Broad Market Outlook
With the broad market smoking the low on Friday, we did a great job as a group letting that crowded train pass by as the next stop was further south.
Now that the market is in new scary territory, we still want to step back and let others cram into the crowded train cars full of emotional passengers.
Recession, housing crash, mortgage rates all seem so scary right now, when just a few months ago it was Russian and Ukraine that were going to crash the market and before that you could continue to insert scary headlines that pass with the time and are often so hard to recall.
From a trading standpoint, it is wise to keep those bullets in the chamber and ready for use. Cash is a position and a great one to have stock in when things really get bad. It only just started to drizzle, when it really starts to downpour is when we want to use that cash.
But on the investing side, as much as we want to time these drops or wait for better deals, remember, market timing is the least effective strategy over the long term. The most effective one? Time in the market, keep the long term plans as simple as possible, while with the alpha seeking, active trading approach, be more nimble and open minded to change at a moments notice.
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Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
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Defensive - sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
Big Picture Set Up
HUM has broken this $500 level often the time that we are the most focused on it, yet after it fades and comes back, can often be a great sneaky buy back entry when most move on from the name. Keeping HUM on the radar if it wants to sneak back up through $500 in time.
NFLX continues to flag out in this base as it works it way towards being ready to break up through this 250 area into the gap fill, the higher lows forming lately also help add some conviction to this idea.
VRTX continues to flag tightly up here near its 52 week all time high area of $300, as the market continues to take out lows, this name has not be fazed, worth keeping alerts set near this 300 level should the mark turn, one could expect to be one of the first names to catch a bid.
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