Broad Market Outlook
As you may or may not know but I am currently bouncing around Italy for a few weeks spending as little time looking at the market as one could do. Focusing on the current views then the daily charts that we scan daily. Over my nearly 17 years investing and trading in the stock market, my only superstition is to avoid putting on risk while on vacation. Other then for the fact that there are such short spans of time to step away from work and our regular responsibilities that it seems almost silly or trivial to be checking stock quotes or hunting for wifi when one could simply take in the sites of the Amafi coast.
I have seen quite a few (American's) here on vacation with there families yet glued to a phone with an ear piece, often trying to ease drop, I can over here the useless "work" conversations that are of no importance yet feel important to these types of people who are addicted to work.
As much as we love running this business along with our passion for investing, there are moments to step back and smell the roses to keep the passion going. Without falling victim to the responsibilities of ones work that can turn into shackles.
Given that my superstition to avoid the market during vacations as in the past I have done so right before major macro events that often lead to downward moves, now that I do often putting risk on, the market often has impressive moves to the upside.
On Thursday the Senate passed the Debt Ceiling Pretend Crisis with ease, the high sight bias in us will now say that was obvious as they followed suit with the FEDs policy of just doing what they say they are going to do to keep the market happy. Don't forget how much capital those people in the senate have invested themselves. Thanks to there duty to us and there brokerage accounts, they signed the paper to increase the made up Debt Ceiling number, to give them another few summers where they have to save the world again for the 79th time.
We also had a great jobs report on Friday as the overall markets narrative of the recessionary story is changing into the bear market turns into a bull market as the basing stage continues to turn into a breakout market.
As this trend continues, expect to see more positive news about the market as the bad news tends to pile up during the break down and basing stages. While the positive news to help push the market tends to come as we enter the breakout stage that we are just getting started with.
If you would like to benefit from my superstition I will be away until the 15th so there are plenty of time for the market to climb higher to your benefit.
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Big Picture Set Up's
ADP continues to base out under this 220 area, after putting in some higher pivot lows at 200 and then a higher pivot low around 210 we can see the buyers setting up. It is only a matter of time before this name is ready to leave its basing stage and enter its breakout stage.
NTES continues to bull flag nicely under this 90 level, it is still a bit wide with the current pivot low at 80 but one to keep on the radar if it can give us a tighter entry through the breakout level with time.
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