The Big Picture Outline
- Financial Planning
- Broad Market Outlook
- Macro Rotation
- Sector Rotation
- Sub Sector Rotation
- New Big Picture Idea
- Updated Big Picture Idea's
Take any hundred people at the start of their working careers and follow them for 40 years until they reach retirement age, and here's what you'll find, according to the Social Security Administration:
1 will be wealthy, 4 will be financially secure, 5 will continue to work because they need to, 36 will have already died, and 54 will be broke living off Social Security and help from family. 5% are successful while 95% are unsuccessful. Care to guess which group had financial planning?
Clients pay thousands of dollars a year to have a financial plan run for them at my investment bank, we include this benefit to you for no cost. If you would like us to put a plan together for you and your family so you can get closer to being in the 5%, shoot me a message on GroupMe saying "planning" and we will show you the simple steps to get you to your first your first million.
Broad Market Outlook
When the market hugs support prior it looks like the worst idea ever, than if it holds we look back and wonder why didn't we buy. After the run we have been on and the old adage, sell in May and go away, I have a feeling we will see sub 280 in the SPY this week. Now before you start pacing back and forth, and applying to drive for UBER, realize markets rise and fall. We have seen this over and over, yet for some reason most people still are shocked that the market has the audacity to fall from time to time. Let it fall (broadly) and scan the market for set ups.
ROKU and PGR, are great examples of the less is more environment we are in, you should have a list of 10-20 names on your radar to buy, and narrow that list down to the hand full of buy stops that you are entering. Once the orders are in, move on with your day. If you are using RH and pulling up a different broker to "look at level 2" you are wasting your time.
There are still plenty of bull flags out there, not intraday 5 min bull flags, weekly flags that have been setting up for months even years. It is much easier to catch ROKU and hold it or grab PGR and trail it, than trying to jump from name to name just because someone mentions it in the chat. Less is more is the revolving theme. Buy on the way up, up your stops and let your winners work.
My list of names on my radar are AMP 150, ALXN 140, UHAL 400, CHE 336, UTX 144, RP 62, TMK 89, VOYA 55, DFS 82, STFC 35, EXPO 58, DNKN 77, TECH 204, ELAN 33.55, LNG 68, FMC 80, DRI 122, SRPT 125, HSIC 70, EXPO 58, MET 48, CORE 39, BOLD 42.
Going into the week I have 3 buy stops entered, FMX 100, ABBV 82 DCA, NKE 84 DCA.
Valentino getting his first client for his soccer academy
Happy Birthday to Yousef!!
Goals on the Radar
Nick Neef Comma Day
Macro Rotation Outlook
Nasdaq Next Spot 6900
S&P 500 280 Stop
Dow Jones 252 Stop
Mid Caps above support
Small Caps above support
China heading to lows
Emerging Markets basing
India 36 DCA
Russia 22 DCA
Bonds inching higher
10 Year at 2.32%
Oil seems to be heading lower
7700 looks like the sneaky buy back however for now seem we need to play around in this 7,000 range.
Looks like we might be seeing sub 280 this week, and if so who cares, we need a hard shakeout if we every want to take out 3,000.
252 is holding so clean that it is screaming to smoke that support area, in time 268 looks like a text book breakout level.
MDY Mid Cap Stocks
Mid caps like the Small caps looking as if they can hold this support level of 336, if not, its a long way back down to low.
IWM Small Caps
Small caps are coming into support and look as it they could hold above 148 for now.
Little bear flag over in Japan, avoiding.
Europe a bit behind the EM however we should expect them to follow suit, trading is a $9 range between 47 and 56.
VWO Emerging Markets
EM continuing to form the next base after the downtrend break between 36 and 44.
With elections going on in India no surprise the market is gaping up and down with 36 still being the major area of resistance.
This $22 level looking great!
BND Bond Market
10 Year Treasury Note Yielding 2.32%
3 Month Treasury 2.34%
2 Year Treasury 2.16%
5 Year Treasury 2.12%
10 Year Treasury 2.32%
30 Year Treasury 2.75%
Oil is showing us that $75 a barrel might be the short term high for some time.
All around avoid for now.
Still setting up up $88 like Financials, Telecom has been battling with $88 for over a year and a half.
Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
Are taking out the recent pivot low, not much stopping it from wanting to tag the $112 area.
