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Broad Market Outlook
As the market did an impressive job bouncing off lows and looking as if it was going to easily break up through 460 and climb to 480, the opposite seems to be the reality.
As we pull back into the lower area of this recent range (460 to 420), we have to remember that the likelihood of 420 holding this time around is much lower then when it held the time prior.
Other then for the obvious reason that the more times support is tested the more likely it is to break but also for the chart pattern that we can see forming on the daily chart. As a head and shoulders chart pattern is not a bullish one.
If we continue this pull back into that area, it seems there's 2 outcomes that I would be at the top of the list.
1. A shakeout into 420 and a reversal move back into the current overall range of 420 post shakeout area and the ATH of 480. That I tried to visually show below.
2. The head and shoulders pattern continues to the downside as we head back to the 400 psychological level of support that was not tested since it broke through. Which is an impressive feat if you think about it.
Sector wise, Energy is still leading the charge higher and if have been holding those names you should see higher prices throughout the rest of the year however getting in up here will most likely be a costly one.
Utilities, REITs and Financials all have great macro levels setting up and could be worth keeping on the radar as they pull in near there own major support levels.
Similar to how the SPY is trading and looking as if it wants to "h" lower, the Large, Mid and Small Caps all look the same, along with the Industrial's and Tech sector following in there foot steps.
While Telecom is giving us the biggest crystal ball of the future as it left its topping pattern and has been in a controls breakdown. Most of the names above seem to be in their own topping patterns.
As much as we want scenario 1, where we shake out the low and bounce higher, Telecom is telling us we can dream, but that isn't going to make it true.
As much as we want or try to fight the markets action after the rug gets pulled, those are those once in a few year buying opportunity. On the active side, pickings are slim but on the passive side, let those buy programs continue to do the heavy lifting for you!
From Ben G
SPY
Dow Jones
Nasdaq
Mid Caps
Small Caps
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Handbook Updates
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Sector Rotation
Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
Tech
Energy
Industrial
Telecom
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"Don’t tell me what you think, just tell me what’s in your portfolio"
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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
Materials
Consumer Discretionary
Financials
REIT
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Or the PnL?
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Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
Consumer Staples
Healthcare
Bio Tech
Utilities
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Big Picture Set Up
LMT
LMT has been battling with this 400 level going back to the pandemic, this time around it is trading in a much tighter range and maybe, just maybe, it will be ready in time to break up through 400 to retest the 440 prior all time high.
MU
MU retested the prior high of $98 recently and has since pulled back and is working its way back through that blue sky area in time. One that we do not want to miss when its ready to break through that area.
WSFS
WSFS has been setting up for quite some under $56, for now it is setting up with the out for $50 to keep on the radar when it wants to push up through that blue sky area.
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Traveling Experts
We have a few exciting experiences planned for the year ahead. We hope you find a trip that sparks your interest to come enjoy and network with other like minded members!
Dates:
2nd Annual Blue Ridge Rally May 13th to 15th
1st Annual Private Track Day June 9th
2nd Annual Long Beach Island June 15th to 19th
6th Annual Vermont Retreat Jan 19th to 23rd 2023
5th Annual Vermont Retreat
Video from this Vermont Retreat!
2nd Annual Blue Ridge Rally
Interested in racing down back country roads driving McLaren's, Porsches, Aston Martin's and more? Reserve Your Spot Today
1st Annual Private Track Day
We rented out a private race track in New York in June for exotic car racing and motorcycle racing! If you would like to learn more about this event let me know!
2nd Annual Long Beach Island
Video from the last beach week vacation!
If you would like to come soak up some sun at the beach this year with a handful of Trading Experts Alpha Members reserve your spot today!
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