The Big Picture Outline
- New Business
- Broad Market Outlook
- Macro Rotation
- Sector Rotation
- Sub Sector Rotation
- New Big Picture Idea
- Updated Big Picture Idea's
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New Business
Trading Experts App - resubmitted for approval (fingers crossed)
Vermont Snowboarding Trip 1/23rd-27th (this week!)
Turks and Caicos Trip 3/21st-24th
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Broad Market Outlook
What a start to 2019, the end of 2018 most had there heads in the sand as most felt the world was ending. We actually had our first member ever quit using the excuse of market performance on, I kid you not Dec 24th (the dead low). Since then the markets have been on fire, up 13-15% off the lows in the last two weeks. You guys have been crushing it, from the PnL's posted there has been over $112,000+ made in the last week which puts us over 2% towards our goal of making $5mil+ this year. If we can keep up the $60,000 a week in profits we will exceed our goal!
You have noticed how two, three, four weeks ago it was hard to find any set up worth taking, now as the market has bounced off its lows we are started to see more set ups. I have started to shift a bit more defensively from a ETF standpoint. When you are up 13% in the SPY in 2 weeks that is usually not the norm, stock wise it tends to be a bit of a different tune as they tend to go much farther than a basket of 500 stocks can go.
The tune a few weeks ago was the market will only go lower, and today its the opposite that we can go higher. When that's the overall case, we know what usually happens (the opposite). Is the market going to grind up to 280 next week or crash back to lows is anyone's guess. All we know is when the market turns we will get stopped out. If the market wants to grind higher, even better.
Broadly for the year ahead we will try to shy away from Europe, will keep an eye and look to add to the Emerging Markets as they are basing. Expect to see 2 rate hikes this year (June+Dec), expect to be in this range bound market (SPY 230-300) which is a wide 30% range, great for the active trader. Still keep in the back of our minds that a retest of the December lows is still very likely and healthy. As we have seen a safe place to hide when things get messy is always cash as well as the large cap names.
From Ben G
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Macro Rotation Outlook
Cheat Sheet
Nasdaq 6600 stop
S&P 500 260 stop
Dow Jones 244 stop
Mid Caps 327 stop
Small Caps 144 stop
China Double Bottom Holding
Japan Avoiding
Europe Avoiding
Emerging Markets Basing 37-40
India 33 DCA
Russia Avoiding
10 Year 2.78%
Bond sub 80 level
USD range bound
Oil basing under 64
Nasdaq
SPY
So far the SPY has snapped back 14% off lows, after booking some profits, my stop for the rest is vs 260 as the market tries to work its way back to to 280. A mere 9% away from all time highs, weird thought the world was going to end 2 weeks ago?
Dow Jones
Large caps with a similar tune as the SPY up 14% off lows as its aiming for a prior area of resistance.
MDY Mid Cap Stocks
2 weeks of straight down pain followed by 2 weeks of straight gains, who would have known.
IWM Small Caps
Small caps aiming to run into a similar area as the Dow, booked profits on the way up and have a stop in vs 144 for the rest.
GXC China
China holding this double bottom so far, time will tell if it can break this down trend.
EWJ Japan
In a wide 20% range, still avoiding for now.
VGK Europe ETF
VWO Emerging Markets
The emerging markets of a good example of being a few months ahead of Europe, as they got out of the downtrend and now are starting to base between 37 to 40.
INDA India
India was a wild one in the last quarter of 2018, recently its started to tighten up,so time will tell if this 33 will be a spot worthy of a buy.
RSX Russia
Russia still in a decent range after missing the 19 buy, putting this on the back burner until a better set up presents itself.
10 Year Treasury Note Yielding 2.78%
We started to get the first warning sign of an inverted yield curve (shorter term rates yielding more than longer term rates). Most people panic at this which is something to take note of. For now the 10 year is still yielding more than the 2 year so we are still good.
10 year Treasury Note 2.78% (higher = good)
2 year Treasury Note 2.61%
BND Bond Market
BND still working its way towards the 80 level.
USD
The dollar found a pivot at 95 as it continues to trade in a tight range.
OIL
Oil started to get some legs after the disaster into the end of 2018, for now 64 will be a spot however this is only the retest and as we know we want to look for 3rd times a charm.