VCR Consumer Discretionary
Next line in the sand is 164, remember they tend to fall back to earth even faster than they rose to the sky.
$68 has been a major resistance level for the last 7 months and it finally started to break above it, will continue to DCA above 68.
84 stop, set and forget.
Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
VDC Consumer Staples
145 stop, set and forget.
Still wedging, 163 stop.
126 stop, set and forget.
Sub Sector Rotation
IBB 100 next major area
IBB Bio Tech
Still looks like IBB wants to break that $100 level.
The New Big Picture Set Up
The Big Picture VOYA $75+ 12 Month Target
VOYA is setting up for 5th times a charm through $55 on $3 risk.
The Big Picture's Updated
The Big Picture FMX $126+ 12 Month Target
On Friday, after scanning a 1,000+ charts, I stumbled upon FMX, that has been basing for 6 years under the magically $100 level, last week it ticked $100 and pulled back. So far this has been the smallest pull back only a mere 4 dollars. I will be buying above $100 vs $96 to start, however I will be quickly upping this to breakeven, the goal will be immediate follow through, this name has been dancing around $100 for 6 years, it could easily do the same for another year.
If we do get follow through and I sell anywhere less than 126 this trade would be a fail, if it breaks lets hold this sucker for the retest.
Still setting up in this $4 range under $100.
Big Picture Target $126+
Big Picture Entry $100.05
The Big Picture PGR $95+ 12 Month Target
PGR has gone on a crazy run this year and has started to flag exactly how we would like to see it, I started a feeler position to keep an eye on it, and will look to buy through 74.
Upped the stop to $78.89.
Big Picture Target $95+
Big Picture Entry $74.05
The Big Picture CDNS $54+ 12 Month Target
So we are shifting gears away from the large cap names and taking a look at CDNS that has been setting up through this 47 level since July. Now this is by no means a cake walk 47 buy as it has ran basically in a straight line up from 40. Will start light and if it wants to blast 47 and never look back even better, if it wants to start setting out we should have not problem adding in time.
Are we finally going to get stopped out of this monster winner?
Big Picture Target of $54 exceeded
Trading Experts NYC Meet Up
Such a great time and thanks to all the Alpha's that made it out to this weekends meet up in NYC! Shake and myself will be planning another NYC meet up next month!
Trading Experts Miami/Bimini Bahamas
We might be Trading Experts, however we are no photo experts, this was the only photo we took the whole weekend, there were a few funny highlights from the trip last week:
Kriss, Heaven, Capt Joe and Skender all won money at the casino, which was awesome to see them all actually leave with more money than they came with.
Getting to South Bimini required a bit of traveling taking ferry to ferry and having golf carts on both island, however the views on that private island especially at night were simply unbelievable.
Our goal was to see one of the sunken ships that was about 5 miles off the coast, after talking with a few locals, our friend Coconut Joe said he had one of the best captain on the island for a price only a fraction of what we have paid in the past to charter boats in Exuma and Turks. I didn't bat an eye as he mentions the boat is not "that pretty", when the guy pulled up, it was basically a drunk homeless man driving a 30 year of raft with a moped engine attached. One being all for adventure, we hoped in and set sail on a trip where we almost had to kill a man.
At first the drunken hobo was funny, however after he drunkenly pulled out his machinate and told us he was friends with Bill (Gates), we noticed some trouble, now obviously nothing actually happened however there were a few tense moments, at one point Kris was about to throw the guy overboard after his phone fell in the water. I eventually did (throw him overboard) which is still one of my highlights of the trip. We dropped everyone off on the beach and I stayed back with the hobo to go get our golf cart at the other end of the island, my buddy Skender stayed back with me, the captain said I could drive the boat(raft), so as he stood up to let me take over the controls, I ripped the steering wheel and sent him flying over the side of the boat, the look on this hobo's face as he fell off the side fully dressed will forever be locked in my head. He was quick or maybe the boat was just that slow that he was able to hold onto the back of the boat, so we had to pull him back on board instead of leaving him in the ocean.
All in all, the trip was a great success and having a smaller group it was much easier to move around, explore and share real experiences. As much fun as the huge group trips are, its hard to get those 1 on 1 connections with some much going on. I have not even began to think of the next trip however it will most likely be some time in the end of July. If you are interested in coming, let me know, as I would like to keep it like this trip of half a dozen members.