Broad Market Outlook
The pain trade continues as the major news this week was the FED raising interest rates half a percent setting interest rates off to tick a 15 year high as they try to curb the inflation problem in this country.
Since we retested the 410 resistance area in the S&P 500, the overall market has brokedn its uptrend that it was in as the pain trade started and has since continued as it continues to fade the move into resistance and drop into the first key area of support around 370.
In reality a retest or a new 52 week low would not seem to far out of the question as we have seen the rising wedge fail multiple times this year.
Each rising wedge the market has thrown at us has sent us to a new low, and as obvious as this outcome becomes and the thinking is eventually Mr Market has to trick us into doing something different that would benefit us, as we hope for the market to pivot and trade higher. It seems the status quo is probably more likely in the cards that we still see a new low as we head into the end of the year.
As the major market and most major sectors continue in there own pain trades, we are seeing most names come into and test or shake out there support areas.
This will be the time to keep an eye out for support buy backs as markets rarely climb and fall in a straight line as there are often plenty of mini rallys in between to hit some singles and doubles.
As the market was pulled in on Friday, I spotted two low risk support buy backs, one in ORLY risking 1.5% and another in MTSI where the risk was around 2%. Sitting in cash right now seems to be the smartest move, yet if you are itching to put captial to work keep an eye out for those support buy backs that are off most traders radar that are afriad to scan in weak markets.
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Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
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Defensive - sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
Big Picture Set Up
CQP setting up for a Blue Sky Breakout up through $62 in time, will need some time to set up but one to set an alert for and keep on the radar.
MTSI has pulled into support and found some buyers on Friday, will look to buy above the HOD with a stop vs the LOD for a support buy back to trade it within the current range of $64 to $72.
Got triggered in this ORLY as it came into support and held the $800 level, bought back up through the Doji HOD and have a stop in vs $800 for now. Will look for a bounce into the $840 area.
Got triggered into this WFRD late on Friday as it broke through $45 and closed right around the level, there might be a chase this week if it opens under the level to buy through the level. For now keeping the stop vs the LOD of $42.
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