Broad Market Outlook
After a great start to the new year with the market rallying more then 12% out of the gate, as the months changed so has the market. We saw the market start to cool off a bit just when most thought the run up would continue as we often think so in the moment.
As the market did a great job of finally breaking the stage 4 breakdown stage it has been in for all of 2022. It has a new foe to contest with and that is the stage 1 base as 420 continues to act as major resistance for the overall market.
In the short term, one would like to hope that 400 continues to act as support where the market can form a tight 5% range for an evenutal breakout of 420, however I would be a bit skeptic if that was going to be the case.
Just like any stock or major market, we often need to see what we would not expect, that shakeout that no one expected to occur, before the next upward move can really begin in the name.
The current trendline in the S&P 500 right now could make a case for 400 to hold, yet if it does and we continue to flag between that and 420, I would not be too thrilled for any major base breakout to follow. We most likely will need to see the "new 52 week low" headlines out of the market before we will see this major base really break with some power.
There are still a decent amout of names bull flagging near highs and names pulling into support setting up for support buy backs, yet this is a time to be very selective. Focus on the best ideas, keep the risk tight and keep it simple often are the easiest ways to navigate the market.
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Macro Rotation Outlook
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Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
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Defensive - sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
Big Picture Set Up
Not the bigget fan of the sub $30 names however this GLNG is setting up for a nice little flag up through $24 on a dollars worth of risk.
With earnings out of the way and $2 risk, LW is looking as text book as possible for a Blue Sky Breakout.
MNST is setting up for a Blue Sky Breakout through the $104 all time high vs $102 for now, with earnings in March we have some time if it wants to breakout before earnings.
QSR is setting up for a textbook Blue Sky Breakout with everything we would like to see, four major attempts at the level, higher pivot lows, the only thing holding us back is earning in a few days. They may take the trade away from us but if they give us an ORB then we can take advantage of that.
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