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Broad Market Outlook
Everywhere we look we see Blue Sky Breakouts, SPY, Nasdaq, Tech, Telecom, Consumer Discretionary's and even Healthcare. It might have been easier to simply mention what wasn't in Blue Sky territory.
As we all know, the market tends to follow the path of least resistance and for right now that answer seems to be pointed higher. As most are sitting with profitable portfolios of a basket of winners. Unless of course you are playing in a different sand box (options, crypto, etc).
Right now the SPY is steering the ship with the rest of the market follow suit. As we have mentioned in the past with each additional 100 points added to the SPY the actual percent moves becomes smaller.
SPY 200 to 300 is a 50% move
SPY 300 to 400 is a 33% move
SPY 400 to 500 is a 25% move
As obvious as this is, most investors do not understand this, just as they don't understand that its the dollar amount invested that determines your potential profits, not the number of shares you purchase.
In the short term the measured move of this recent Blue Sky Breakout in the SPY would send it to 440ish. Yet there is really not much in the markets way to continue to inch higher to the next psychological magnet of 500 by the end of the year.
On the flip side if I am completely wrong in my outlook, we have the $414 pivot low and the $400 psychological support level to remind us when to fold em if the market rather nose dive then inch higher this summer.
From Ben G
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Macro Rotation Outlook
SPY
Dow Jones
Nasdaq
MDY Mid Caps
IWM Small Caps
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Sector Rotation
Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
VGT Tech
VDE Energy
VIS Industrial
VOX Telecom
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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
VAW Materials
VCR Consumer Discretionary
VFH Financials
VNQ REIT
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Defensive- sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
VDC Consumer Staples
VHT Healthcare
IBB Bio Tech
VPU Utilities
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Big Picture Set Up
AMZN
Took some profits in AMZN as it ran up to the prior high and lost momentum, after barely being able to pull back, it is worth a shot to be apart of the next attempt at blue sky's vs the recent pivot low.
DIS
DIS continues to flag out in a tight range as the 200 day catches up, was a bit early on the first buy, will add above $178 when its ready.
GILD
This GILD has been basing for almost 4 years now, so this is no one we really need to rush into as this is a weekly chart. In time we want to be ready when it wants to enter the breakout stage.
INTC
Was a bit early on the INTC buy however it continues to put in a higher low as it stays above the 200 day, will add above $58.
MMC
Same $132 stop after it put in a high lower and new all time high.
MXIM
Stop still the same vs $98, giving the winner space to continue to inch higher.
NFLX
NFLX was basing in stage 1 under $510 and has just started to enter stage 2 as it has broke out recently and filled the gap. There is still a high probability that it will come back to retest that $510 area before making a real move back to highs.
RCKT
Started a position in RCKT while it continues to base out with a stop vs $42, in time will look to add above $48 as it leaves stage 1 and enters stage 2.
SNAP
SNAP has finally left its current basing stage and has starting to shift into its breakout stage, as long as the pull backs put in higher lows, we should be patient, for now the current pivot low is $59. The first target to take profits should be the retest.
UBER
UBER still flagging nicely in this $4 range as it continues to set up for a move back to highs in time.
UPS
UPS is still forming a nice wide flag in this $30 range, if/when the time comes that its ready to take out new all time highs, I will look to add to this swing. For now just being patient.
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Traveling Experts
We have a few exciting experiences planned for the year ahead. We hope you find a trip that sparks your interest to come enjoy and network with other like minded members!
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