The Big Picture Outline
- New Business
- Broad Market Outlook
- Macro Rotation
- Sector Rotation
- Sub Sector Rotation
- New Big Picture Idea
- Updated Big Picture Idea's
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New Business
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Broad Market Outlook
Lets state the obvious, Friday sucked, no way around it, a sea of red everywhere other than (you already know the answer) utilities. Now it is easy to have the pity party about a down day like Friday, however we are quick to forget the gifts that the market has given us in 2019.
Friday was a huge sign for us to take our feet off the peddle. We have probably said this some many times that you can repeat it verbatim, the market is not designed to go up everyday. The Nasdaq for example is up 22% in the first 90 days of the year, with no real levels of support, same for virtually any major market. Going through them all, and the major sectors only Consumer Staples really had support that could hold up the move it had.
What goes up, does come down, you and I don't want it because we are long bias. We have to be honest with ourselves and realize the market needs to cause some pain after the party it just gave us.
Be light, given the market some time, sure it will snap around where the recent low will look like the bottom however look back and try to find a pull back that lasted 1 day, we should be expecting some red in the waters. The "h"s are just getting started, so lets be ready to take advantage when the dust settles.
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Macro Rotation Outlook
Cheat Sheet
Nasdaq 7000 support
S&P 500 272 support
Dow Jones h'ing over
Mid Caps h'ing over
Small Caps h'ing over
China range bound
Japan avoiding
Europe needs time
Emerging Markets 43 in time
India 36 resistance
Russia flagging 21.55
10 Year near lows
Bond breaking out
USD flagging
Oil 68 resistance
Nasdaq
200 points shy of retesting highs and we got a little blood in the waters, however we forget the monster V bottom that we have not seen in years.
SPY
Remember last week when we mentioned how the market likes to trick most people, breaking 280 just long enough for most to think it was smooth sailings back to high was the perfect set up to do the complete opposite.
Dow Jones
Dow starting to "h" over however just look at this run off longs, impressive.
MDY Mid Cap Stocks
Showing us the"h" wants to roll lower.
IWM Small Caps
Already showing us the "h"ing over effect.
GXC China
Still in a wide 20 point range, glad that we took some profits last week.
EWJ Japan
Still flagging down here, nothing to really lose sleep over.
VGK Europe ETF
Europe started to poke its head out of the break and as usually coming back inside which we have seen time and time again, we just need to keep an eye out for the sneaky second leg.
VWO Emerging Markets
Broke just enough to trap people long, 43 is still a solid area in time.
INDA India
Crazy run up into 36, after near vertical runs we have to expect a pull back.
RSX Russia
Still flagging and held that 21.55 to the penny.
10 Year Treasury Note Yielding 2.46%
10 year heading to a new 52 week low.
10 year Treasury Note 2.46% (higher = good)
2 year Treasury Note 2.31%
BND Bond Market
With rates near lows, bond prices are ticking up.
USD
The dollar still flagging, remember we want a weak dollar.
OIL
68 a barrel seems to be the new level of resistance forming.
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VDE Energy
Better to be lucky than good with that sell earlier in the week, 82 is the area to keep an eye on to hold.
VIS Industrial
Starting to "h" over.
VOX Telecom
Tickling the downtrend break that has been forming for 2 years.
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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
VAW Materials
Got a lucky sell near the 126 highs, really no support till 112.
VCR Consumer Discretionary
172 seller, 154 buyer, wide range.
VFH Financials
68 seller there and the buyer at 60, wide range.
VNQ REIT
With rates low, we should continue to see REIT's inch higher.
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Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
VDC Consumer Staples
Tighter flag between 143 and 139, can just as easily flush that support.
VHT Healthcare
Textbook chart pattern setting up just needs time.
VPU Utilities
126 stop in and letting it work.
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Sub Sector Rotation
Cheat Sheet
IBB 106 break soon
IBB Bio Tech
Seems like we are about to see a 106 break soon.
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The New Big Picture Set Up
The Big Picture MTCH $70+ 12 Month Target
This 60 level is looking great for a nice 4th times a charm vs 52 for now.
Big Picture Target $70+
Big Picture Entry $60.05
Stop $51.89
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The Big Picture's Updated
The Big Picture EXPD $73+ 12 Month Target
EXPD has been setting up similar to FIS, defined level of resistance, has attempted the level over 3 times and is showing us a nice clean out vs 73.
Big Picture Target $95+
Big Picture Entry $78.05
Stop $72.89
The Big Picture CDNS $54+ 12 Month Target
So we are shifting gears away from the large cap names and taking a look at CDNS that has been setting up through this 47 level since July. Now this is by no means a cake walk 47 buy as it has ran basically in a straight line up from 40. Will start light and if it wants to blast 47 and never look back even better, if it wants to start setting out we should have not problem adding in time.
Set that $59.89 stop and let it work.
Big Picture Target of $54 exceeded
Stop $59.89
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Trading Experts Miami/Bimini Bahamas
The game plan will look something like this, we will fly into Miami on Thursday spend the night in south beach, and from there on Friday morning we will hope in Capt. Joe boat and leave Miami and charter his boat over to Bimini Bahamas!
Once we get there we will have an ocean front house available for the weekend where we can travel around and check out the sites as well as swimming with the sharks if you have the balls.
This trip will be a tight crew of Capt Joe, myself and only 6 Alpha members who will be coming to Bimini.
If you are interesting in coming on this once in a life time adventure let me know as it will be first come first serve on the 6 Alpha's that will be attending!
Dates will be a weekend in April 25th to the 28th, if you are interested shoot me a PM on Group Me.
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