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Financial Planning
Take any hundred people at the start of their working careers and follow them for 40 years until they reach retirement age, and here's what you'll find, according to the Social Security Administration:
1 will be wealthy, 4 will be financially secure, 5 will continue to work because they need to, 36 will have already died, and 54 will be broke living off Social Security and help from family. 5% are successful while 95% are unsuccessful. Care to guess which group had financial planning?
Clients pay thousands of dollars a year to have a financial plan run for them at my investment bank, we include this benefit to you for no cost. If you would like us to put a plan together for you and your family so you can get closer to being in the 5%, shoot me a message on GroupMe saying "planning" and we will show you the simple steps to get you to your first your first million.
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Broad Market Outlook
We saw this past week as the major markets ran into prior resistance and as a group we did a great job being full aware of what happens during a retest.
After the retest what usually follows?
A pullback, the market rises and it falls, so as we did a great job being aware of the retest, lets not be wildly shocked if the market pulls back this week.
We also saw how the market didn't care about the rate cut, most quite frankly don't even know if a rate cut is good or bad. A rate cut for the most part a psychological game. Lower interest rates help business that relay on debt to grow, a company that can grow faster, stock price should increase over time. However most companies don't feel or see a difference for months, sometimes even years.
The reason why its more psychological is for the simple fact that investors are not rational, they are reading the headline and following the crowd. You have half the people wanted to sell there stocks because of a rate cut and the other half wanting to buy more.
So does a rate cut help stocks? Yes, however it also send a message that the economy is not doing well enough on its own and needs a nudge. We saw this week, that the market did not care about the rate cut, as most (wanted) expected the market to rip higher on a cut.
We should be open minded to a pull back this week, and if not, lets find some solid bull flags to buy or bear flags to short!
From Ben G
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Goals Exceeded
Zachary Adams with a 25% overall return!
Big ups to Mason,Tien, Nikita and Alexei for completing your longer term financial plans!
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Dow Jones
After the retest comes the......
SPY
After the retest comes the....
Nasdaq
After the retest, comes the.....pull back.
MDY Mid Cap Stocks
Major markets take many attempts to break major levels, remember that.
IWM Small Caps
The broad markets take alot more attempts at resistance to really clear them as we can clearly see here.
BND Bond Market
Bond prices and Yield are inverse, one goes up the only goes down.
10 Year Treasury Note Yielding 1.76%
We saw how the 10 year rallied into the Fed announcement, now the rate cut can push us back into refinance area shortly. Remember a rate cut is saying that our economy is not doing that well, so as much as most cheer for the short term effects, and frankly its starting to become an old parlor trick already as the market didn't care about this cut, the longer term effects, will rear its head at some point.
10 Year Treasury 1.76%
30 Year Treasury 2.15%
OIL
Buy the rumor, sell the news in Oil, we did a sick job taking advantage.
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GXC China
10 point range in China, needs time.
VGK Europe
55/56 big areas of resistance in this base.
VWO Emerging Markets
Lower highs in the emerging markets, still needs time
INDA India
Screw it, I am going all in on bitcoin!
RSX Russia
Russia 3rd times a charm still acting as resistance, as we have said, the major markets need to hit resistance much more than a individual name
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If you have a friend that can benefit from what you have learned from Trading Experts, shoot me there contact info and we will see if we can help!
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Sector Rotation
Key points
- Best suited in a taxable account
- We are willing to hold positions against us as overall sectors and markets are much less volatile than individual names.
- We are buying or adding (dollar cost averaging) when there are actionable set ups.
- We are selling for either profit or getting out for break even if better opportunities arise elsewhere in other sectors.
- If you have more than $50k, we can set this model up for you
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Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
VGT Tech
This steep uptrend of support looks like it is ready to get cracked on of these days
VDE Energy
Buy the rumor, sell the news in the energy section
VIS Industrial
Got stopped out some VIS that I was trailing, next spot would be 145.
VOX Telecom
88 stop
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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
VAW Materials
Still flagging in a decent range with 130 still acting as resistance.
VCR Consumer Discretionary
Retest held, lets see how far she pulls back
VFH Financials
Was getting stopped out after the retest failed, if still in vs 70 is a spot
VNQ REIT
90 Stop
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Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
VDC Consumer Staples
154 Stop
VHT Healthcare
174 DCA
VPU Utilities
140 Stop
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Sub Sector Rotation
IBB Bio Tech
Out of all the sectors this IBB above 106 vs 100 looks like a decent spot to add.
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The New Big Picture Set Up
AMED
This AMED continues to flag under this $140, there are spots to add for the more tactical guy above $136, for now I will just wait for $140.
Target $180+
Entry $140.05
Stop $129.89
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Trading Experts Vegas Meet Up
We preach that learning from a professional speeds up the learning curve, which is true however we are on the other side of the conversation, being the student is very humbling and really shows how much you can improve with the proper guidance. Learning from Cedric just in those laps around the track from my first to last lap was a 25% improvement in time, lets forget about spinning off the track lol. Having him in the passenger seat saying full throttle, brake hard, coast, full throttle, punch it! Was a wild experience that had me shopping for spec racing Ferrari's all night.
Trading Experts Brooklyn Meet Up
We really appreciate everyone who made it out and it was amazing to see the progression from the last big meet up back in November at Beauty in Essex where most of the conversation revolved around future business ideas, fast forward 7 months later, pretty much everyone in the picture above is running some type of business that they started, from soccer coaching to sleeping pills to podcasting to accounting to video editing, selling on amazon and real estate!
Trading Experts NYC Meet Up
Such a great time and thanks to all the Alpha's that made it out to this weekends meet up in NYC! Shake and myself will be planning another NYC meet up next month!
Trading Experts Miami/Bimini Bahamas
All in all, the trip was a great success and having a smaller group it was much easier to move around, explore and share real experiences. As much fun as the huge group trips are, its hard to get those 1 on 1 connections with some much going on. I have not even began to think of the next trip however it will most likely be some time in the end of July. If you are interested in coming, let me know, as I would like to keep it like this trip of half a dozen members.
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After the retest comes the....
