The Big Picture Outline
- Financial Planning
- Broad Market Outlook
- Macro Rotation
- Sector Rotation
- Sub Sector Rotation
- New Big Picture Idea
- Updated Big Picture Idea's
Take any hundred people at the start of their working careers and follow them for 40 years until they reach retirement age, and here's what you'll find, according to the Social Security Administration (I did not pull these numbers out of thin air):
1 will be wealthy, 4 will be financially secure, 5 will continue to work because they need to, 36 will have already died, and 54 will be dead broke living off Social Security and help from family. 5% are successful while 95% are unsuccessful. Care to guess which group had financial planning?
Clients pay thousands of dollars a year to have a financial plan run for them at my investment bank, we include this benefit to you for no cost. If you would like us to put a plan together for you and your family so you can get closer to being in the 5%, shoot me a message on GroupMe saying "planning" and we will show you the simple steps to get you to your first your first million.
Broad Market Outlook
Everywhere we look, the grass looks greener, Tech looks great, Large caps are near highs, S&P near highs, China trading as if the trade deal is done, India near highs, Russia flagging nicely, even the FED is pulling back there stance on rising rates with whispers of possible rate cuts. Now when we see global markets all trading in tandem with one another, that is usually a good sign that the overall trend will continue. We should expect to tickle new highs, its pretty much a lay up at this point.
Now there are two main paths to plan for after we tickle new highs, one path is similar to how VGT has traded, it ran up, retested the prior high, was meet with sellers, pulled back a bit and came right back and ripped through to new highs. If we get past this Trade Deal nonsense, we should expect the market to follow a similar path (retest, minor pull back, than break higher).
The other possibility is that we tickle/flush new highs just long enough to trap the suckers who ran for the exits at the start of the year, we are flirted with the trade deal being done, and we find out, its not, and the market drifts back into the huge range we have been in.
Either outcome, we should be licking our chops at, if we grind higher, we sit on stock and ride the tail winds of the market, if the market loses it footing, we get stopped out, hang on the side lines for a bit, and come back and buy the same leaders on sale again.
Macro Rotation Outlook
Nasdaq 1% away from ATH
S&P 500 1% away from ATH
Dow Jones within reach of ATH
Mid Caps lagging the large caps
Small Caps lagging behind large and mid caps
China breaking the base
Japan eye on the 56 break
Europe working its way higher
Emerging Markets working its way higher
India setting up under 36
Russia flagging perfectly under 21.50
Bonds starting to settle out after recent run
10 Year at 2.5%
Oil still inching higher out of base
A mere 1% away from all time highs, that is seriously impressive, most were running for the exits a few months ago, expect this crowd to try to pile in.
When we retest a prior high, what tends to happen? Do buyers or sellers tend to come in?
Looking at these charts, this V bottoms were something from the history books as we work our way back to the prior highs.
MDY Mid Cap Stocks
Just give them time and we will be retesting those highs.
IWM Small Caps
We can see how the larger caps have taken the lead during this prior rocky time, as the mid and small caps are trying to play catch up.
Once EWJ can break 56, we should see it be able to work its ways back up to 61.
VGK Europe ETF
As expected, after the initial pop of the downtrend break it settled out, held 53 and can continue to work its way higher.
VWO Emerging Markets
The Emerging Markets are continue to work itself higher after taking out that prior pivot high. Just need to give it time to work its way back to those prior highs.
India has started to flag out after that monster move under 36.
Russia is starting to look better and better as it continues to flag under 21.50
BND Bond Market
Bonds started to pull back a bit after the dip in rates.
10 Year Treasury Note Yielding 2.50%
People in finance love to add 1 extra layer to confuse everyday people, look at any financial newspaper, and the yields below will be all out of order, just enough to make you scratch your head.
To keep it simple, below they are in order from shortest to longest maturity, in simplest terms, if you were loaning money to a friend for a week or another friend for a year, which would you charge more? The longer loan, same goes for the market, when you are charging more for a shorter term loan that shows your lack of confidence in the market. With the 3 month yield more than the 2 and 5 year, not the best sign.
3 Month Treasury 2.39 %(Should be lower than the rest)
2 Year Treasury 2.34% (Should be lower than the rest)
5 Year Treasury 2.30%
10 Year Treasury 2.50%
30 Year Treasury 2.90%
Oil still trying to inch higher and higher and work its way back to those prior highs.
Energy is working it way back towards that 92 level which looks good for a DCA.
Industrial's are right back up to that 144 level however it seems like it might need some time to settle out before breaking through that level.
After 2 long years, a year of which I have been sitting in this sucker, it is finally breaking out of this downtrend. Time to sit on our hands as it continues this long grind back to prior highs.
Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
Materials finally breaking out of this base with not much in its way until 138.
VCR Consumer Discretionary
Discretionary's showing us that it wants to retest those prior highs.
Financials like Energy are showing us that it wants to take out this 68 level in time.
Leave that 84 stop in and let the REIT's work higher.
Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
VDC Consumer Staples
In time that 146 will be a solid DCA, for now it needs time to digest this hard V bottom.
Still setting up for the textbook break.
Utilities are trying to stay above this 126 area and tickle new highs, however with the market "looking" safe again, it will be hard for these guys to keep up the move they had.
Sub Sector Rotation
IBB 106 stop
IBB Bio Tech
Leave that 106 stop in and let it work.
The New Big Picture Set Up
The Big Picture PGR $95+ 12 Month Target
PGR has gone on a crazy run this year and has started to flag exactly how we would like to see it, I started a feeler position to keep an eye on it, and will look to buy through 74.
Big Picture Target $95+
Big Picture Entry $74.05
The Big Picture's Updated
The Big Picture INXN $90+ 12 Month Target
Back in 2018 you might remember trading INXN however it just was not ready, and we moved on, now its right back to this level and looking better than ever on even tighter risk.
With INXN working its way back to only retesting those prior highs, we have to expect sellers to come in, since our price is not the best, a breakeven stop will do just fine for now.
Big Picture Target $90+
Big Picture Entry $67.05
The Big Picture MTCH $70+ 12 Month Target
This 60 level is looking great for a nice 4th times a charm vs 52 for now.
Great to see a higher low, just need to be ready to buy that 70 break.
Big Picture Target $70+
Big Picture Entry $60.05
The Big Picture EXPD $73+ 12 Month Target
EXPD has been setting up similar to FIS, defined level of resistance, has attempted the level over 3 times and is showing us a nice clean out vs 73.
EXPD started to breakout and tickle new highs however it does not seem quite just ready yet, for now a stop below Fridays low of 77 will do just fine.
Big Picture Target $95+
Big Picture Entry $78.05
The Big Picture CDNS $54+ 12 Month Target
So we are shifting gears away from the large cap names and taking a look at CDNS that has been setting up through this 47 level since July. Now this is by no means a cake walk 47 buy as it has ran basically in a straight line up from 40. Will start light and if it wants to blast 47 and never look back even better, if it wants to start setting out we should have not problem adding in time.
Leave the stop in and let it do the heavy lifting!
Big Picture Target of $54 exceeded
Trading Experts Miami/Bimini Bahamas
The game plan will look something like this, we will fly into Miami on Thursday spend the night in south beach, and from there on Friday morning we hope on a ferry to Bimini!
Once we get there we will have an ocean front house available for the weekend where we can travel around and check out the sites as well as swimming with the sharks if you have the balls.
So far the trip is Capt Joe, Heaven, Heaven's gf, Kriss, Skender and myself. There is room for 2 more for this quick weekend trip! The dates are April 25th to the 28th, if you are interested in joining let me know!