Broad Market Outlook
The market went on an impressive 16% end of summer run on quite the steep uptrend that, like always, no one saw coming. On Friday we caught a massively scary (kidding) 1% down day that for now seems to have broken the steep trend we have been on as the broad market stalled into major resistance.
As much as people will say charts don't matter, the market just so happened to stall out after a 70 point run up off 52 weeks lows as this resistance level becomes more significant.
Broadly the new range is huge in the SPY between 360 to 430 creating a 20% range. Even if we hung out in this range for another year, we would have plenty of trades to keep food on the table and the next round paid for. Higgins you got the next few rounds my friend.
Now as much as opinions about the market can change almost daily based on new information, in the short term, the easy move seems to be over and just as fast as they rise, we never expect them to fall even faster, yet they often do.
Just like a bad relationship, we want to tell ourselves that this time its going to be different, yet it often is the same song on a different day.
Broadly I still feel we see new highs going into 2023 but this year position wise the theme continues to be buy the ugly and sell the pretty.
Market wise, most things look extremely beautiful as the SPY retests a major pivot high, Utilities are at new highs and Industrial's and Dow 30 names near the upper end of there ranges. Everything looks great, yet you just turned your head at dinner as a pretty girl walked by and Mrs. Market is about to slap you when you were just looking for the waiter to order desert.
Macro Rotation Outlook