Broad Market Outlook
There is no doubt that there are some real fears in this market right now, with the fallout of Silicon Valley Bank, most investors and practically anyone with money sitting in a checking account are on edge. In reality our cash is safe as the FDIC has for the first time moved the needle from covering $250,000 in depositors money to an unlimited covering. A small step that once put in place, cannot be undone as it would be the least American thing possible.
Given that a bank failure hasn't really been spoken about in more then a decade as I try to remember those scary days of 2008 when my trading account was down an impressive 80% when the market was only down 50%. Even back then a few hundred banks failed, investors got hosed such as yours truly. Yet depositors never got the short end of the stick, even during those very scary times that lasted for more than a year and a half.
In the crypto space that is a different story as we saw with the SBF scandal but the government (FDIC) is not going to let any one here lose some of there hard earned green backs due to a banks mistakes.
Even with that being said, it will still take time for that narrative to show its true colors as people try to rush to take there money out of banks for the next week or so, until they move on with there lives.
We saw something something similar during the meme error when Robinhood became public enemy number one with most up in arms and claiming to pull their money and move to another broker. Sure some did, most just complained and stayed. There will be some people who got nuts and park all there money under the mattress, but most will talk about it, yet leave the cash at the current bank.
As most are trying to clutch as much cash as they can, the current breakdowns we are seeing in the market, seem to be a trend in the short term that may continue into the short term.
Yet, after another shakeout and flush lower, we should be ready to find some support buy backs. For now it won't hurt to be in the cash sitting crowd as there will be a time very soon to leave that crowd as we put that cash to work.
Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
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Defensive - sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
Big Picture Set Up
This CAG has started to form a mini base under the sneaky buy back level of 36, would like to see it base longer so it is more defined of a set up but one to keep on the radar in the meantime.
This KRTX has been basing for a few months now as it finally attempts to break the broader breakdown stage instead the smaller base. We want to find a tighter entry up through 200 as currently it is too wide vs 180 for 10% risk.
MNST still setting up for this 105 blue sky breakout, yet it still is a bit wide in this 5% range vs 100.
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