Broad Market Outlook
Just closed out my worst swing trade in years, locking in a nearly 20% loss in a matter of a few days. From what looked to be a promising base breakout that quickly turned into a dumpster fire in a snap.
With mostly all failed trades, often the question we ask ourselves is "why did I not sell that (insert expletive) sooner?"
As traders we battle with should I sticking to the game plan or should I tweak it?
The game plan was to give it the proper room vs major support and let me tell you, that plan worked to an absolute tee.
This has not been the first time I have been down that much in a name in, and given my many laps around the block I have been able to work my way out of most positions for a gain in time.
Yet this was a fight where time was not on my side as I was losing too quickly from the start and was easier to simple take the hard lump and move on.
Given how this 20% loss could easily spiral into a 50% loss just as quickly as it became a 20% loss.
Now as annoyed as I am at this particular loss, its funny how losses feel so much worse then the joys of our winners.
My SNAP position is more then 20 times the size of the RCKT trade, yet that loss still stings more then the bigger winner gaining 20% in price in the same span.
After reviewing this trade and looking back through my journal and see hundreds of other failed trades with sub 1% losses, I am reminded why getting out of losing trades sooner then later in most cases is often the easier move.
As much as we want to make our trading systematic, we want to be as systematic with our winners, while being as open minded as possible to cut the losers sooner then later.
The goal will be to make it another 2 years before I have to see a failed trade at this percentage loss again and I hope the same holds true for you as well.
Just remember if your losing 1-5% in your failed trades realize that your worst losses are the average traders losses they could only hope for.
From Ben G
Macro Rotation Outlook
MDY Mid Caps
IWM Small Caps
Do You Have The Patience to Make It On the Leader Board?
Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
"Don’t tell me what you think, just tell me what’s in your portfolio"
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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
VCR Consumer Discretionary
Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
VDC Consumer Staples
IBB Bio Tech
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Big Picture Set Up
After a month with our stop vs $134, finally moved it up to $138 vs the more recent pivot low.
Has earnings very soon, could be an ORB candidate, will be ready to buy up through $200 when the time comes.
Worst trade in 2+ years, a big reminder of why its often so much easier to cut our losses soon then later.
With earnings out of the way, TXT continues to set up as the best chart out there, with a textbook entry up through $70 and two different areas to limit the downside.
We have a few exciting experiences planned for the year ahead. We hope you find a trip that sparks your interest to come enjoy and network with other like minded members!
4th Annual Vermont Snowboarding Trip Jan 20th-23rd
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4th Annual Vermont Snowboarding Trip
Video from the last snowboarding trip!
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2nd Annual Blue Ridge Rally
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2nd Annual Long Beach Island
Video from the last beach week vacation!
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