The Big Picture Outline
- Financial Planning
- Broad Market Outlook
- Macro Rotation
- Sector Rotation
- Sub Sector Rotation
- New Big Picture Idea
- Updated Big Picture Idea's
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Financial Planning
Take any hundred people at the start of their working careers and follow them for 40 years until they reach retirement age, and here's what you'll find, according to the Social Security Administration:
1 will be wealthy, 4 will be financially secure, 5 will continue to work because they need to, 36 will have already died, and 54 will be broke living off Social Security and help from family. 5% are successful while 95% are unsuccessful. Care to guess which group had financial planning?
Clients pay thousands of dollars a year to have a financial plan run for them at my investment bank, we include this benefit to you for no cost. If you would like us to put a plan together for you and your family so you can get closer to being in the 5%, shoot me a message on GroupMe saying "planning" and we will show you the simple steps to get you to your first your first million.
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Broad Market Outlook
What a monster week last week, chat was a bit quiet during that 8% pull back off highs, and in 4 days we snapped back 6% of that move in a few days. This is why you need to stay consistent and wait for the opportunities. Recently chatting with new traders, the main excuse was "the market is tough, I will come back when its easy" sure that's great, however you just missed the easy part and will just ride the roller coaster back down trying to wait for the easy times.
Most successful traders make a majority of there year in 2 out of the 12 months, however no one every knows which of the 2 months are going to be the bread winners. You need to show up every day and be consistent to be successful as that holds true with everything in life.
Hopefully the weekend helped slow down the sugar high of waiting for 9:30 Monday morning to start throwing money at the market. Remember we just ripped 4 days higher into a prior pivot high. Could we retest highs in the market? Of course, however chasing late to the party never pays. With the summer trading season upon on (lower volume), we really need to work on being more collaborative from 9:30 to 10am and less clicking buttons. Nothing worse then rushing into a trade that wasn't needed.
Keep the gains from last week, if you missed a trade or feel behind, who cares, there will be hundreds of more profitable weeks in the future as well as painful weeks too. Have your top 3 ideas for the week and be ready to execute when they present themselves!
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Goals Exceeded
Nick Dhillon $7,000 day!
Brian Ritchie $1,500 day!
Nick Neef Comma Day!
Cristhain Mora Comma Day!
Gina Theodore Comma Day!
Gina Theodore 100% return
Sam Perrelli 100% return
Goals on the Radar
(if you would like to be added to the on the radar goals list send me a DM of your goal)
D Wood $1,000 Day
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Macro Rotation Outlook
Cheat Sheet
Nasdaq dead smack in the middle of new range
S&P 500 4th day up into prior pivot high (defense time)
Dow Jones 4th day up into prior pivot high (defense time)
Mid Caps lagging the large caps
Small Caps lagging the large caps
China avoiding
Japan avoiding
Europe in new range
Emerging Markets in new range
India avoiding
Russia avoiding
Bonds new highs
10 Year at 2.08%
Oil under $64
Nasdaq
Nasdaq is in a new 1,000 point range from 6900 to 7900, we want to be looking to sell up near 8,000 and holders in the middle and buyers near support. For now its holding time.
SPY
The SPY new range is 272 to 295, next time we get down near 272 would be the best sign, up here time to hold and up stops.
Dow Jones
The DOW 30 look like they will be the first to take out new highs and take us higher as the 267 level is much more defined that Nasdaq or the S&P, how long till DOW 30k will be the new headline?
MDY Mid Cap Stocks
Mid caps still lagging behind the larger caps, super clear range and right now we are dead smack in the middle.
IWM Small Caps
Small caps like the Mid's have been lagging in the middle end of the overall range, below 145 we should expect to see a retest of the lows.
GXC China
Still feels like China wants to test those lows before any major change of trend.
EWJ Japan
Japan is trying to find its legs here above $53 however still really an avoid until a strong break of $56.
VGK Europe
Europe forming a nice little $4 range here, hard to buy $56.
VWO Emerging Markets
Macro base forming in the the Emerging Markets, down the road that $44 is going to be a great level to buy however this could take months if not a year to really be ready.
INDA India
India just barely broke that $36 level however did not get any love, for how wild this name trades, avoiding for now.
RSX Russia
Like India, Russia poked through the $22 level with as much enthusiasm
as kids first day back to school.
