Big Picture The Great Retest

Broad Market Outlook
Ok, maybe the great retest is a bit dramatic but a solid reminder of what we need to do when the stocks we own start to retest those prior all time highs. 
As we have seen numerous times in the past, those retests are so obvious after the fact in stocks that we were not in. Yet when we are in them, we blindly overlook and discount them, resulting in giving our names too much room as the stock could not look any better chart wise. 
In one of my own trades this week, I discounted the retest, I saw a nice flag forming on tight risk and took it, only to obviously see the retest a mere dollar higher. 
As we scan most names or even look at names that we are in, most are following a similar pattern. 
Most names put in some type of high in the beginning of September, pulled back and are now working there way back to there respected high (broadly speaking in most names). 
AFRM is another example of a much better trade then the FRT example, since Shakes call out in the $60s and this name trading more then 100% higher. Everything about the chart looks perfect, almost everything, the only downside is this is right at the retest. 
We have seen names push through the retest area just a tad further as we see stops get run as names shakeout just a bit farther then most can handle. 
When we have this huge cushions in names (up 50% to 100%+) it can be easy to take your eye of these winners and say, it needs time. Yet these are often times to ring the register. 
How perfect did ROKU look as it climbed 80% back to retest its $480 prior highs?
Only for it to reverse the entire move back to support. 
These are those reminders when we have those massive winners or my tiny winner in FRT, as perfect as those retests look, we need to use this times to ring the register. 
When we retest that prior high in the SPY and the transitory positive news is plentiful look for spots to take profits. 
Don't worry, if you, like myself and anyone else on the street have no clue about the made up terms wall street uses to sound smart, transitory means not permanent. 
Just as our profits are not permanent until we ring the register. 

From Ben G




Macro Rotation Outlook

Dow Jones
MDY Mid Caps 

IWM Small Caps

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Sector Rotation
Sensitive -  sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions. 

VGT Tech
VDE Energy 
VIS Industrial
VOX Telecom

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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
VAW Materials
VCR Consumer Discretionary
VFH Financials

Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
VDC Consumer Staples
VHT Healthcare
IBB Bio Tech
VPU Utilities
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Big Picture Set Up
As most of you that have been in and trading this AFRM have done an amazing job since Shake called it out more then 100% ago in the $60's. Just when stocks look perfect at the retest are often when we take our eye off the ball to give it room, only for the stock to pull back the amount of room we give it. 
So far CBRE has ticked a new ATH however still very close to the prior ATH which would peg it as a retest. Keeping the risk tight for now. 
This CERT is setting up nicely after setting up a few times under this $40 level up through the IPO high, one that we do not want to miss but have to remember that the mindset of these IPO high set ups need plenty of time. Could be good to part at M1 if/when it wants to start breaking $40 again.  
As frustrating as this base has been in DIS as we have wanted this $180 base to break to retest the prior all time high. It is great for DIS stock in general, seems like it won't be breaking this base until earnings. 
REIT names have continued to flag with some breaking out, this ESS looked prime for a breakout but was just quite not ready just yet. One to keep on the radar for when it's ready. 
Funny how prior to getting in we can discount the retest until after the fact, $123 looked great in FRT until I got it only to see it hold the retest to the tee. Reminder to take profits at the retest. 
As much as we want this snap to break this flag, with earnings in a few days, we should not expect much out of this name until it reports. With that being said, if you are saying in your head "Snap has to beat and gap up" take your profits because when everyone is thinking that, the opposite tends to happen. 
Support buy working nicely in this VEEV, took some profits so far after the 2 day move it had, keeping the stop vs the PLOD for now. 
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