. Keep it simple, up your stops, let your stocks work and be patient with your winners!
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Goals Exceeded
Cris Mora 14th +Comma Day!
Night Caps becoming Amazon's Choice!
Adam Rav $23,000 Day!
Ivan Martin reaching $100,000 in his account!
Leshawn Hill with a $13,000 day!
Capt Joe with a $12,000 month!
Coulson McCullough saving $100 a week (just out out HS!)
Goals on the Radar
Valentino's 10th client
D Wood $1,000 Day
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Macro Rotation Outlook
Cheat Sheet
Dow Jones 270 DCA 264 Stop
S&P 500 290 Stop
Nasdaq Retesting prior highs
Mid Caps 360 DCA 345 Stop
Small Caps 160 DCA 150 Stop
Bonds 82 Stop
10 Year at 2.05%
Oil below 59 a barrel should see lower prices
Dow Jones
The large caps are looking the best chart wise under this 270 level, with plenty of room to go before the DOW 30k talk, 264 is the out.
SPY
The SPY showed us 3rd times a charm, however the 300 psychological one has been an anchor for quite some time. Time will tell if it can break through it, for now anything above 290 is fair game.
Nasdaq
What happens when a stock retest prior highs? It usually looks the absolute best to breakout and sure it can for a bit however no one is really pumped to be buying, the pop is like reopening a week old can of coke. Expecting a fizz not a 4th of July explosion through these prior highs.
MDY Mid Cap Stocks
360 DCA 345 Stop
IWM Small Caps
160 DCA 150 Stop
BND Bond Market
82 Stop
10 Year Treasury Note Yielding 2.05%
Back near the 2% level which has been an area of prior support and resistance, we could see it hold here and bounce, however bigger picture seems like were touching lows before we retest highs.
Full stop major red flag, will be if the 10 year yields more than the 30 year and as you can see there is still a .50% difference between the two.
10 Year Treasury 2.05%
30 Year Treasury 2.54%
OIL
Below 59 a barrel look out below
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International Rotation
China 88 Stop
Japan 56 DCA
Europe 56 DCA
Emerging Markets 44 DCA
India 36 DCA
Russia 23.45 Stop
GXC China
88 Stop
EWJ Japan
56 DCA
VGK Europe
56 DCA
VWO Emerging Markets
44 DCA 39 Stop
INDA India
36 DCA
RSX Russia
Russia is getting close to retesting that prior high, upping the stop vs the weekly low just in case.
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If you have a friend that can benefit from what you have learned from Trading Experts, shoot me there contact info and we will see if we can help!
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Sector Rotation
Key points
- Best suited in a taxable account
- We are willing to hold positions against us as overall sectors and markets are much less volatile than individual names.
- We are buying or adding (dollar cost averaging) when there are actionable set ups.
- We are selling for either profit or getting out for break even if better opportunities arise elsewhere in other sectors.
- If you have more than $50k, we can set this model up for you!
Cheat Sheet
VGT 207 Stop
VDE 78 Stop
VIS 148 Buy Stop
VOX 90 DCA
VAW 130 DCA
VCR 176 Stop
VFH 71 Buy Stop
VNQ 86 Stop
VDC 142 Stop
VHT 171 Stop
VPU 130 Stop
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Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
VGT Tech
Poking above the retest of prior highs, we could see it drift higher, however I wouldn't be betting the house on it, 207 stop.
VDE Energy
88 DCA 78 Stop
VIS Industrial
148 DCA 143 Stop
VOX Telecom
Vox had me on the ropes for almost 2 years down during its macro downtrend and its finally changing trend, added above 88 and the next spot to add will be above 90.
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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
VAW Materials
Materials like the Fin names have been setting up nicely, we can see how its near a prior horizontal and diagonal resistance area, above 130 I will be adding.
VCR Consumer Discretionary
We can see in VCR how after getting to back to retest those highs, it had to shakeout before making a 3rd charms attempt at new highs, we should expect something similar in the broad markets.
