The Big Picture Outline
- Financial Planning
- Broad Market Outlook
- Macro Rotation
- Sector Rotation
- Sub Sector Rotation
- New Big Picture Idea
- Updated Big Picture Idea's
Take any hundred people at the start of their working careers and follow them for 40 years until they reach retirement age, and here's what you'll find, according to the Social Security Administration:
1 will be wealthy, 4 will be financially secure, 5 will continue to work because they need to, 36 will have already died, and 54 will be broke living off Social Security and help from family. 5% are successful while 95% are unsuccessful. Care to guess which group had financial planning?
Clients pay thousands of dollars a year to have a financial plan run for them at my investment bank, we include this benefit to you for no cost. If you would like us to put a plan together for you and your family so you can get closer to being in the 5%, shoot me a message on GroupMe saying "planning" and we will show you the simple steps to get you to your first your first million.
Broad Market Outlook
The market is continuing its run to retest those highs, most of the end of year talk was around the trade deal and future earnings, most set such a low bar for Q1 earnings, that if companies just barely exceed expectations we should see good reaction from stocks and the market itself (Do NOT take this as an excuse to gamble on earnings).
This whole time we have been leading on the camp of retest prior highs, get met with sellers and pull back a bit, however what if we are wrong? What if we want to break out to new highs? Regardless of what the market does or the stock you buy if we continue to do what works, we will be rewarded. Buy on the way up, have our stops in, and let them do the heavy lifting.
Macro Rotation Outlook
Nasdaq inch away from all time highs
S&P 500 inch away from all time highs
Dow Jones inch away from all time highs
Mid Caps lagging behind the large caps
Small Caps lagging behind large and mid
China grinding higher
Japan flagging under 56
Europe breaking downtrend
Emerging Markets grinding higher
India flagging under 36
Russia flagging under 21.50
Bonds pulling back
10 Year at 2.56%
USD still flagging
Oil still grinding higher
A mere 100 points away from retesting all time highs.
A mere 4 points away from retesting all time highs.
1% away from the market is perfect.
MDY Mid Cap Stocks
Mid caps lagging a bit however the overall tune seems to be a retest is in the cards.
IWM Small Caps
Small caps lagging far behind the large and mid's trying to play catch up.
That double bottom held like a champ!
Japan still flagging down here, keep an eye on that 56 level.
Europe finally starting to poke out of this downtrend, for now its really sit on our hands time to give it time to work higher.
VWO Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets are showing what could be in store for Europe as it continues to break the downtrend. Hand sitting time.
India is looking sick, one of the wildest markets ripping 10% up, down and around like its no one business, this 36 level looking solid in time.
Russia has been setting up for a while now and I picked up some last week yet it was not ready, not the end of the world just have to be ready to add again.
BND Bond Market
Doesn't hurt to have some bonds for the rainy days, trying to trade them is a waste of time and energy.
10 Year Treasury Note Yielding 2.56%
People in finance love to add 1 extra layer to confuse everyday people, look at any financial newspaper, and the yields below will be all out of order, just enough to make you scratch your head.
To keep it simple, below they are in order from shortest to longest maturity, in simplest terms, if you were loaning money to a friend for a week or another friend for a year, which would you charge more? The longer loan, same goes for the market, when you are charging more for a shorter term loan that shows your lack of confidence in the market. With the 3 month yield more than the 2 and 5 year, not the best sign.
3 Month Treasury 2.38 %(Should be lower than the rest)
2 Year Treasury 2.40% (Should be lower than the rest)
5 Year Treasury 2.37%
10 Year Treasury 2.56%
30 Year Treasury 2.97%
Oil still trying to inch higher and higher and work its way back to those prior highs.
Still having some trouble at the 92 level however might not be trouble for long.
Industrial's showing up they want to work on that major level of 152.
Telecom finally broke the 2 year downtrend and now it has to battle with 88 which was resistance all of 2018.
Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
126 stop and let it work.
VCR Consumer Discretionary
176 stop and let it work.
4th time at this 68/50 area.
Leave that stop in and let it work higher.
Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
VDC Consumer Staples
Sub Sector Rotation
IBB 106 stop
IBB Bio Tech
The New Big Picture Set Up
The Big Picture IP $67+ 12 Month Target
We have been hawking this IP 48 for some time now, I have been trading around in IP since 2017 and have caught a few nice trades in it. This 48 base break on 2 dollars risk looks worth the cost of admission.
Big Picture Target $67+
Big Picture Entry $48.05
The Big Picture's Updated
The Big Picture PGR $95+ 12 Month Target
PGR has gone on a crazy run this year and has started to flag exactly how we would like to see it, I started a feeler position to keep an eye on it, and will look to buy through 74.
One of the free members, actually sent this in as a short idea, flipped his short entry to my stop and his buy cover to my add and it is working nicely so far. Can add 73, real add will be 74.
Big Picture Target $95+
Big Picture Entry $74.05
The Big Picture INXN $90+ 12 Month Target
Back in 2018 you might remember trading INXN however it just was not ready, and we moved on, now its right back to this level and looking better than ever on even tighter risk.
Added through the 69 high, with a stop at 67.
Big Picture Target $90+
Big Picture Entry $67.05
The Big Picture MTCH $70+ 12 Month Target
This 60 level is looking great for a nice 4th times a charm vs 52 for now.
Still setting up perfectly.
Big Picture Target $70+
Big Picture Entry $60.05
The Big Picture EXPD $73+ 12 Month Target
EXPD has been setting up similar to FIS, defined level of resistance, has attempted the level over 3 times and is showing us a nice clean out vs 73.
Added through the 79 high with a full stop below 77.
Big Picture Target $95+
Big Picture Entry $78.05
The Big Picture CDNS $54+ 12 Month Target
So we are shifting gears away from the large cap names and taking a look at CDNS that has been setting up through this 47 level since July. Now this is by no means a cake walk 47 buy as it has ran basically in a straight line up from 40. Will start light and if it wants to blast 47 and never look back even better, if it wants to start setting out we should have not problem adding in time.
Leave the stop in and let it do the heavy lifting!
Big Picture Target of $54 exceeded
Trading Experts Miami/Bimini Bahamas
Two more weeks until we will be meeting up in Miami than heading to Bimini!