BND Bond Market
As rates fall, bond prices rip!
10 Year Treasury Note Yielding 2.08%
Back near the 2% level which has been an area of prior support and resistance, we could see it hold here and bounce, however bigger picture seems like were touching lows before we retest highs.
3 Month Treasury 2.27%
2 Year Treasury 1.85%
5 Year Treasury 1.85%
10 Year Treasury 2.08%
30 Year Treasury 2.57%
OIL
Oil back under $64, sure it can flush that level however it seems like it will need more time to really set up.
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Sector Rotation
Key points
- Best suited in a taxable account
- We are willing to hold positions against us as overall sectors and markets are much less volatile than individual names.
- We are buying or adding (dollar cost averaging) when there are actionable set ups.
- We are selling for either profit or getting out for break even if better opportunities arise elsewhere in other sectors.
- If you have more than $20k, we can set this model up for you
Cheat Sheet
VGT 208 prior pivot high
VDE avoiding
VIS holding
VOX holding
VAW 124 Stop
VCR holding
VFH 65 Stop
VNQ 84 Stop
VDC 149 Stop
VHT Wedging
VPU 84 Stop
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Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
VGT Tech
 New range is 188 to 216, right now we are right up under 208 which was another pivot that reminds me of SPY 280 back in December. This would be the spot for sellers to hold it down, not really want to be coming in long, really need to already be positioned.
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VDE Energy
Might be a small bounce here and there to trap longs, the feel is that we h over and retest those lows.
VIS Industrial
We got a nice add up off support, for now were near the next pivot high before the next line of resistance up near 148.
VOX Telecom
Telecom starting to show that 81 to 88 could be the new range, this 88 will be the level to buy in time.
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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
VAW Materials
Materials with a sharp snap back up off lows, was a little early to the buy, as it runs into resistance, could be a spot to up stops and lock some in.
VCR Consumer Discretionary
Sharp V bottom off lows, seems like we should expect to see us test those 182 highs before we are taking out those 164 lows.
VFH Financials
Chart wise, looks great, for now the short term out is 65 as it sets up under 70.
VNQ REIT
REIT's have been cooking putting in a new high, leave the stop and let it work!
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Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
VDC Consumer Staples
Staples showing us what could be in store for some of the other sectors that have V bottomed hard off recent lows, however these vertical moves rarely every last, would be a seller up here or very tight stops.
VHT Healthcare
Healthcare still wedging, will need some time.
VPU Utilities
Like the REIT's leave your stop in and let it work higher!
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Sub Sector Rotation
Cheat Sheet
IBB 100 breakdown in time
IBB Bio Tech
If the Bio's continue with another lower high the 100 breakdown is more a matter of when not if.
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The New Big Picture Set Up
The Big Picture VOYA $75+ 12 Month Target
Voya shook some people out for sure when it broke $52 and snapped right back showing us people still want to be involved. Will have to buy the $55 break.
Big Picture Target $75+
Big Picture Entry $55.05
Stop $50.89
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The Big Picture's Updated
The Big Picture FMX $126+ 12 Month Target
On Friday, after scanning a 1,000+ charts, I stumbled upon FMX, that has been basing for 6 years under the magically $100 level, last week it ticked $100 and pulled back. So far this has been the smallest pull back only a mere 4 dollars. I will be buying above $100 vs $96 to start, however I will be quickly upping this to break even, the goal will be immediate follow through, this name has been dancing around $100 for 6 years, it could easily do the same for another year.
If we do get follow through and I sell anywhere less than 126 this trade would be a fail, if it breaks lets hold this sucker for the retest.
Another higher low and snapped back pretty hard, still need to be ready to buy $100.
Big Picture Target $126+
Big Picture Entry $100.05
Stop $95.89
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Trading Experts NYC Meet Up
Such a great time and thanks to all the Alpha's that made it out to this weekends meet up in NYC! Shake and myself will be planning another NYC meet up next month!
Trading Experts Miami/Bimini Bahamas
All in all, the trip was a great success and having a smaller group it was much easier to move around, explore and share real experiences. As much fun as the huge group trips are, its hard to get those 1 on 1 connections with some much going on. I have not even began to think of the next trip however it will most likely be some time in the end of July. If you are interested in coming, let me know, as I would like to keep it like this trip of half a dozen members.
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