Broad Market Outlook
As the market has faded nearly half of the new year rally, it closed the week in a somewhat pivotal spot in the short term.
Since we put the current low in October, the market has shifted away from a lower low and lower high market, into a higher low and higher market. Or as one could simply say, a trending market.
As much as this perfect green trend line to hold and for the market to turn back up through 400 and climb to a new short term high. We have to remember that unlike the run ups to resistance where the stock or market often can stop on a dime at major levels. On the way down, when emotions are high, the selling pressure often has to get streteched just a bit farther then most want.
As much as we want 390 to hold or hope for the 380 area to hold, sometimes the market still needs to shake the tree a bit harder before the next run up can start.
As a group, we have done an amazing job as our patience as increased over the years that sitting out is not the hardest thing to do.
From a passive apporach, nothing changes as we welcome and appreicate the fluctuations and drops out of the market. As most members saw last year that with a market that dropped 21% dollar cost averaging every week without fail lead to some impressive returns with some even ending the year profitable.
From an active side, I have been take a much more concentrated apporach focusing on a few top ideas, and sizing up when the risk is tight. While having not a second thought of getting back into cash if the stock is not reacting as one would expect.
Even with the overall market weakness there are still a few names setting up, GL is still flagging high and tight near all time highs. OTIS is flagging nicely near its short term high and names like AME and MNST still range bound within there broader full flags.
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Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
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Defensive - sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
Big Picture Set Up
As AME continues to pull in within its broader bull flag, we can continue to bring down our buy stops to catch the turn. 148 is the blue sky entry area while for now after we can see a pivot low form, we can start a feeler position up through 144.
GL continues to bull flag under the blue sky area of 124, the 120 area is holding so perfectly, we almost should expect a shakeout of that area before any real break out is to come.
This KRTX has been basing out for a few months now inside of the overall breakdown stage it has been in. After a somewhat decent earnings report, KRTX continues to respect 180 as support, if it continues to base out, we want to look for an entry when it can attempt to break the overall downtrend that it has been in since August.
OTIS is bull flagging nicely in a $2.50 flag in front of this 85 level, this is not a blue sky breakout but still a nice tight risk flag that we can take advantage of.
Got triggered into UPS late in the day on Friday after gapping down eariler in the week and trading back up near the prior breakout level. UPS looked prime for a sneaky support buy back late in the week. For now keeping the stop vs the gap down low area of 176 with the goal of selling nearly resistance around 190.
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