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Sector Rotation
Key points
- For any of the major markets or sectors, we are parking these positions in a taxable account looking to hold for a year plus (Long Term Capital gains)
- Meaning we are willing to hold positions against us as overall sectors and markets are much less volatile than individual names.
- We are buying or adding (dollar cost averaging) when there are actionable set ups.
- We are selling for either profit or getting out for breakeven if better opportunities arise elsewhere in other sectors.
- If you plan to add this strategy to your portfolio please discuss it will me so we can make sure you are not parking these ETF's in retirement accounts locking up tax deferred capital that can be put to better use in individual stocks.
Cheat Sheet
VGT 172 Stop
VDE 82 Stop
VIS 130 Stop
VOX Avoiding
VAW 112 Stop
VCR 162 Stop
VFH 64 Stop
VNQ took profits
VDC 134 Stop
VHT 165 Stop
VPU Avoiding
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Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
VGT Tech
Stop below 172.
VDE Energy
Stop below 82 with a lot of open real estate to cover.
VIS Industrial
Could give some vs 125, keeping some tight vs 130.
VOX Telecom
Like Europe still in this overall downtrend than will need time to break.
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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
VAW Materials
Stop vs 112, time will tell if it can retest the 125 area before testing that low.
VCR Consumer Discretionary
Up a cool 20 points, time for a tight stop vs 162.
VFH Financials
Banks about 3 points away from a prior pivot high, keeping the stop tight for the rest vs 64.
VNQ REIT
12 point range all year, locked in 6 points in 2 weeks, good trade.
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Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
VDC Consumer Staples
Has some room to run however keeping the risk tight vs 134.
VHT Healthcare
Has about another 10+ points to run, upping the stop vs 165.
VPU Utilities
Still a snooze fest, avoiding for now.
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Longer Term Financial Planning
Did you start maxing out your IRA this year? The new limit is $6,000. You also have until April 15th to max out 2018.
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Sub Sector Rotation
Cheat Sheet
IBB 106 Stop
IBB Bio Tech
IBB is working its way back toward this 112 level, for now giving it some room vs 106.
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The New Big Picture Set Up
The Big Picture CDNS $56+ 12 Month Target
So we are shifting gears away from the large cap names and taking a look at CDNS that has been setting up through this 47 level since July. Now this is by no means a cake walk 47 buy as it has ran basically in a straight line up from 40. Will start light and if it wants to blast 47 and never look back even better, if it wants to start setting out we should have not problem adding in time.
Big Picture Target $56+
Big Picture Entry $47.05
Stop $39.89
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The Big Picture's Updated
The Big Picture PG $118+ 12 Month Target
We took the PG in early December however it just wasn't ready, market got smoked however you would have a hard time knowing if all you owned was PG. If you bought the dead high at worse you were down 9% for all of an hour during this recent bear market. If that isn't relative strength I don't know what is. $94 will be the spot to DCA.
PG just hanging out this week flagging in front of that 94 level.
Big Picture Target $118+
Big Picture Entry $94.05
Stop $89.89
The Big Picture INTC $57+ 12 Month Target
For how rocky the markets have been, INTC is tightly flagging in this $3 range, Intel is the lower beta tech, old dog, however when the new dogs are getting sent to the pound, someones the old companion is just what we need. Have been trading in and around this range to get a feel for it. Eventually this 49 level should push though to retest highs and works itself down to the road to take that out (3rd times a charm).
We were a few cents from getting stopped out on Thursday, for now that seems to be the right out as INTC works its way back to the 50 level. Big Picture Target $57+
Big Picture Entry $50.05
Stop $47.89
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Trading Experts NYC Meet Up
Awesome to see such a big turn out last night with over 20 members showing up throughout the night bringing along wife's, girlfriends and friends. Great catching up with everyone and we can't wait to see you guys at the East Coast snowboarding trip in January!
Trading Experts Atlanta Racing Trip
Was great to catch up with Rob and Mr Moon down in ATL this past weekend. Racing these Porsche's on a private track helped reinforced how much of dumb money I have been all these years whipping my Aston around.
Trading Experts Vermont Snowboarding Trip
Trading Experts Turks and Caicos Trip
For our first beach trip of the year we will be heading back to Turks and Caicos, the last trip was too much fun and the beaches were the best that we have seen. We will be renting an ocean front villa, we will be heading out to the sunken ship and we have a few other tricks up our sleeves.
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