The Big Picture Outline
- Financial Planning
- Broad Market Outlook
- Macro Rotation
- Sector Rotation
- Sub Sector Rotation
- New Big Picture Idea
- Updated Big Picture Idea's
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Financial Planning
Take any hundred people at the start of their working careers and follow them for 40 years until they reach retirement age, and here's what you'll find, according to the Social Security Administration:
1 will be wealthy, 4 will be financially secure, 5 will continue to work because they need to, 36 will have already died, and 54 will be broke living off Social Security and help from family. 5% are successful while 95% are unsuccessful. Care to guess which group had financial planning?
Clients pay thousands of dollars a year to have a financial plan run for them at my investment bank, we include this benefit to you for no cost. If you would like us to put a plan together for you and your family so you can get closer to being in the 5%, shoot me a message on GroupMe saying "planning" and we will show you the simple steps to get you to your first your first million.
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Broad Market Outlook
The market did basically nothing last week broadly, yet the Alpha chat continues to lock in gains and find the next high probability set ups. After having a chat with Cris M yesterday he mentioned how some members were having some troubles in this market and most were afraid to admit it in the group. You have to remember that we are all here to help one another and sometimes it might be hard to be vulnerable and show your flaws to 200+ sets of eyes however that is not the only option. You can always private message Shake, myself, or something in the chat that you are close with. Have an objection set of eyes to take a different approach to the problem tends to be just whats needed.
Remember that trades fail, every day cannot be a comma day or whichever dollar amount your goals are, we learn more from our mess ups, and the successes keep us in the game. Embrace the lessons that the market teaches.
Market wise, its still a stock pickers market as we are seeing first hand, the SPY did nothing all week, yet we still found some solid spots to park our money. When we get good stock, think GH or DXCM were great examples this week, if day 1 we get a monster move higher, you need to be patient, most solid swing trades are a min 3 day move. Should not be giving away stock day 1, if you LOD stopped the real winners, you can catch the real meat of those moves vs giving great stock away.
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Goals Exceeded
Cristhain Mora 11th +Comma Day!
Brian Labonge 1st Comma Day!
Adam Rav $100k Average Day Amazon!
Goals on the Radar
Valentino's 10th client
Mike Higgins getting 50 feedback's on Amazon (with the Alpha's help)
D Wood $1,000 Day
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Macro Rotation Outlook
Cheat Sheet
Nasdaq 7600 resistance 6900 support
S&P 500 292 resistance 272 support
Dow Jones 267 4th times
Mid Caps 350 base breakout
Small Caps 160 base breakout
China 97 DCA
Japan 55 DCA
Europe 56 DCA
Emerging Markets 44 DCA
India 36 DCA
Russia breaking out
Bonds heading to highs
10 Year at 2.09%
Oil under $64 a barrel
Nasdaq
6900 to 7600 is the new range, in time this 7600 will be a level we break however it will need some time to pull back into this range before a real breakout back to highs.
SPY
Now most are getting giddy about 3rd times a charm in the SPY, however lets take a stroll down memory lane for a second.
Think of 300 in the SPY as 212 was back in 2015 to 2017, for 2 years 212 which were all time highs at that time, could not break, and even after it did, it pulled back under and gave the sneaky buy back. I say 300 since that is a broad psychological level that most can anchor to pretty easily.
So far we are only about a year and a half into this new range at highs, still a stock pickers market.
Dow Jones
Dow Jones will be the first to lead us higher overall, best chart and already heading for 4th times which still might not be enough, yet its ahead of the SPY, NDX, MDY and IWM's chart wise.
MDY Mid Cap Stocks
Mid caps are working on this 350 base breakout, might not be ready this time around, in time thought should be a great spot to add.
IWM Small Caps
The small caps lead the race for most of 2018 however this year they have fallen to the back of the pack, still a long ways before we see that 160 pivot high taken out.
GXC China
An avoid until the trade war drama is actually done.
EWJ Japan
55 us a spot to DCA.
VGK Europe
56 is the next spot to DCA on the way up.
VWO Emerging Markets
Let it base and we can buy it through 44 down the road.
INDA India
India is still setting up under 36, we will see if they can hold a higher low here which would be great to load the boat through 36 on tighter risk!
RSX Russia
Russia showing us what could be in store for India, in time!
BND Bond Market
Remember as rates fall, bond prices spike!
10 Year Treasury Note Yielding 2.09%
Back near the 2% level which has been an area of prior support and resistance, we could see it hold here and bounce, however bigger picture seems like were touching lows before we retest highs.
Full stop major red flag, will be if the 10 year yields more than the 30 year and as you can see there is still a .50% difference between the two.
10 Year Treasury 2.09%
30 Year Treasury 2.58%
OIL
Oil back under $64, sure it can flush that level however it seems like it will need more time to really set up.
