The Big Picture Outline
- Financial Planning
- Broad Market Outlook
- Macro Rotation
- Sector Rotation
- Sub Sector Rotation
- New Big Picture Idea
- Updated Big Picture Idea's
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Financial Planning
Take any hundred people at the start of their working careers and follow them for 40 years until they reach retirement age, and here's what you'll find, according to the Social Security Administration (I did not pull these numbers out of thin air): 1 will be wealthy, 4 will be financially secure, 5 will continue to work because they need to, 36 will have already died, and 54 will be dead broke living off Social Security and help from family. 5% are successful while 95% are unsuccessful. Care to guess which group had financial planning?
People pay up to $5,000 a year to have a financial plan run for them at my investment bank, we include this benefit to you for no cost. If you would like us to put a plan together for you so you can get closer to being in the 5%, shoot me a message on GroupMe.
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Broad Market Outlook
The week of DOJI's did not help giving us much action and can be frustrating for most. Our old desk manager use to say that new traders expect to make money 12 out or 12 months a year, while professional traders know they will only make real money 3 out of 12 months out of the year. Now the professional trader doesn't know which 3 months will be fire while the rest will be single and doubles. What we know now however was the home run 3 months are behind us. The market has been starting to try and consolidate a move that we have not seen in over a decade. Regarding retesting highs, its not a matter of "if" and more of "when" as we are a mere chip shot away from highs.
This is a trading environment that is designed to take back those easy profits, don't. Be lighter, be more patience, zoom out and look for real set ups because they are out there. Learn from your mistakes, reviewing some of my own trades, BP wise CDNS I should still be in, so with EXPD setting up the same, I will make sure to be more patient and let the first pull back form before upping my stop. When trading inside the range like VZ and CSCO, when its back up to resistance for the 9th time I will make sure to take it again, similar to AAP 172 that has been setting up for 4 years however not the easiest buy that we are use to.
This is a time to reflect on prior trades, review prior stock charts as INXN was a name we traded a year ago and it is right back to the same level with an even better set up. This is without a doubt a less is more environment, when you catch the golden ticket, sit on it and let it do the heavily lifting because a majority of the setups are mirages. Be selective, be patience, buy on the way up and avoid the sugar high of chasing the quick buck.
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Macro Rotation Outlook
Cheat Sheet
Nasdaq 7200 line in the sand
S&P 500 277 line in the sand
Dow Jones flagging
Mid Caps flagging
Small Caps flagging
China 102 resistance
Japan flagging
Europe needs to base
Emerging Markets basing
India digesting move
Russia flagging
10 Year slightly inverted
Bond breaking out
USD flagging
Oil inching higher
Nasdaq
At this point its not a matter of if, but when we will retest highs, as we continue to stay above 7200, its a chip shot to retest 7700.
SPY
The SPY is starting to get some legs as we can see 277 has been holding, we can see the prior pivot of 272 that held, as we continue to grind higher those will be key areas to keep this up move going higher.
Dow Jones
The large caps still flagging nicely in this 10 point range, and look the best to retest those highs first among the big dogs.
MDY Mid Cap Stocks
Mid caps still behind a bit however flagging nicely under this major pivot high, back in December we were drooling over this break (and it didn't go) now its back and we don't want to buy it, and guess what it will probably go.
IWM Small Caps
Small caps were the leader of the pack all 2018 however were starting to see they are losing there steam to keep up, still looks great in time.
GXC China
That 82 double bottom held up like a beast, now its only a matter of time before we can clear this 102.
EWJ Japan
Japan still flagging however not doing much to lose sleep over.
VGK Europe ETF
Back under the downtrend line, just needs some time to start basing out.
VWO Emerging Markets
Emerging markets showing us what is most likely in store for Europe, after the light break, it pulls back and starts to base before making its next push on its way back to highs.
INDA India
For how wild the India market trades as a whole, cannot image how crazy there individual names must trade.