VFH Financials
This 70.50/71 area has been resistance for quit some time, added through $70.50 and will look to add above $71.
VNQ REIT
86 Stop
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Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
VDC Consumer Staples
142 stop for now as VDC retest the prior highs
VHT Healthcare
178 DCA, 171 Stop
VPU Utilities
130 Stop
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Sub Sector Rotation
Cheat Sheet
IBB 100 Stop
IBB Bio Tech
Holding this IBB.
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The New Big Picture Set Up
The Big Picture DRI $160+ 12 Month Target
We have been battling with this DRI for a bit, took a small trade in it and a break even trade it the name recently. On Friday we got a tight risk add and now we can add through the $124!
Big Picture Target $160+
Big Picture Entry $124.05
Stop $119.89
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The Big Picture's Updated
The Big Picture SRPT $175+ 12 Month Target
Last week we were pretty enthusiastic about this name and no surprise it gave us a small middle finger, I am still in and will add $125, main lesson learned is the 30 minutes rule - avoid putting in buy stops until after 10am!
Congrats to everyone still holding, took this off prior to my trip to Costa, expensive trip!
Big Picture Target $175+
Big Picture Entry $125.05
Stop $144.89
The Big Picture VOYA $75+ 12 Month Target
Voya shook some people out for sure when it broke $52 and snapped right back showing us people still want to be involved. Will have to buy the $55 break.
Tighten up the risk by a few dollars!
Voya is starting to break out of this $55 finally, break even stop for now so we can see what it can do!
Big Picture Target $75+
Big Picture Entry $55.05
Stop $54.89
The Big Picture FMX $126+ 12 Month Target
On Friday, after scanning a 1,000+ charts, I stumbled upon FMX, that has been basing for 6 years under the magically $100 level, last week it ticked $100 and pulled back. So far this has been the smallest pull back only a mere 4 dollars. I will be buying above $100 vs $96 to start, however I will be quickly upping this to break even, the goal will be immediate follow through, this name has been dancing around $100 for 6 years, it could easily do the same for another year.
If we do get follow through and I sell anywhere less than 126 this trade would be a fail, if it breaks lets hold this sucker for the retest.
When $100 goes, we will be in!
FMX still setting up under $100.
Big Picture Target $126+
Big Picture Entry $100.05
Stop $95.89
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Trading Experts Brooklyn Meet Up
Such a great time last night getting to catch up with all the Alpha's! We had the whole team out, Braden our app developer made an appearance, Dennis who has been helping us from a podcasting stand point came through, Sam and his editor were on deck as well, who helped us film our new intro so we can continue to put out more videos. Higgins smuggled in a bottle of Henny along with dozens of Power Caps that we were handing out like hot cakes! Got to hear more about Valentino's new coaching business, and Phil Niemans wild nights (that he never invites us too) while he parties with Paris Hilton. Sam P and Kevin made the long haul from south jersey to have a few beers with the crew. Yeno (Big Papi) who has been helping the Alphas get jobs stopped by as well, had some accounting experts Yousef and Alejandro stop by as well! Brooklyn native Yosnel showed Andy, Yeno and myself around into the wee hours of the night!
We really appreciate everyone who made it out and it was amazing to see the progression from the last big meet up back in November at Beauty in Essex where most of the conversation revolved around future business ideas, fast forward 7 months later, pretty much everyone in the picture above is running some type of business that they started, from soccer coaching to sleeping pills to podcasting to accounting to video editing, selling on amazon and real estate!
Trading Experts NYC Meet Up
Such a great time and thanks to all the Alpha's that made it out to this weekends meet up in NYC! Shake and myself will be planning another NYC meet up next month!
Trading Experts Miami/Bimini Bahamas
All in all, the trip was a great success and having a smaller group it was much easier to move around, explore and share real experiences. As much fun as the huge group trips are, its hard to get those 1 on 1 connections with some much going on. I have not even began to think of the next trip however it will most likely be some time in the end of July. If you are interested in coming, let me know, as I would like to keep it like this trip of half a dozen members.
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