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If you have a friend that can benefit from what you have learned from Trading Experts, shoot me there contact info and we will see if we can help!
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Sector Rotation
Key points
- Best suited in a taxable account
- We are willing to hold positions against us as overall sectors and markets are much less volatile than individual names.
- We are buying or adding (dollar cost averaging) when there are actionable set ups.
- We are selling for either profit or getting out for break even if better opportunities arise elsewhere in other sectors.
- If you have more than $50k, we can set this model up for you
Cheat Sheet
VGT Lower Highs
VDE Avoiding
VIS 144 DCA
VOX 88 DCA
VAW took profits
VCR 182 DCA
VFH 69 DCA
VNQ 84 Stop
VDC 149 Stop
VHT Avoiding
VPU 126 Stop
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Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
VGT Tech
Lower highs, should expect that trend to continue, the key factor is if we can hold 188 support. If we can we should expect to see this eventually at new highs, if it takes that out a roll over back to lows would be probable.
VDE Energy
Energy and Oil had been lagging and looks as if a roll over back down through 72 seems much more likely that +$100 any time soon.
VIS Industrial
144 DCA when its ready!
VOX Telecom
88 DCA when its ready!
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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
VAW Materials
Sold some into the downtrend line.
VCR Consumer Discretionary
182 DCA
VFH Financials
69 DCA
VNQ REIT
84 Stop
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Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
VDC Consumer Staples
149 Stop
VHT Healthcare
Still wedging, still an avoid
VPU Utilities
126 Stop
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Sub Sector Rotation
Cheat Sheet
IBB sub 100 soon
IBB Bio Tech
Looks as if we will see a break of 100 to the downside soon.
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The New Big Picture Set Up
The Big Picture SRPT $175+ 12 Month Target
Last week we were pretty enthusiastic about this name and no surprise it gave us a small middle finger, I am still in and will add $125, main lesson learned is the 30 minutes rule - avoid putting in buy stops until after 10am!
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The Big Picture's Updated
The Big Picture VOYA $75+ 12 Month Target
Voya shook some people out for sure when it broke $52 and snapped right back showing us people still want to be involved. Will have to buy the $55 break.
Tighten up the risk by a few dollars!
Big Picture Target $75+
Big Picture Entry $55.05
Stop $52.89
The Big Picture FMX $126+ 12 Month Target
On Friday, after scanning a 1,000+ charts, I stumbled upon FMX, that has been basing for 6 years under the magically $100 level, last week it ticked $100 and pulled back. So far this has been the smallest pull back only a mere 4 dollars. I will be buying above $100 vs $96 to start, however I will be quickly upping this to break even, the goal will be immediate follow through, this name has been dancing around $100 for 6 years, it could easily do the same for another year.
If we do get follow through and I sell anywhere less than 126 this trade would be a fail, if it breaks lets hold this sucker for the retest.
When $100 goes, we will be in!
Big Picture Target $126+
Big Picture Entry $100.05
Stop $95.89
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Trading Experts Brooklyn Meet Up
Such a great time last night getting to catch up with all the Alpha's! We had the whole team out, Braden our app developer made an appearance, Dennis who has been helping us from a podcasting stand point came through, Sam and his editor were on deck as well, who helped us film our new intro so we can continue to put out more videos. Higgins smuggled in a bottle of Henny along with dozens of Power Caps that we were handing out like hot cakes! Got to hear more about Valentino's new coaching business, and Phil Niemans wild nights (that he never invites us too) while he parties with Paris Hilton. Sam P and Kevin made the long haul from south jersey to have a few beers with the crew. Yeno (Big Papi) who has been helping the Alphas get jobs stopped by as well, had some accounting experts Yousef and Alejandro stop by as well! Brooklyn native Yosnel showed Andy, Yeno and myself around into the wee hours of the night!
We really appreciate everyone who made it out and it was amazing to see the progression from the last big meet up back in November at Beauty in Essex where most of the conversation revolved around future business ideas, fast forward 7 months later, pretty much everyone in the picture above is running some type of business that they started, from soccer coaching to sleeping pills to podcasting to accounting to video editing, selling on amazon and real estate!
Trading Experts NYC Meet Up
Such a great time and thanks to all the Alpha's that made it out to this weekends meet up in NYC! Shake and myself will be planning another NYC meet up next month!
Trading Experts Miami/Bimini Bahamas
All in all, the trip was a great success and having a smaller group it was much easier to move around, explore and share real experiences. As much fun as the huge group trips are, its hard to get those 1 on 1 connections with some much going on. I have not even began to think of the next trip however it will most likely be some time in the end of July. If you are interested in coming, let me know, as I would like to keep it like this trip of half a dozen members.
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