RSX Russia
Russia still flagging like a beast.
10 Year Treasury Note Yielding 2.41%
People in finance love to add 1 extra layer to confuse everyday people, look at any financial newspaper, and the yields below will be all out of order, just enough to make you scratch your head.
To keep it simple, below they are in order from shortest to longest maturity, in simplest terms, if you were loaning money to a friend for a week or another friend for a year, which would you charge more? The longer loan, same goes for the market, when you are charging more for a shorter term loan that shows your lack of confidence in the market. With the 3 month yield more than the 2 and 5 year, not the best sign.
3 Month Treasury 2.38% (Should be lower than the rest)
2 Year Treasury 2.26%
5 Year Treasury 2.35%
10 Year Treasury 2.41%
30 Year Treasury 2.81%
BND Bond Market
Looks like a monster breakout right? That move was a $1 move, which reminds you why we trade stocks.
USD
Still flagging.
OIL
Oil still trying to inch higher and higher.
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VDE Energy
Starting to flag out a bit under this 92 level, also might need a good shakeout before its really going to break that level.
VIS Industrial
Settling out so it can work its way back through that 144 in time.
VOX Telecom
Telecom just started to tickle that downtrend, above 88 will be the key spot.
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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
VAW Materials
That 126 in time looks good to eventually make its way back to those prior highs in 2018.
VCR Consumer Discretionary
Poking up through this pivot however not much follow through just yet.
VFH Financials
That 68 in time looks great.
VNQ REIT
With the FED soft on rates, REITs should continue to benefit.
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Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
VDC Consumer Staples
Staples inching back to those prior highs, should see new highs soon, however would not expect a most break as it will only be a retest.
VHT Healthcare
Chart wise looks A+ in time on that break.
VPU Utilities
Took out those highs and leaving the stop in to let it work.
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Sub Sector Rotation
Cheat Sheet
IBB 106 stop
IBB Bio Tech
Leave that 106 stop in and let it work.
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The New Big Picture Set Up
The Big Picture INXN $90+ 12 Month Target
Back in 2018 you might remember trading INXN however it just was not ready, and we moved on, now its right back to this level and looking better than ever on even tighter risk.
Big Picture Target $90+
Big Picture Entry $67.05
Stop $63.89
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The Big Picture's Updated
The Big Picture MTCH $70+ 12 Month Target
This 60 level is looking great for a nice 4th times a charm vs 52 for now.
Great to see a higher low, just need to be ready to buy that 70 break.
Big Picture Target $70+
Big Picture Entry $60.05
Stop $51.89
The Big Picture EXPD $73+ 12 Month Target
EXPD has been setting up similar to FIS, defined level of resistance, has attempted the level over 3 times and is showing us a nice clean out vs 73.
Picked up a feller in EXPD through 75 and will be ready to buy 78 when it gets up there.
Big Picture Target $95+
Big Picture Entry $78.05
Stop $72.89
The Big Picture CDNS $54+ 12 Month Target
So we are shifting gears away from the large cap names and taking a look at CDNS that has been setting up through this 47 level since July. Now this is by no means a cake walk 47 buy as it has ran basically in a straight line up from 40. Will start light and if it wants to blast 47 and never look back even better, if it wants to start setting out we should have not problem adding in time.
Leave the stop in and let it do the heavy lifting!
Big Picture Target of $54 exceeded
Stop $59.89
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Trading Experts Miami/Bimini Bahamas
The game plan will look something like this, we will fly into Miami on Thursday spend the night in south beach, and from there on Friday morning we hope on a ferry to Bimini!
Once we get there we will have an ocean front house available for the weekend where we can travel around and check out the sites as well as swimming with the sharks if you have the balls.
So far the trip is Capt Joe, Heaven, Heaven's gf, Kriss, and myself. There is room for 3 more for this quick weekend trip! The dates are April 25th to the 28th, if you are interested in joining let me know!
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