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Broad Market Outlook
It's funny how the difference of a few companies reporting can have such a drastic effect on our overall outlook on the market.
Facebook gaps down 20% and it seems as if the market was going to come crashing down, yet the next day with Amazon, AMD and SNAP reporting, they seemed to tells us the opposite was true and there was hope in the market again. I know, I used a bad word.
Now maybe the fact that we had already retraced 50% of the most recent lows helped add fuel to that confidence fire, who knows.
It does seem for the most part that the correction turning into a bear market seems to be in the rear view as we continue to shift into a range bound market as the market starts to accept that higher rates should be expected in the future.
For the most part, it seems as if most names have already bottomed out and have bounced off there respective lows. As we trade in the middle of this range, this is the tricky part becuase we are in no mans land.
Take the SPY for example, the range is 420 to 480, do we want to buy 460 where our realistic upside is 20 points higher while our real out is 40 points lower? The answer is probably not.
The reason why I mentioned the SPY is that it can be a tool to trade throughout the year on very, very specific days. Out of 200 trading days in the year, there are maybe a handful of days where you can find safer trading set ups in the broad market then individual names.
However this is not an approach that should be on the game plan daily or consistently as it will often just lead to over trading and missing the forest for the trees.
In this range bound market, we need to be playing more strategic, waiting for 3rd day down to buy up through the prior HOD, not buying the 3rd or 4th day up into the extended moves.
We will continue to see those big percentage days as names are finding new lows and bouncing off them but do not let them fool you. SNAP was a great example of this, yes I am very glad that the name gaped up 60% yet its pretty much still near its 52 week lows and no where near any profit taking territories.
When you see names that are up 5-10% in a day and you may think "if only I bought some" zoom out and look at the 50% drop it had over the last month and you will probably think other wise.
It's only a matter of time before we see new highs, however just because that is in the cards, it does not mean that we can't see new 52 week lows before that happens.
From Ben G
SPY
Dow Jones
Nasdaq
Mid Caps
Small Caps
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Handbook Updates
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Sector Rotation
Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
Tech
Energy
Industrial
Telecom
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"Don’t tell me what you think, just tell me what’s in your portfolio"
PS before you open an account at TD, reply to this email with: Your full name and email to get a $50 bonus
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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
Materials
Consumer Discretionary
Financials
REIT
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Do You Have The Patience to Make It On the Leader Board?
Or the PnL?
Email a screenshot of your YTD PnL to be added!
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Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
Consumer Staples
Healthcare
Bio Tech
Utilities
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Big Picture Set Up
MS
The former employer is doing amazing without me, this is probably one of the best bull flags out in the market right now, still needs some time to tighten up.
PAYC
PAYC down trend as aggressive as it has been seems to to starting to slow down as $300 continues to act as support. If earnings can send this name up through 340 would be one to keep on the radar, if it gaps under 300, will be off the radar for some time.
SNAP
For those in SNAP, that 60% down sounds amazing but its still close to its 52 week lows where taking profits is not really on the mind for quite some time. I've added a few times to SNAP post its last earnings and have a cost basis of our $40 a share in this name. Pretty close to where it closed on Friday, I will not look to take any profits until we get back near the ATH's.
These are these lessons of buying low and aiming to sell high that you should start to be picking up for those using M1.
UPS
With the gap up on earnings taking out new all time highs, the hand sitting of UPS continues with a stop vs 192 for now.
WYNN
This WYNN has been basing nicely for the last few months, with earnings coming up, that could be what's needed to push it up out of this base.
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Traveling Experts
We have a few exciting experiences planned for the year ahead. We hope you find a trip that sparks your interest to come enjoy and network with other like minded members!
Dates:
2nd Annual Blue Ridge Rally May 13th to 15th
1st Annual Private Track Day June 9th
2nd Annual Long Beach Island June 15th to 19th
6th Annual Vermont Retreat Jan 19th to 23rd 2023
5th Annual Vermont Retreat
Video from this Vermont Retreat!
2nd Annual Blue Ridge Rally
Interested in racing down back country roads driving McLaren's, Porsches, Aston Martin's and more? Reserve Your Spot Today
1st Annual Private Track Day
We rented out a private race track in New York in June for exotic car racing and motorcycle racing! If you would like to learn more about this event let me know!
2nd Annual Long Beach Island
Video from the last beach week vacation!
If you would like to come soak up some sun at the beach this year with a handful of Trading Experts Alpha Members reserve your spot today!
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