Broad Market Outlook
It may be hard to remember but there was once (and multiple times) that raising rates were so scary that it would send the market free falling, but as the story and spin changes with time, it has now become a savor to the market.
In time, long from now, the market will eventually become fearful when the FED decides to stop raising rates, as they will want what they no longer have, which is common with most things in life. As we are wired to become dissatisfied with whatever we have and satisfied by only what we do not. Inflation was great for the market and most investment classes but now we want something different.
The start of this year and up till recently was another great example of the market giving us exactly what we did not want, which was a breaking down market.
In between those few good weeks (last week for example) can cloud our memory of the last few harder months but now that we have made it through what seems to be the worst of it for this year. We might be walking out of the storm with a bit more useful experience.
There was a quote from a book recently (unrelated to the market) that said:
"pain and loss are inevitable and we should let go of trying to resist them"
Which could not be more true related to the markets, after enough time being in an easy market, we lose some of the benefits of experiencing healthy does of pain, and if we avoid experiencing it enough, we become disconnected from the realities of the markets. Pain does not mean that you are required to loss money but it can be just like the last few months where sitting and doing nothing could have felt painful day in and day out.
It was great to see that most have been able to truly stick to your sit out power as you may have lost some money which is completely understandable when the market is falling but for most, at least who I've been talking to, the overall losses pales in comparison to what the market dropped.
As we start to leave this breakdown stage and start to enter a new basing stage, we want to remember those periods of pain and loss so we avoid chasing names after a few sunny days.
When markets are trading in bases, we want to be thinking to sell on the 4th and 5th day up into resistance, not looking to buy when everything looks perfect.
Continue to stick to your game plans, continue to scan for the best charts and put risk on when the time is right for you.
Macro Rotation Outlook
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Big Picture Set Up
M1 Related - After a nearly 75% drop off highs, We are starting to see a few signs that a bottom may just be in BABA. After 5 bear flags over the last year, the last most obvious bear flag down through $100 seems to have been the last one to take advantage of. We saw 5X the average weekly volume this week. Now this name still has a lot of work to do and it wont just be a straight shot back to highs, however it does seem the worst is behind it in the short term.
CIVI still flagging nicely under this 59/60 area with a clearly defined pivot low at 52.
M1 Related - CRM is another good example of why we want to keep buying on the way up (10% allocation), take profits and lower allocation (from 10% to 5%) and now that it is putting in higher pivot lows, start to increase that 5% back up to 6,7,8, etc with time. Trading the broad range of the name.
M1 Related - ETSY has started to put in higher lows for the first time since its nearly 60% drop off highs. For now the key area to break is this 160 area. I have increased by allocation a few percent after taking profits back at the end of 2021 and will look to increase it again once it clears 160.
HUBG is still putting in higher pivot lows as it continues to work towards the Blue Sky Breakout level of 87, we just need to give it time to get ready for that next leg higher.
M1 Related - SHOP is a great lesson as to why we do not want to bargain hunt when it looks cheap, a few months go when it was 50% off high, it looked like a deal, yet it still had another 50% drop from the current levels before it was finally ready to bottom. It still can test that $500 area however as it starts to break the steep downtrend, the worst could be behind it.
M1 Related - Now that we are seeing SNAP finally put in a higher low, next up we just need to see a break of the overall downtrend it has been in for nearly 2 quarters. This is why it is so important to remember that when names gap down on earnings it can take quarters or half a year before they can start to change course.
We have a few exciting experiences planned for the year ahead. We hope you find a trip that sparks your interest to come enjoy and network with other like minded members!
2nd Annual Blue Ridge Rally April 22nd to 24th
2nd Annual Blue Ridge Rally
We have a big announcement for the upcoming rally!
Shake will be joining us this year in his high end RV that does 0-60 in 14 seconds flat.
We have 2 open spots for members who would like to attend.
This trip starts in New Jersey, if you are local and want to join in on the fun, shoot me a message on GroupMe to learn more!
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