Big Picture Unload the Boat

Broad Market Outlook
What a week, the S&P 500 hit a record new all time high this year for the 50th+ time.
The market also put in a doji at highs at the major retest, the obvious sign of indecision as (smart) investors do not want to be buying the top tick. 
Now other then what we know about retests coupled with the obvious facts about doji's at highs. Our mind still tries to find excuses as to why this time is different, when in reality it rarely if ever is.
We saw some insane PnL numbers this week and even on Friday members putting up some of the fastest triple digit returns ever achieve in the Alpha Chat. 
Gina deserves a round of applause for buying this wild name under $16 locking it for a 700%+ gain in less then 16 trading hours. Someone has to buy the low and sell the high.  
As much as I would personally never touch this name (I would much rather holding SNAP and INTC into earnings and give back 20% and 10% respectfully..sarcastically speaking).
Hearing from those who were all in this wild name it was refreshing to hear most had a similar approach:
1. Knew it was a wild name
2. Limited there risk (buying small)
3. Took profits and got out quickly
They made there money and moved on, now this trade was a rule breaking trade from what we tend to avoid but ever once in a while a rule or two needs to be broken to achieve these wild returns. 
But we want to remember that continuously breaking a given rule tends to lead to costly new habits. 
If you find yourself trying to find reasons to buy SNAP after the gap down, or trying to sneak back into DWAC in the hope of another 1,000% run, or discounting retests and dojis at highs in your winners, the result is often giving back profits that often are much easier to just lock in instead of hoping for more.
As the old saying goes "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" 
With this doji at highs in the market and everything looking rosy, this is the time to tighten up, play defense and avoid drinking too much of the this time is different retesting kool aid. 

From Ben G



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Macro Rotation Outlook

Dow Jones
MDY Mid Caps 
IWM Small Caps

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Sector Rotation
Sensitive -  sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions. 

VGT Tech
VDE Energy 
VIS Industrial
VOX Telecom
"Don’t tell me what you think, just tell me what’s in your portfolio"
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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
VAW Materials
VCR Consumer Discretionary
VFH Financials
Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
VDC Consumer Staples
VHT Healthcare
IBB Bio Tech
VPU Utilities
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Big Picture Set Up
When we are in winners, our judgement can get cloudy when everything looks rosy yet we want to remember what is often the wise thing to do at a major retest?
Further more, if your friend asked you what to do when said stock was at the retest, formed 5 doji's at highs out of 8 days, with one of those days being bearish engulfing. Your obvious reply would be "take profits!" Might be wise to listen to your own friendly advice. 
With AMD up 22% in 2 weeks into the retest with a doji at highs, it seems to be the time to start looking to take some profits. 
This CERT has been flagging out under this $40 all year and for a recent IPO we want to be ready for this blue sky breakout when its ready to break that level.
After months of flagging through this $150 area, they took it away on earnings but now that it has pulled back into the flag we might have a sneaky buy back on our hands. 
This ELF has been setting up for nearly half a decade for a breakout up through the IPO highs of $32. 
As ETSY continues to inch towards the retest of all time highs, it will be time shortly to look to take some profits from our last rebalance area a few months ago. 
MDB still showing us a nice earnings flag up through $520 in time, with all these dojis at highs would not expect much out of it in the short term but one to keep on the radar. 
MMC continues to drift to new highs and for now we can see a clear pivot vs this $150 area for the last of this swing. 
With everyone expecting SNAP to continue gapping higher, they had to gap it down to screw and trap most. Which should not come to much of a surprise to us, as the collective opinions leading up to the report where only outcomes that were higher, this is a good reminder that just when we think someone has to do something. It often has to do the exact opposite. 
With this being one of my largest individual holdings gave back quite a bit of open PnL yet not much has changed. From a short term trading standpoint SNAP could not be more off then radar, below the 200 day with a big gap to fill, it will need plenty of time before it will be ready again. 
Traveling Experts

We have a few exciting experiences planned for the year ahead. We hope you find a trip that sparks your interest to come enjoy and network with other like minded members!  


4th Annual Vermont Snowboarding Trip Jan 20th-23rd

2nd Annual Blue Ridge Rally May 13th-15th

2nd Annual Long Beach Island June 15th to 19th


4th Annual Vermont Trip 


Video from the last snowboarding trip!

10 spots left, $100 deposit to hold your spot!


2nd Annual Blue Ridge Rally 


Video from the last rally!

4 spots left, $100 deposit to hold your spot!


2nd Annual Long Beach Island 

Video from the last beach week vacation!

10 spots left, $100 deposit to hold your spot!


Let me know if you'd like to learn more about any of our upcoming trips!
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