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Broad Market Outlook
As the "recession" talks take over the topic of discussion anywhere more then 2 adults gather, most become aware of the obvious when its too late. Or if you are a government, you can just change the definition to find your agenda.
As most are telling each other about a recession that is coming that they cant explain until now as the meme's have covered your social media feed that basically everyone should know a recession is 2 quarters of falling GDP.
All this talk has little effect on us. As we always stick to the mantra of turning off the news and getting rid of the noise we continue to focus on what matters as the charts really do all the talking, not people opinions.
The 10 Year continues to follow the path of Energy as it has successfully broken support and continues to roll over as the FED continues to "talk" there book about more rate hikes, yet the market continues to price that in.
As we have mentioned in prior Big Pictures, the more the 10 year falls, the more of a boost the equity markets should get.
In a simple way, if you could borrow money for free, would you use it to invest? The answer is probably yes, if that same money to borrow cost 10% interest, would still take it? The answer is probably not, with businesses that question is the same. Cheap debt equals an easy way to grow if used properly, expensive debt even if used properly still can be dicey.
Make it cheap to borrow and GDP grows, make it more expensive to borrow and GDP shrinks. But don't worry, definitions and economics are open to change when fitting.
As the 10 year continues to fall chart wise, not opinion wise, the broad markets and sectors should continue to take the stairs as they climb back into the middle of the overall range and then eventually (imo) closer to end of year/2023, we will be back retesting the ATH's.
With that being said, most major markets and sectors are 3rd/4th day up and most heading directly into prior retests or major resistance areas. Just when everything looks rosy in the short term are often the times to ring the register.
Taking profits into next week after these extended moves most likely would be a wise one and then being patient for those 3-4 day pull backs before looking to get back in.
Don't come into Monday guns blazing, come in offering out ammo to the unprepared in exchange for cash.
From Bennett
SPY
Dow Jones
Nasdaq
Mid Caps
Small Caps
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Sector Rotation
Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
Tech
Energy
Industrial
Telecom
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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
Materials
Consumer Discretionary
Financials
REIT
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Tax Experts
We have reviewed quite a few tax returns so far and have yet to find one where we could not have added value.
We recently found a member who paid a tax penalty because his tax guy put he contributed $12,000 into his Roth when he only contributed the max. He paid a penalty for this persons mistake without being aware and his tax guy made up the most ridiculous excuse, it was just embarrassing.
What is the worst case of getting a 2nd opinion from someone who has successfully filed over 4,000 tax returns?
Let's have a second look at your tax return, if we can't find a way to save you taxes on this or next years return, we will give you a months membership free.
Worst case you get a free months membership!
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Defensive - sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
Consumer Staples
Healthcare
Bio Tech
Utilities
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Monday Group Calls
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Big Picture Set Up
BMBL
Bumble stumble lesson, often when our (insert) favorite stock misses earnings and gaps down to a new 52 week low (at said time), it can often seem like a bargain that you can sneak into as it turns around and runs back to highs, this is often what we dream up but the reality or should I say nightmare is that it can often take 3-4 quarters before a stock can make back the lost ground from a bad earnings report/gap down. This is a perfect example, after that gap down in end of 2021, almost a year later and it is still working its way back to those levels.
Remember if your favorite name gaps down big on earnings to new 52 week lows, come back in a year, its not worth the fight.
CRM
CRM has been basing out for a few months now after the tech wreck this year and once it starts to push up through this base, I will look to increase my allocation in this name using M1.
SGEN
We have been watching this SGEN flag for quite some time and it seems it may just be starting to get ready to break out of this shorter term bull flag that lines up with a much more macro downtrend. I have a buy stop up through 180 vs 173 for now.
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Traveling Experts
We have a few exciting experiences planned for the year ahead. We hope you find a trip that sparks your interest to come enjoy and network with other like minded members!
Dates:
2nd Annual Private Track Day October 6th 2022
1st Annual Private Track Day
Our next private track day will be this October!
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