Chipotlaway

I am probably one of thee most die hard CMG fan, easily visiting there locations once, twice a week for the past how many years. I've waited in line for 45 mins and more recently Ive been able to walk in like I own the place. Now I'm not here to talk about the fundamental or growth story of CMG. Just the Chart.  

At Trading Experts, the Chart tells the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. Earlier this year we were eyeing the $500 flag in CMG, even with a buy stop in through $500.01 however it never triggered which keep me out of a stock that slide 40% in the last 6 months (don't cheat the level folks). 

Now down here at $300 recently we have been getting a few inquires about the Quac Star, and when you start to get asked about a name a few dozen times a day, its usually not the best sign. So lets take a deeper look at why this $300 to us smells like a case of Chipotlaway

As you might be aware that most stocks respect figures (whole numbers), so when stocks reach $100, $200,$300, $400 even $1,000 like we've seen in Google and Amazon. They tend to become support or resistance purely psychological and nothing more. So after failing to break $500, sliding down to $400 only to roll over and drop to $300 a 40% drop in 6 months. A few buyers started to show there hand...

(side bar - it took 6 months for CMG to get cut in half, you had 180 days if you were long to get the fuck out, that's why we like these expensive names, cheap names could be a week and there cut in half)  

The first time buying $300, pure shot, random, luck and just like Buffet has been quoted 3 trillion times, buy when people are fearful, however this scary buy was only good for a 6% bounce if you were fucking perfect, 180 days of waiting to perfectly execute for a 6% chop? Fuck that my friend, I'm good. 

The second time down there into support, tends to be your best risk reward play, you have a defined out and if it works it should have a quick bounce, still not the game we play, however cant knock the double bottom play if that's what your into. This time though the added certainly of a prior low you only get a 5% bounce if you are a magician and catch lows and sell tops, do not pass go and collect $200. 

Now the 3rd time, sounding like a broken record, it gets back down there, its becoming so obvious right? Buy $300 sell the bounce? Wrong lets shake everyone out and make them chase, Mr Markets favorite past time. 

Now the 4th time, this is the key time that CMG showed its hand, just when the amount of texts, calls, dm's, and group chat messages started to fire off about the value buy. It comes back to $300 for the 4th time, it bounced a mere 4% in 3 days. No Quac and a water cup please! 

Lower highs and holding a define level of support ($300 figure), we call that a bear flag folks, we do not advise shorting, so CMG is simply an avoid until after this bear flag resolves or some major catalyst comes out and unless I've missed something on my last 100 visits to there locations I cant see how this growth story is going to pan out in there favor.