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Broad Market Outlook
After a rough start to the year, things were not looking to great towards the end of May as we entered into a technical bear market for 1 trading day. The slowly drop over the last nearly half year was what made 24 hour bear market feel like an eternity.
Mr Market truly has an endless array of tricks up his sleeve as the last crash back in 2020 was so fast and aggressive, most would assume the same to repeat itself but not this time. Paint drying slow of a drop was what Mr Market served up to keep everyone as clueless as the next to what his next act is going to be.
Now Mr Market may seem to most that he has an endless array of tricks but that is only because no one records him as he presents his tricks. Luckily for us, we do review his tricks and see if this is a new trick or one that hes pulled before.
Back in 2019, we had a similar bear market, chart pattern wise as our current market. In 2018 we were grinding to new all time highs, sold off, started to trade in a range and then broke down for a 20% drop from highs. It took only 2 months and 4 months from the low, we were right back at highs with everything being perfect in the world again.
This time around, it seems to be the same trick, shown at a much slower pace. This 20% drop took nearly half a year, but for now who is to say that by end of year the market could not be back at all time highs.
The 10 Year for now seems to have topped out and for now looks to be putting in lower highs.
If we moved the decimal points and pretended we owned this $295 stock from $180, we would more then likely be trying to sell into this bounce before the roll over.
I think the super aggressive rate rising from the FED will start to pull back, just my two cents, as the broad everything under the sun rally is starting to fad. They can cheer lead that the rate rising helped, which it just as well might have but we have been seeing the cooling off in every investment vehicle that benefited the last 2 years from rising inflation.
As the rates continue what I would assume is a move in the low 2's by end of year, that could be one factor that could help push the market back towards its prior highs. Something that no one anywhere is talking about, the only talk we see is "is a recession coming?" yet most cant define what a recession even is.
Just when everyone is looking down below, its time to start looking up.
From Bennett
SPY
Dow Jones
Nasdaq
Mid Caps
Small Caps
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31-1 Handbook Trade
Since the market has been crappy, I want to offer you a 31 -1 trade!
We need to get our reviews up, so we would like to offer you a trade, if you invest $9 in our 3 kindle books and leave us a review for each. We will offer you a $250 credit towards the Trading Experts Comma Day Watch!
Once you order and leave the 3 reviews please shoot me a direct message on GroupMe!
So far 31% of the watches that we have ordered have been scooped up! If you would like to get on the list and save 50% off this watch and watch travel case once the finished products arrive in a few months, take advantage while you can because once we have them in stock, we will only offer them at full price!
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Sector Rotation
Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
Tech
Energy
Industrial
Telecom
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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
Materials
Consumer Discretionary
Financials
REIT
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Tax Experts
We have reviewed quite a few tax returns so far and have yet to find one where we could not have added value.
We recently found a member who paid a tax penalty because his tax guy put he contributed $12,000 into his Roth when he only contributed the max. He paid a penalty for this persons mistake without being aware and his tax guy made up the most ridiculous excuse, it was just embarrassing.
What is the worst case of getting a 2nd opinion from someone who has successfully filed over 4,000 tax returns?
Let's have a second look at your tax return, if we can't find a way to save you taxes on this or next years return, we will give you a months membership free.
Worst case you get a free months membership!
Defensive - sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
Consumer Staples
Healthcare
Bio Tech
Utilities
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Monday Group Calls
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Big Picture Set Up
BMY
Last time BMY attempted that $78 it was still too early, we can see it is still holding up above 73 where we could look to start a feeler position and look to add through the break out area of 78 in time.
CHRW
CHRW is still flagging nicely in this 12% range under this Blue Sky Breakout area, one to keep on the radar for when the time comes that this name wants to see new highs!
FB
It has now been 2 quarters of FB earnings in the books from the last big gap down and we are starting to see the base forming in FB, it is still far from out of the woodshed. However the worst may have already been priced in the name for now. This $200 could be a spot to keep an eye or even a candidate to start a position if using M1 and you have conviction in FB.
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Traveling Experts
We have a few exciting experiences planned for the year ahead. We hope you find a trip that sparks your interest to come enjoy and network with other like minded members!
Dates:
1st Annual Private Track Day June 9th
2nd Annual Long Beach Island June 15th to 19th
1st Annual Private Track Day
Less then 3 days until the next Trading Experts Event!!!!!!
If you live in NJ/NY Area and would like to come please let me know asap!
2nd Annual Long Beach Island
Video from the last beach week vacation!
Less then 2 weeks until the following Trading Experts Event!!!!!!
If you live in NJ/NY Area and would like to come please let me know asap!
If you would like to come soak up some sun at the beach this year with a handful of Trading Experts Alpha Members reserve your spot today!
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